IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/growch/v52y2021i2p990-1010.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The variations in individual consumption change and the substitution effect under the shock of COVID‐19: Evidence from payment system data in China

Author

Listed:
  • Jie Xu
  • Ming Gao
  • Yina Zhang

Abstract

Over the last two decades, scholars have pointed to the significance of the impact of extreme events on consumption, a prominent part of national economies. How does the COVID‐19 epidemic influence consumption? Using high‐frequency payment system panel data, we explicitly consider the individual consumption changes and the substitution effect between online and offline markets of multiple categories by constructing autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models and conducting regression analyses. The p value and regression coefficients of the substitution elasticity are used to estimate the changes and the substitution effects from the offline to the online channels. The results show that consumption saw a remarkable decline after the surge of COVID‐19 in 2020 compared to 2019. Overall, online markets were more resilient than the offline markets and the substitution effects after the epidemic's outbreak between the online and offline markets were significant for one‐third of the consumption categories. However, the online market could not replace the offline market for some categories due to the product characteristics. The vulnerable industries in the face of the epidemic's intervention are determined as being traditional catering, transportation, tourism, and education, and the shortage of healthcare services in extreme events is also pointed out. The results provide suggestions for policies on targeted enterprises and public service.

Suggested Citation

  • Jie Xu & Ming Gao & Yina Zhang, 2021. "The variations in individual consumption change and the substitution effect under the shock of COVID‐19: Evidence from payment system data in China," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(2), pages 990-1010, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:growch:v:52:y:2021:i:2:p:990-1010
    DOI: 10.1111/grow.12477
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/grow.12477
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/grow.12477?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter J. Danaher & Isaac W. Wilson & Robert A. Davis, 2003. "A Comparison of Online and Offline Consumer Brand Loyalty," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 22(4), pages 461-476, February.
    2. Martin S Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo & Mathias Trabandt, 2021. "The Macroeconomics of Epidemics [Economic activity and the spread of viral diseases: Evidence from high frequency data]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(11), pages 5149-5187.
    3. Hahm, Joon-Ho, 1998. "Consumption adjustment to real interest rates: Intertemporal substitution revisited," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 293-320, February.
    4. David E. Bloom & David Canning, 2006. "Epidemics and Economics," PGDA Working Papers 0906, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
    5. Robert J. Barro & José F. Ursúa & Joanna Weng, 2020. "The Coronavirus and the Great Influenza Pandemic: Lessons from the “Spanish Flu” for the Coronavirus’s Potential Effects on Mortality and Economic Activity," NBER Working Papers 26866, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Hall, Robert E, 1988. "Intertemporal Substitution in Consumption," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 339-357, April.
    7. Donald Hanna & Yiping Huang, 2004. "The Impact of SARS on Asian Economies," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 3(1), pages 102-112.
    8. Quaas, Martin F. & Baumgärtner, Stefan & Drupp, Moritz A. & Meya, Jasper N., 2020. "Intertemporal utility with heterogeneous goods and constant elasticity of substitution," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    9. Chun Ping Chang & Aziz N Berdiev, 2013. "Natural Disasters, Political Risk and Insurance Market Development," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 38(3), pages 406-448, July.
    10. Matthew Gentzkow, 2007. "Valuing New Goods in a Model with Complementarity: Online Newspapers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 713-744, June.
    11. Eunae Jung & Hyungun Sung, 2017. "The Influence of the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Outbreak on Online and Offline Markets for Retail Sales," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-23, March.
    12. Chu, Junhong & Arce-Urriza, Marta & Cebollada-Calvo, José-Javier & Chintagunta, Pradeep K., 2010. "An Empirical Analysis of Shopping Behavior Across Online and Offline Channels for Grocery Products: The Moderating Effects of Household and Product Characteristics," Journal of Interactive Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 251-268.
    13. David Cashin & Takashi Unayama, 2016. "Measuring Intertemporal Substitution in Consumption: Evidence from a VAT Increase in Japan," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(2), pages 285-297, May.
    14. Campbell, John Y. & Mankiw, N. Gregory, 1991. "The response of consumption to income : A cross-country investigation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 723-756, May.
