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The importance of seasonal variability and tactical responses to risk on estimating the economic benefits of integrated weed management

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  • Randall Jones
  • Oscar Cacho
  • Jack Sinden

Abstract

Seasonal variability is an important source of risk faced by farmers and, regardless of an individual's attitude to risk, there are options to tactically adjust production strategies as the outcomes of risk become known. The objective of this article is to measure the economic benefits of alternative approaches to managing weeds, one of the most serious production problems in Australian cropping systems. A bioeconomic model that combines weed biology, crop growth and economics is developed to value the effects of seasonal variability and the role of tactical responses and sequential decision making in determining an optimal integrated weed management strategy. This shows that there are substantial differences in the measured long‐term benefits from deterministic and stochastic simulations. It is concluded that, for research evaluation of technologies that involve complex biological and dynamic systems, ignoring the impacts of seasonal variability, responses to risk and sequential decision making can lead to an incorrect estimate of the economic benefits of a technology. In this case study of optimal weed management strategies in Australia, the size of the error is high.

Suggested Citation

  • Randall Jones & Oscar Cacho & Jack Sinden, 2006. "The importance of seasonal variability and tactical responses to risk on estimating the economic benefits of integrated weed management," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 35(3), pages 245-256, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:agecon:v:35:y:2006:i:3:p:245-256
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1574-0862.2006.00159.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. repec:ags:agsaem:288652 is not listed on IDEAS
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    4. Carlson, Gerald A., 1984. "Risk Reducing Inputs Related to Agricultural Pests," Regional Research Projects >1984: S-180 Annual Meeting, March 25-28, 1984, New Orleans, Louisiana 307236, Regional Research Projects > S-180: An Economic Analysis of Risk Management Strategies for Agricultural Production Firms.
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    5. Jacobs, A. & Kingwell, R., 2016. "The Harrington Seed Destructor: Its role and value in farming systems facing the challenge of herbicide-resistant weeds," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 33-40.
    6. Young, Michael & Young, John & Kingwell, Ross S. & Vercoe, Philip E., 2023. "Evaluation of the least cost option to manage pastures in a wet winter in south-eastern Australia," AFBM Journal, Australasian Farm Business Management Network, vol. 20(03), August.
    7. Sneessens, Inès & Sauvée, Loïc & Randrianasolo-Rakotobe, Hanitra & Ingrand, Stéphane, 2019. "A framework to assess the economic vulnerability of farming systems: Application to mixed crop-livestock systems," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
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