Population Density, Economic Growth and Societies in Transition: Boserup Reconsidered in a Kenyan Case‐study

In examining the relationship between population growth and income growth, this article first looks at the Malthusian, transition and revisionist positions. The first is not borne out by historical experience, and the latter two do not explain why greater affluence generally leads to lower rates of population growth. It is argued here that the crucial population characteristic is density. Rising densities from a low base facilitate more productive agriculture and greater specialization and exchange within a society, as Boserup (1965) pointed out. This leads to increased wealth but also to higher costs for education and land. This provides a link to Caldwell's (1976) explanation of changing attitudes to family size: at low densities in simple societies benefits from children exceed costs, while at higher densities in complex societies costs exceed benefits. The changes in societies and economies are illustrated by a Kenyan case study. Kenya has experienced particularly rapid population growth this century, and high economic growth; it is now experiencing the transition to lower birth rates.