IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bdy/modfin/v3y2025i3p1-15id254.html

Sign and size asymmetries between futures and spot prices in the markets of agricultural commodities

Author

Listed:
  • Dimitrios Panagiotou

Abstract

The goal of the present article is to examine asymmetries in sign and size among spot and futures prices in the markets of agricultural commodities of corn, hard red wheat, and soybeans. Daily observations of spot and futures prices for the three agricultural commodities and the econometric tool of local linear regressions have been utilized. The empirical results were obtained for the period between January 2000 and the end of March 2025. The empirical results reveal evidence of asymmetric dependence in sign and size, at the very extremes of the distribution, under extreme negative changes for the commodity of corn and under extreme positive changes for the commodity of soybeans. Accordingly, extreme price increases/decreases of different signs but of the same absolute magnitude are transmitted from futures to spot prices with different intensity. Moreover, large price shocks in value are transmitted from futures to spot prices more forcefully compared to smaller ones. Evidence of sign and size asymmetries might greatly help diversify the traders’ investment risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Dimitrios Panagiotou, 2025. "Sign and size asymmetries between futures and spot prices in the markets of agricultural commodities," Modern Finance, Modern Finance Institute, vol. 3(3), pages 1-15.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdy:modfin:v:3:y:2025:i:3:p:1-15:id:254
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mf-journal.com/article/view/254
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hachmi Ben Ameur & Zied Ftiti & Waël Louhichi, 2022. "Revisiting the relationship between spot and futures markets: evidence from commodity markets and NARDL framework," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(1), pages 171-189, June.
    2. Chen, Xiangyu & Tongurai, Jittima, 2022. "Spillovers and interdependency across base metals: Evidence from China's futures and spot markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    3. Sangram Keshari Jena & Aviral Kumar Tiwari & David Roubaud, 2018. "Comovements of gold futures markets and the spot market," Post-Print hal-02091704, HAL.
    4. Bohl, Martin T. & Siklos, Pierre L. & Stefan, Martin & Wellenreuther, Claudia, 2020. "Price discovery in agricultural commodity markets: Do speculators contribute?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 18(C).
    5. Yongmei Fang & Bo Guan & Xu Huang & Hossein Hassani & Saeed Heravi, 2024. "An Investigation of the Co-Movement between Spot and Futures Prices for Chinese Agricultural Commodities," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 17(7), pages 1-19, July.
    6. Jena, Sangram Keshari & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Roubaud, David, 2018. "Comovements of gold futures markets and the spot market: A wavelet analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 19-24.
    7. Alphonse Singbo & Dislène Sossou, 2024. "Asymmetric spot‐futures prices adjustments in Quebec grain markets," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 72(3), pages 347-363, September.
    8. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
    9. Banerjee, Ameet Kumar & Akhtaruzzaman, Md & Sensoy, Ahmet & Goodell, John W., 2024. "Volatility spillovers and hedging strategies between impact investing and agricultural commodities," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    10. Jean-François Marteau & Jean-François Arvis & Gaël Raballand, 2010. "The Cost of Being Landlocked : Logistics Costs and Supply Chain Reliability," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2489, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hachmi Ben Ameur & Zied Ftiti & Waël Louhichi, 2022. "Revisiting the relationship between spot and futures markets: evidence from commodity markets and NARDL framework," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(1), pages 171-189, June.
    2. Yao, Yinhong & Chen, Xiuwen & Chen, Zhensong, 2025. "Portfolio tail risk forecasting for international financial assets: A GARCH-MIDAS-R-Vine copula model," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    3. Junior, Peterson Owusu & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Padhan, Hemachandra & Alagidede, Imhotep, 2020. "Analysis of EEMD-based quantile-in-quantile approach on spot- futures prices of energy and precious metals in India," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    4. Zhu, Pengfei & Tang, Yong & Wei, Yu & Dai, Yimin, 2019. "Portfolio strategy of International crude oil markets: A study based on multiwavelet denoising-integration MF-DCCA method," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 535(C).
    5. Jena, Sangram Keshari & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Roubaud, David, 2019. "Distributional predictability between commodity spot and futures: Evidence from nonparametric causality-in-quantiles tests," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 615-628.
    6. Bilgili, Faik & Kocak, Emrah & Kuskaya, Sevda & Bulut, Umit, 2022. "Co-movements and causalities between ethanol production and corn prices in the USA: New evidence from wavelet transform analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    7. Sanjay Sehgal & Neharika Sobti & Florent Diesting, 2021. "Who leads in intraday gold price discovery and volatility connectedness: Spot, futures, or exchange‐traded fund?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(7), pages 1092-1123, July.
    8. Szczygielski, Jan Jakub & Charteris, Ailie & Obojska, Lidia, 2023. "Do commodity markets catch a cold from stock markets? Modelling uncertainty spillovers using Google search trends and wavelet coherence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    9. Piñeiro-Chousa, Juan & López-Cabarcos, M. Ángeles & Sevic, Aleksandar & González-López, Isaac, 2022. "A preliminary assessment of the performance of DeFi cryptocurrencies in relation to other financial assets, volatility, and user-generated content," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    10. Omane-Adjepong, Maurice & Alagidede, Imhotep Paul, 2019. "Multiresolution analysis and spillovers of major cryptocurrency markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 191-206.
    11. Sobti, Neharika & Sehgal, Sanjay & Ilango, Balakrishnan, 2021. "How do macroeconomic news surprises affect round-the-clock price discovery of gold?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    12. Qiuying Cheng & Xinyu Wang & Song Shi & Zhuqing Wang, 2025. "Heterogeneous impacts of fundamentals on gold market risk using regime switching quantile-based GARCH-MIDAS model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 69(3), pages 1411-1465, September.
    13. Nana Kwame Akosah & Imhotep Paul Alagidede & Eric Schaling, 2021. "Dynamics of Money Market Interest Rates in Ghana: Time‐Frequency Analysis of Volatility Spillovers," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 89(4), pages 555-589, December.
    14. Maria Immanuvel S & Daniel Lazar, 2022. "Does Volume of Gold Consumption Influence the World Gold Price?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-14, June.
    15. Dejan Živkov & Slavica Manić & Ivan Pavkov, 2022. "Nonlinear examination of the ‘Heat Wave’ and ‘Meteor Shower’ effects between spot and futures markets of the precious metals," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(2), pages 1109-1134, August.
    16. Brian M. Lucey & Maurice Peat & Aleksandar Šević & Samuel A. Vigne, 2021. "What is the optimal weight for gold in a portfolio?," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 297(1), pages 277-291, February.
    17. Thi Hong Van Hoang & Zhenzhen Zhu & Bing Xiao & Wing‐Keung Wong, 2020. "The seasonality of gold prices in China does the risk‐aversion level matter?," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(3), pages 2617-2664, September.
    18. Jiang, Qi & Fan, Yawen, 2024. "Hedging downside risk in agricultural commodities: A novel nonparametric kernel method," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    19. James Nguyen & Wei-Xuan Li & Clara Chia-Sheng Chen, 2022. "Mean Reversions in Major Developed Stock Markets: Recent Evidence from Unit Root, Spectral and Abnormal Return Studies," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-20, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdy:modfin:v:3:y:2025:i:3:p:1-15:id:254. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Adam Zaremba (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://mf-journal.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.