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Financial Innovation and Divisia Money in Taiwan: Comparative Evidence from Neural Network and Vector Error‐Correction Forecasting Models

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  • Jane M. Binner
  • Alicia M. Gazely
  • Shu‐Heng Chen
  • Bin‐Tzong Chie

Abstract

In this article a Divisia monetary index is constructed for the Taiwan economy, and its inflation forecasting potential is compared with that of its traditional simple sum counterpart. The Divisia index is adjusted in two ways to allow for the financial liberalization that Taiwan has experienced since the 1970s. The powerful artificial intelligence technique of neural networks is used and is found to beat the conventional econometric techniques in a simple inflation forecasting experiment. The preferred inflation forecasting model is achieved using networks that employ a Divisia M2 measure of money that has been adjusted to incorporate a learning mechanism to allow individuals to gradually alter their perceptions of the increased productivity of money. The explanatory power of the two innovation‐adjusted Divisia aggregates dominates that of the simple sum counterpart in the majority of cases. (JEL C4, E4, E5)

Suggested Citation

  • Jane M. Binner & Alicia M. Gazely & Shu‐Heng Chen & Bin‐Tzong Chie, 2004. "Financial Innovation and Divisia Money in Taiwan: Comparative Evidence from Neural Network and Vector Error‐Correction Forecasting Models," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 22(2), pages 213-224, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:coecpo:v:22:y:2004:i:2:p:213-224
    DOI: 10.1093/cep/byh015
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. El-Shagi, Makram & Tochkov, Kiril, 2022. "Divisia monetary aggregates for Russia: Money demand, GDP nowcasting and the price puzzle," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(4).
    2. Rana Ejaz Ali Khan & Qazi Muhammad Adnan Hye, 2013. "Financial liberalization and demand for money: a case of Pakistan," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 47(2), pages 175-198, July-Dece.
    3. Panayotis G. Michaelides & Efthymios G. Tsionas & Angelos T. Vouldis & Konstantinos N. Konstantakis & Panagiotis Patrinos, 2018. "A Semi-Parametric Non-linear Neural Network Filter: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 51(3), pages 637-675, March.
    4. Farzan Aminian & E. Suarez & Mehran Aminian & Daniel Walz, 2006. "Forecasting Economic Data with Neural Networks," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 28(1), pages 71-88, August.
    5. Jane Binner & Rakesh Bissoondeeal & Thomas Elger & Alicia Gazely & Andrew Mullineux, 2005. "A comparison of linear forecasting models and neural networks: an application to Euro inflation and Euro Divisia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(6), pages 665-680.
    6. Jane M. Binner & logan J. Kelly, 2017. "Modelling Money Shocks in a Small Open Economy: The Case of Taiwan," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 85, pages 104-120, September.
    7. James, Gregory A., 2005. "Money demand and financial liberalization in Indonesia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 817-829, October.
    8. Shahid IQBAL & Maqbool H. SIAL, 2016. "Projections of Inflation Dynamics for Pakistan: GMDH Approach," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 3(3), pages 536-559, September.
    9. Rosita Capurro & Michele Galeotti & Stefano Garzella, 2018. ""Mondo reale-tradizionale" e "mondo digitale", strategie aziendali e web intelligence: il futuro del controllo e della gestione delle informazioni," MANAGEMENT CONTROL, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2018(2 Suppl.), pages 83-111.
    10. Masudul Hasan Adil & Neeraj Hatekar & Pravakar Sahoo, 2020. "The Impact of Financial Innovation on the Money Demand Function: An Empirical Verification in India," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 14(1), pages 28-61, February.

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    JEL classification:

    • C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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