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Estimating stocks and flows of electric passenger vehicle batteries in the Norwegian fleet from 2011 to 2030

Author

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  • Rebecca Thorne
  • Fernando Aguilar Lopez
  • Erik Figenbaum
  • Lasse Fridstrøm
  • Daniel Beat Müller

Abstract

Retired passenger battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are expected to generate significant volumes of lithium‐ion batteries (LIBs), opening business opportunities for second life and recycling. In order to evaluate these, robust estimates of the future quantity and composition of LIBs are imperative. Here, we analyzed BEV fate in the Norwegian passenger vehicle fleet and estimated the corresponding battery capacity in retired vehicles from 2011 to 2030, using a stock‐flow vehicle cohort model linked to analysis of the battery types and sizes contained in different BEVs. Results based on this combination of modeled and highly disaggregated technical data show that (i) the LIB energy capacity available for second use or recycling from end‐of‐life vehicles is expected to reach 0.6 GWh in 2025 and 2.1 GWh in 2030 (not accounting for any losses); (ii) most LIBs are currently contained within the weight segment 1500–1599 kg followed by 2000+ kg; (iii) highest sales currently exist for BEVs containing lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide (NMC) batteries; and (iv) lithium nickel cobalt aluminum oxide batteries initially constitute the largest overall capacity in retired vehicles, but will later be surpassed by NMCs. The results demonstrate rapidly growing opportunities for businesses to make use of retired batteries and a necessity to adapt to changing battery types and sizes.

Suggested Citation

  • Rebecca Thorne & Fernando Aguilar Lopez & Erik Figenbaum & Lasse Fridstrøm & Daniel Beat Müller, 2021. "Estimating stocks and flows of electric passenger vehicle batteries in the Norwegian fleet from 2011 to 2030," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 25(6), pages 1529-1542, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:inecol:v:25:y:2021:i:6:p:1529-1542
    DOI: 10.1111/jiec.13186
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Fernando Aguilar Lopez & Romain G. Billy & Daniel B. Müller, 2022. "A product–component framework for modeling stock dynamics and its application for electric vehicles and lithium‐ion batteries," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 26(5), pages 1605-1615, October.
    2. Li, Chen & Mogollón, José M. & Tukker, Arnold & Dong, Jianning & von Terzi, Dominic & Zhang, Chunbo & Steubing, Bernhard, 2022. "Future material requirements for global sustainable offshore wind energy development," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    3. Jol Böttcher & Max Rettenmeier, 2026. "Disassembly of End-of-Life Automotive Traction Batteries: An Analysis and Benchmark of Location Factors in Germany," Circular Economy and Sustainability, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 1-26, April.
    4. Pasi Rönkkö & Jukka Majava & Tatu Hyvärinen & Ilari Oksanen & Pekka Tervonen & Ulla Lassi, 2024. "The circular economy of electric vehicle batteries: a Finnish case study," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 100-113, March.

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