IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/ecopol/v37y2025i1p304-340.html

Development strategy, infrastructure, and premature deindustrialization: Comparing Asian, African, and Latin American economies

Author

Listed:
  • Valeria Lauria
  • Justin Yifu Lin
  • Xin Wang
  • Yawen Zheng

Abstract

This paper investigates the phenomenon of premature deindustrialization in developing countries, with a focus on Latin America and sub‐Saharan Africa, and examines why this trend primarily occurs in these regions rather than in East Asia. Through a comparative analysis of industrialization experiences across different economies since the 1960s, the paper argues that premature deindustrialization results from a combination of liberalization shocks, development strategies that defy comparative advantage, and inadequate infrastructure supply due to the lack of active state involvement in its provision driven by prevailing neoliberal ideas. This study empirically validates this hypothesis using country‐sector‐level data from 40 economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Valeria Lauria & Justin Yifu Lin & Xin Wang & Yawen Zheng, 2025. "Development strategy, infrastructure, and premature deindustrialization: Comparing Asian, African, and Latin American economies," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 304-340, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecopol:v:37:y:2025:i:1:p:304-340
    DOI: 10.1111/ecpo.12319
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/ecpo.12319
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/ecpo.12319?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Justin Yifu Lin, 2011. "New Structural Economics: A Framework for Rethinking Development," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 26(2), pages 193-221, August.
    2. Robert Rowthorn & Ramana Ramaswamy, 1999. "Growth, Trade, and Deindustrialization," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(1), pages 1-2.
    3. Dave Donaldson, 2018. "Railroads of the Raj: Estimating the Impact of Transportation Infrastructure," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(4-5), pages 899-934, April.
    4. Michael Sposi & Jing Zhang & Kei-Mu Yi, 2019. "Structural Change and Deindustrialization," 2019 Meeting Papers 1328, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Nathan Nunn, 2007. "Relationship-Specificity, Incomplete Contracts, and the Pattern of Trade," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 122(2), pages 569-600.
    6. Krueger, Anne O, 1990. "Government Failures in Development," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 9-23, Summer.
    7. Murphy, Kevin M & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1989. "Industrialization and the Big Push," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(5), pages 1003-1026, October.
    8. Wu, Mingqin & Yu, Linhui & Zhang, Junsen, 2023. "Road expansion, allocative efficiency, and pro-competitive effect of transport infrastructure: Evidence from China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    9. Dinlersoz, Emin M. & Fu, Zhe, 2022. "Infrastructure investment and growth in China: A quantitative assessment," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    10. Amir Lebdioui, 2019. "Chile's Export Diversification since 1960: A Free Market Miracle or Mirage?," Development and Change, International Institute of Social Studies, vol. 50(6), pages 1624-1663, November.
    11. Lin, Justin Yifu, 2003. "Development Strategy, Viability, and Economic Convergence," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(2), pages 276-308, January.
    12. Palma, J.G., 2010. "Why has productivity growth stagnated in most Latin-American countries since the neo-liberal reforms? (Revised 26-07-2011)," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1030, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    13. Justin Yifu Lin, Fang Cai, and Zhou Li, 1996. "The Lessons of China's Transition to a Market Economy," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 16(2), pages 201-231, Fall.
    14. John Williamson, 2004. "The strange history of the Washington consensus," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(2), pages 195-206.
    15. John Romalis, 2004. "Factor Proportions and the Structure of Commodity Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 67-97, March.
    16. Canning, David, 1998. "A database of world infrastructure stocks, 1950-95," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1929, The World Bank.
    17. Ms. Anja Baum, 2020. "Vietnam's Development Success Story and the Unfinished SDG Agenda," IMF Working Papers 2020/031, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Levine, Ross & Zervos, Sara, 1998. "Stock Markets, Banks, and Economic Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 537-558, June.
    19. Banerjee, Abhijit & Duflo, Esther & Qian, Nancy, 2020. "On the road: Access to transportation infrastructure and economic growth in China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    20. Anthony J. Venables, 2016. "Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has It Proven So Difficult?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 30(1), pages 161-184, Winter.
    21. Fiona Tregenna, 2016. "Deindustrialization and premature deindustrialization," Chapters, in: Erik S. Reinert & Jayati Ghosh & Rainer Kattel (ed.), Handbook of Alternative Theories of Economic Development, chapter 38, pages 710-728, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    22. Harrison, Ann E. & Lin, Justin Yifu & Xu, Lixin Colin, 2014. "Explaining Africa’s (Dis)advantage," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 59-77.
    23. Chor, Davin, 2010. "Unpacking sources of comparative advantage: A quantitative approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 152-167, November.
    24. Abu Bakkar Siddique, 2016. "Comparative Advantage Defying Development Strategy and Cross Country Poverty Incidence," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 41(4), pages 45-78, December.
    25. Canning, David, 1998. "A Database of World Stocks of Infrastructure, 1950-95," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 12(3), pages 529-547, September.
