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The Decline In Male Employment In Australia: A Cohort Analysis

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  • DAVID BLACK
  • YI‐PING TSENG
  • ROGER WILKINS

Abstract

We use Census data to investigate the sources of the decline in the level of employment of working age males in Australia in recent decades. Alternative measures of the male employment rate are considered before settling on two complementary measures: the full‐time employment rate and the full‐time equivalent employment rate. The latter measure weights part‐time jobs according to the fraction of a full‐time job they represent. Models of the determinants of these two employment rates are estimated using data from the Censuses conducted between 1971 and 2001. We construct a pseudo panel by ‘stacking’ the seven Census data sets (Deaton, 1997; Kapteyn, et al., 2005). This facilitates the tracing of birth cohorts over time, in turn making it possible to control for cohort unobserved heterogeneity that may bias cross‐sectional estimates of effects of other characteristics, in particular age and year/time period. We produce evidence that a number of factors have contributed to the decline in male employment, including the decline in couple households with dependent children, growth in income taxes and welfare replacement rates and changes in the structure of labour demand away from traditionally male‐dominated industries. We also find that, all else (observable) constant, more recent birth cohorts have no lower – and possibly higher – employment rates than earlier birth cohorts.

Suggested Citation

  • David Black & Yi‐Ping Tseng & Roger Wilkins, 2010. "The Decline In Male Employment In Australia: A Cohort Analysis," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(3), pages 180-199, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ausecp:v:49:y:2010:i:3:p:180-199
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-8454.2010.00395.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Joanna Abhayaratna & Les Andrews & Hudan Nuch & Troy Podbury, 2008. "Part Time Employment: the Australian Experience," Staff Working Papers 0805, Productivity Commission, Government of Australia.
    2. Kamal, Mustafa & Blacklow, Paul, 2021. "Australian age, period, cohort effects in the gender wage gap - 2001 to 2018," Working Papers 2021-02, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.

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