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Short Term Econometric Forecasting and Seasonal Adjustment

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  • GEORGE BABICH
  • JOHN GOODHEW

Abstract

Seasonal behaviour in the variables of an econometric model is usually handled in one of two ways—either the data are adjusted prior to estimation, or seasonal binary variables are included in the specification and estimation of the model. Although the literature on the subject is extensive, it is not obvious which of these procedures is best for forecasting. This paper compares the forecasting ability of a small model of the Australian economy for each of the alternative approaches to seasonal adjustment.

Suggested Citation

  • George Babich & John Goodhew, 1978. "Short Term Econometric Forecasting and Seasonal Adjustment," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 54(2), pages 229-236, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:54:y:1978:i:2:p:229-236
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1475-4932.1978.tb00332.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael C. Lovell, 1963. "Seasonal Adjustment of Economic Time Series and Multiple Regression," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 151, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    2. Jacob A. Mincer & Victor Zarnowitz, 1969. "The Evaluation of Economic Forecasts," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Forecasts and Expectations: Analysis of Forecasting Behavior and Performance, pages 3-46, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Pagan, Adrian, 1974. "A Generalised Approach to the Treatment of Autocorrelation," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(23), pages 267-280, December.
    4. Wallis, Kenneth F, 1972. "Testing for Fourth Order Autocorrelation in Qtrly Regression Equations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 40(4), pages 617-636, July.
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