IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/chinae/v31y2023i1p62-87.html

The Future of Multilateralism in the Post‐pandemic World

Author

Listed:
  • Ligang Song
  • Vishesh Agarwal

Abstract

This paper applies an endogenous institutionalist framework to understand the evolution of the rules‐based international trading system since the end of World War II. We argue that the initial success of the General Agreement on Trade and Tariffs and re‐enforcement that led to the formation of the WTO can be explained by three major factors: the hegemonic position of the US, the belief that international trade would foster prosperity and peace, and Cold War politics. However, declining US hegemony along with a shift in global comparative advantage in labor‐intensive manufacturing led to a shift from multilateral towards preferential trade agreements since the 1990s. Today, the WTO faces several new challenges, including increasing geo‐political competition between the US and China, increasing digitization of commerce, and disrupted supply chains following COVID‐19. A functioning WTO that facilitates global economic re‐integration remains crucial to ensure a strong recovery from the pandemic and continued long‐term prosperity and stability of the global economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Ligang Song & Vishesh Agarwal, 2023. "The Future of Multilateralism in the Post‐pandemic World," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 31(1), pages 62-87, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:chinae:v:31:y:2023:i:1:p:62-87
    DOI: 10.1111/cwe.12459
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/cwe.12459
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/cwe.12459?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Greif, Avner & Laitin, David D., 2004. "A Theory of Endogenous Institutional Change," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 98(4), pages 633-652, November.
    2. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2013. "The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2121-2168, October.
    3. Greif,Avner, 2006. "Institutions and the Path to the Modern Economy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521480444, Enero-Abr.
    4. Caroline Freund & Emanuel Ornelas, 2010. "Regional trade agreements: blessing or burden?," CentrePiece - The magazine for economic performance 313, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    5. Caroline Freund & Emanuel Ornelas, 2010. "Regional Trade Agreements," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 2(1), pages 139-166, September.
    6. Roger Strange, 2020. "The 2020 Covid-19 pandemic and global value chains," Economia e Politica Industriale: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, Springer;Associazione Amici di Economia e Politica Industriale, vol. 47(3), pages 455-465, September.
    7. Ana C. Dammert & Sarah Mohan, 2015. "A Survey Of The Economics Of Fair Trade," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(5), pages 855-868, December.
    8. Zhi Wang & Shang-Jin Wei & Xinding Yu & Kunfu Zhu, 2018. "Re-examining the Effects of Trading with China on Local Labor Markets: A Supply Chain Perspective," NBER Working Papers 24886, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2015. "Untangling Trade and Technology: Evidence from Local Labour Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(584), pages 621-646, May.
    10. Bernard Hoekman, 2020. "WTO Reform Priorities post-COVID-19," East Asian Economic Review, Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, vol. 24(4), pages 337-348.
    11. Raymond Riezman, 1999. "Can Bilateral Trade Agreements Help Induce Free Trade," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 32(3), pages 751-766, May.
    12. Eriksson, Katherine & Russ, Katheryn N. & Shambaugh, Jay C. & Xu, Minfei, 2021. "Reprint: Trade shocks and the shifting landscape of U.S. manufacturing," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    13. Daron Acemoglu & David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson & Brendan Price, 2016. "Import Competition and the Great US Employment Sag of the 2000s," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(S1), pages 141-198.
    14. L. Alan Winters & Antonio Martuscelli, 2014. "Trade Liberalization and Poverty: What Have We Learned in a Decade?," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 6(1), pages 493-512, October.
    15. Michele Boldrin & David Levine, 2002. "The Case Against Intellectual Property," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 209-212, May.
    16. Ornelas, Emanuel, 2005. "Trade creating free trade areas and the undermining of multilateralism," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(7), pages 1717-1735, October.
    17. Pravin Krishna, 1998. "Regionalism and Multilateralism: A Political Economy Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(1), pages 227-251.
    18. Levy, Philip I, 1997. "A Political-Economic Analysis of Free-Trade Agreements," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(4), pages 506-519, September.
    19. David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon Hanson & Kaveh Majlesi, 2020. "Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(10), pages 3139-3183, October.
    20. Feenstra, Robert C. & Ma, Hong & Xu, Yuan, 2019. "US exports and employment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 46-58.