    26. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2020. "Comparative Advantage Following (CAF) development strategy, Aid for Trade flows and structural change in production," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 9(1), pages 1-29, December.
    27. Easterly, William, 2001. "The Lost Decades: Developing Countries' Stagnation in Spite of Policy Reform 1980-1998," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 135-157, June.
    28. Dani Rodrik, 2016. "Premature deindustrialization," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 1-33, March.
    29. Randolph Luca Bruno & Elodie Douarin & Julia Korosteleva & Slavo Radosevic, 2015. "Technology choices and growth: testing New Structural Economics in Transition Economies," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 131-152, June.
    30. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew Warner, 1995. "Economic Reform and the Process of Global Integration," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 1-118.
    31. Tregenna, Fiona, 2015. "Deindustrialisation, structural change and sustainable economic growth," MERIT Working Papers 2015-032, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    32. Haraguchi, Nobuya & Cheng, Charles Fang Chin & Smeets, Eveline, 2017. "The Importance of Manufacturing in Economic Development: Has This Changed?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 293-315.
    33. Nunn, Nathan & Trefler, Daniel, 2014. "Domestic Institutions as a Source of Comparative Advantage," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 263-315, Elsevier.
    34. Randolph Luca Bruno & Elodie Douarin & Julia Korosteleva & Slavo Radosevic, 2015. "Technology choices and growth: testing New Structural Economics in Transition Economies," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 131-152, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kouakou Jean Fidele SIÉ, 2023. "Industrial policy and labour productivity growth in Africa: does the technology choice matter?," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 12(1), pages 1-24, December.
    2. Shiufai Wong, 2025. "Developing electric vehicles in China and the United States: Revisiting debates on industrial strategy," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 43(1), January.
    3. Gavresi, Despina & Litina, Anastasia & Tsiachtsiras, Georgios, 2025. "Motorways and railroads to trust," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    4. Kabinet Kaba & Justin Yifu Lin & Mary‐Françoise Renard, 2022. "Structural change and trade openness in sub‐Saharan African countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(7), pages 2101-2134, July.
    5. Zhenxiong Huang & Hangtian Xu & Jianming Li & Nengsheng Luo, 2020. "Has highway construction narrowed the urban–rural income gap? Evidence from Chinese cities," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 99(3), pages 705-723, June.
    6. Antonio Ciccone & Elias Papaioannou, 2023. "Estimating Cross-Industry Cross-Country Interaction Models Using Benchmark Industry Characteristics," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 133(649), pages 130-158.
    7. Stephan Huber, 2018. "Trade Patterns and Endogenous Institutions: Global Evidence," Contributions to Economics, in: Product Characteristics in International Economics, chapter 0, pages 91-120, Springer.
    8. Jiajie Yu & Shuang Meng, 2023. "How Does Trade Openness Affect Output Growth? A Perspective from the Input Diversity," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-21, June.
    9. Crinò, Rosario & Ogliari, Laura, 2017. "Financial imperfections, product quality, and international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 63-84.
    10. Hanson, Gordon & Liu, Chen, 2023. "Immigration and occupational comparative advantage," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    11. Das, Joy & Tanger, Shaun & Fannin, J. Matthew & Kennedy, P. Lynn, 2020. "Institutional Determinant of Market Concentration and Trade in a General Equilibrium Setup," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304458, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    12. Jaimovich, Esteban, 2019. "Roadways, input sourcing, and patterns of specialization," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    13. Krishna, Pravin & Levchenko, Andrei A., 2013. "Comparative advantage, complexity, and volatility," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 314-329.
    14. Kohler, Wilhelm & Kukharskyy, Bohdan, 2019. "Offshoring under uncertainty," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 158-180.
    15. Despina Gavresi & Anastasia Litina & George Tsiachtsiras, 2022. "Railways and Roadways to Trust," Discussion Paper Series 2022_08, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Sep 2022.
    16. Cheng‐Te Lee & Shang‐Fen Wu, 2023. "Technology advantage, terms of trade, and pattern of trade," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 19(1), pages 166-174, March.
    17. Armando J. Garcia Pires & José Pedro Pontes, 2021. "(De)Industrialization, Technology and Transportation," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(3), pages 527-538, July.
    18. Agnes Kügler & Andreas Reinstaller & Klaus S. Friesenbichler, 2023. "Can value chain integration explain the diverging economic performance within the EU?," Economia e Politica Industriale: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, Springer;Associazione Amici di Economia e Politica Industriale, vol. 50(1), pages 25-47, March.
    19. Weisong Cheng & Jingrun Shao & Liu Cui & Wenhao Song, 2025. "The Impact of Highway Construction on the Profits of Agricultural Enterprises: Evidence From China," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 56(6), pages 856-873, November.
    20. Cai, Jie & Stoyanov, Andrey, 2016. "Population aging and comparative advantage," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 1-21.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:ecopol:v:37:y:2025:i:1:p:304-340. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0954-1985 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.