    15. Auteri, Monica & Costantini, Mauro, 2010. "A panel cointegration approach to estimating substitution elasticities in consumption," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 782-787, May.
    16. Hojin Jung & Minjae Park & Kihoon Hong & Eunjung Hyun, 2016. "The Impact of an Epidemic Outbreak on Consumer Expenditures:An Empirical Assessment for MERS Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(5), pages 1-15, May.
    17. Grewal, Dhruv & Iyer, Gopalkrishnan R. & Levy, Michael, 2004. "Internet retailing: enablers, limiters and market consequences," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 57(7), pages 703-713, July.
    18. John W. Galbraith & Greg Tkacz, 2013. "Analyzing Economic Effects of September 11 and Other Extreme Events Using Debit and Payments System Data," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 39(1), pages 119-134, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Luo, Sumei & Sun, Yongkun & Zhou, Rui, 2022. "Can fintech innovation promote household consumption? Evidence from China family panel studies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Julian Thimme, 2017. "Intertemporal Substitution In Consumption: A Literature Review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 226-257, February.
    2. Eunae Jung & Hyungun Sung, 2017. "The Influence of the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Outbreak on Online and Offline Markets for Retail Sales," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-23, March.
    3. Brendan Epstein & Miles S. Kimball, 2014. "The Decline of Drudgery and the Paradox of Hard Work," International Finance Discussion Papers 1106, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Sarantis, Nicholas & Stewart, Chris, 2003. "Liquidity constraints, precautionary saving and aggregate consumption: an international comparison," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 1151-1173, December.
    5. Tomas Havranek & Anna Sokolova, 2016. "Do Consumers Really Follow a Rule of Thumb? Three Thousand Estimates from 130 Studies Say "Probably Not"," Working Papers 2016/08, Czech National Bank.
    6. Stefano d’Addona & Christos Giannikos, 2014. "Asset pricing and the role of macroeconomic volatility," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 197-215, May.
    7. Vipul Bhatt & N. Kundan Kishor & Hardik Marfatia, 2020. "Estimating Excess Sensitivity and Habit Persistence in Consumption Using Greenbook Forecasts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 82(2), pages 257-284, April.
    8. Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2021. "Macroeconomic effects of COVID‐19: A mid‐term review," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(4), pages 439-458, October.
    9. Crump, Richard K. & Eusepi, Stefano & Tambalotti, Andrea & Topa, Giorgio, 2022. "Subjective intertemporal substitution," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 118-133.
    10. Louis-Philippe Beland & Abel Brodeur & Taylor Wright, 2020. "COVID-19, Stay-at-Home Orders and Employment: Evidence from CPS Data," Carleton Economic Papers 20-04, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised 19 May 2020.
    11. Houštecká, Anna & Koh, Dongya & Santaeulàlia-Llopis, Raül, 2021. "Contagion at work: Occupations, industries and human contact," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    12. Gopal K. Basak & Chandramauli Chakraborty & Pranab Kumar Das, 2021. "Optimal Lockdown Strategy in a Pandemic: An Exploratory Analysis for Covid-19," Papers 2109.02512, arXiv.org.
    13. Feras A. Batarseh & Munisamy Gopinath & Anderson Monken, 2020. "Artificial Intelligence Methods for Evaluating Global Trade Flows," International Finance Discussion Papers 1296, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    14. Berg Lennart & Bergström Reinhold, 1996. "Consumer Confidence and Consumption in Sweden," Working Paper Series 1996:7, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    15. Rebucci, Alessandro & Chudik, Alexander & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2020. "Voluntary and Mandatory Social Distancing: Evidence on COVID-19 Exposure Rates from Chinese Provinces and Selected Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 14646, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Bernard Njindan Iyke & Sin‐Yu Ho, 2020. "Consumption and exchange rate uncertainty: Evidence from selected Asian countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(9), pages 2437-2462, September.
    17. Hausmann, Ricardo & Schetter, Ulrich, 2022. "Horrible trade-offs in a pandemic: Poverty, fiscal space, policy, and welfare," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    18. Magda Kandil & Ida Mirzaie, 2006. "Consumption and macroeconomic policies: Theory and evidence from developing countries," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(4), pages 469-491.
    19. Gielens, Katrijn & Steenkamp, Jan-Benedict E.M., 2019. "Branding in the era of digital (dis)intermediation," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 367-384.
    20. Kjellberg, David & Post, Erik, 2007. "A Critical Look at Measures of Macroeconomic Uncertainty," Working Paper Series 2007:14, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:growch:v:52:y:2021:i:2:p:990-1010. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0017-4815 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.