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Liquidity and Twin Crises

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  • Hyun Song

Abstract

This paper proposes a simple analytical framework for understanding 'twin crises'- i.e. crises where a currency crisis and banking crisis occur simultaneously and reinforce each other. The distinguishing feature of such crises is the spill-over effects across financial institutions through collateral constraints, declines in market values of assets, currency mismatches on the balance sheet and the endogenous amplification of financial distress through asset sales. We explore the role of liquidity and the role of monetary policy in such crises. In particular, a central question is whether raising interest rates in the face of a twin crisis is the appropriate policy response. Raising interest rates has two countervailing effects. Holding the domestic currency becomes more attractive (other things being equal), but the value of the domestic banking system falls due to the fall in asset prices. When assets are marked to market, there is a potential for endogenously generated financial distress that leads to a collapse of asset prices, as well as the exchange rate. It is thus possible that raising interest rates can have the perverse effect of exacerbating both the currency crisis and the banking crisis. Copyright Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, 2005

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  • Hyun Song, 2005. "Liquidity and Twin Crises," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 34(3), pages 257-277, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecnote:v:34:y:2005:i:3:p:257-277
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Martin D.D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 6, pages 247-290 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Barry Eichengreen & Michael D. Bordo, 2003. "Crises now and then: what lessons from the last era of financial globalization?," Chapters,in: Monetary History, Exchange Rates and Financial Markets, chapter 3 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Miller, Victoria, 1998. "The Double Drain with a Cross-Border Twist: More on the Relationship between Banking and Currency Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 439-443, May.
    4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    5. Schnabel, Isabel, 2004. "The German Twin Crisis of 1931," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 64(03), pages 822-871, September.
    6. Joon-Ho Hahm & Frederic S. Mishkin, 2000. "Causes of the Korean Financial Crisis: Lessons for Policy," NBER Working Papers 7483, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Rodrigo Cifuentes & Hyun Song Shin & Gianluigi Ferrucci, 2005. "Liquidity Risk and Contagion," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, pages 556-566.
    8. Michael J. Fleming & Eli M. Remolona, 1999. "Price Formation and Liquidity in the U.S. Treasury Market: The Response to Public Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1901-1915, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Maurice Obstfeld & Jay C. Shambaugh & Alan M. Taylor, 2010. "Financial Stability, the Trilemma, and International Reserves," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 57-94, April.

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