    21. Avinash Dixit, 2012. "Paul Samuelson's Legacy," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 1-31, July.
    22. John McLaren, 2002. "A Theory of Insidious Regionalism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(2), pages 571-608.
    23. Eriksson, Katherine & Russ, Katheryn N. & Shambaugh, Jay C. & Xu, Minfei, 2021. "Trade shocks and the shifting landscape of U.S. manufacturing," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    24. Yang, Lei & Maskus, Keith E., 2009. "Intellectual property rights, technology transfer and exports in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 231-236, November.
    25. Amiti, Mary & Dai, Mi & Feenstra, Robert C. & Romalis, John, 2020. "How did China's WTO entry affect U.S. prices?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    26. Bernard Hoekman & Robert Wolfe, 2021. "Reforming the World Trade Organization: Practitioner Perspectives from China, the EU, and the US," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 29(4), pages 1-34, July.
    27. Ligang Song & Yixiao Zhou, 2020. "The COVID‐19 Pandemic and Its Impact on the Global Economy: What Does It Take to Turn Crisis into Opportunity?," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 28(4), pages 1-25, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lake, James & Nken, Moïse & Yildiz, Halis Murat, 2020. "Tariff bindings and the dynamic formation of Preferential Trade Agreements," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    2. Kyle Bagwell & Chad P. Bown & Robert W. Staiger, 2016. "Is the WTO Passé?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1125-1231, December.
    3. Staiger, Robert & Bagwell, Kyle & Bown, Chad, 2015. "Is the WTO Passé?," CEPR Discussion Papers 10672, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Lake, James & Roy, Santanu, 2017. "Are global trade negotiations behind a fragmented world of “gated globalization”?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 117-136.
    5. repec:smu:ecowpa:1409 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Marco Fugazza & Frédéric Robert-Nicoud, 2014. "The “Emulator Effect” of the Uruguay Round on US Regionalism," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(5), pages 1049-1078, November.
    7. Mrázová, Monika & Vines, David & Zissimos, Ben, 2013. "Is the GATT/WTO's Article XXIV bad?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 216-232.
    8. Nken, Moïse & Yildiz, Halis Murat, 2017. "Implications of multilateral tariff bindings on the formation of preferential trade agreements and quest for global free trade," MPRA Paper 83209, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. James Lake, 2017. "Free Trade Agreements As Dynamic Farsighted Networks," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(1), pages 31-50, January.
    10. Kuenzel, David J. & Sharma, Rishi R., 2021. "Preferential trade agreements and MFN tariffs: Global evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    11. Endoh, Masahiro, 2023. "The China shock and job reallocation in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    12. Kozo Kiyota & Sawako Maruyama & Mina Taniguchi, 2021. "The China syndrome: A cross‐country evidence," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(9), pages 2758-2792, September.
    13. Shuhei Kainuma & Yukiko U. Saito, 2022. "China's impact on regional employment: Propagation through input–output linkages and co‐location patterns," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(11), pages 3559-3601, November.
    14. Eric Conglin Chi & Halis Murat Yildiz, 2024. "Dynamic preferential trade agreement formation and the role of political economy," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 62(2), pages 748-781, April.
    15. Moïse Nken & Halis Murat Yildiz, 2022. "Implications of multilateral tariff bindings on the extent of preferential trade agreement formation," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 73(1), pages 301-347, February.
    16. Andreas M. Fischer & Philipp Herkenhoff & Philip Sauré, 2023. "Identifying Chinese supply shocks: Effects of trade on labor markets," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(4), pages 1476-1507, September.
    17. Furtado, Delia & Kong, Haiyang, 2021. "How Do Low-Skilled Immigrants Adjust to Chinese Import Shocks? Evidence Using English Language Proficiency," IZA Discussion Papers 14152, IZA Network @ LISER.
    18. Emanuel Ornelas, 2025. "Political Competition and the Strategic Adoption of Free Trade Agreements," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 380-392, May.
    19. Ornelas, Emanuel, 2012. "Preferential trade agreements and the labor market," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 121752, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    20. Stoyanov, Andrey & Yildiz, Halis Murat, 2015. "Preferential versus multilateral trade liberalization and the role of political economy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 140-164.
    21. Paul Missios & Kamal Saggi & Halis Murat Yildiz, 2018. "External trade diversion, exclusion incentives and the nature of preferential trade agreements," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Kamal Saggi (ed.), Economic Analysis of the Rules and Regulations of the World Trade Organization, chapter 10, pages 223-237, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:chinae:v:31:y:2023:i:1:p:62-87. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iwepacn.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.