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The Impact of Sovereign Rating News on European Banks

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  • Stefano Caselli
  • Gino Gandolfi
  • Maria Gaia Soana

Abstract

This paper examines the spillover effect of Eurozone sovereign rating changes announced by Standard and Poor's, Moody's, and Fitch on domestic bank share prices in the period 2002–2012. This spillover effect appears negative in the case of downgrades, but insignificant for upgrades. Surprisingly, announcement of sovereign negative credit watches results in increased bank stock returns. Bank share price losses following sovereign downgrades increase as bank leverage, efficiency, and equity performance increase, and they decrease as bank systematic risk and payout ratio increase. On the contrary, bank share prices rise following sovereign negative credit watches, as leverage and bank size decrease and as bank systematic risk increases.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefano Caselli & Gino Gandolfi & Maria Gaia Soana, 2016. "The Impact of Sovereign Rating News on European Banks," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 22(1), pages 142-167, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:eufman:v:22:y:2016:i:1:p:142-167
    DOI: 10.1111/eufm.12056
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    Cited by:

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    2. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Maia, João Pedro Neves, 2023. "Who speaks louder, financial instruments or credit rating agencies? Analyzing the effects of different sovereign risk measures on interest rates in Brazil," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    3. Hu, Haoshen & Prokop, Jörg & Trautwein, Hans-Michael, 2022. "Transnational spillover effects of European sovereign rating signals on bank stock returns," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 171-182.
    4. Abad, Pilar & Alsakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain, 2018. "The influence of rating levels and rating convergence on the spillover effects of sovereign credit actions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 40-57.
    5. Schertler, Andrea & Moch, Nils, 2021. "Bank foreign assets, government support and international spillover effects of sovereign rating events on bank stock prices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    6. Diego Silveira Pacheco de Oliveira & Gabriel Caldas Montes, 2020. "Sovereign credit news and disagreement in expectations about the exchange rate: evidence from Brazil," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 48(3), pages 660-698, August.
    7. Hu, Haoshen & Prokop, Jörg & Shi, Yukun & Trautwein, Hans-Michael, 2020. "The rating spillover from banks to sovereigns: An empirical investigation across the European Union," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    8. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Valladares, Matheus & de Moraes, Claudio Oliveira, 2021. "Impacts of the sovereign risk perception on financial stability: Evidence from Brazil," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 358-369.
    9. Abreu, Emmanuel Sousa de & Kimura, Herbert & Sobreiro, Vinicius Amorim, 2019. "What is going on with studies on banking efficiency?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 195-219.
    10. Andreas Chouliaras & Theoharry Grammatikos, 2017. "Extreme Returns in the European financial crisis," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 23(4), pages 728-760, September.
    11. Vu, Huong & Alsakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain, 2022. "Does competition improve sovereign credit rating quality?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).

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