IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bba/j00001/v3y2024i3p1-24d213.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Determinants of terrorism in the MENA region: a Bayesian Model Averaging based approach

Author

Listed:
  • Zohra Aroussi

    (Faculty of Economic Sciences and Management of Sousse, University of Sousse, Sousse, Tunisia)

  • Mekki Hamdaoui

    (Higher Institute of Informatics and Management of Kairouan (ISIGK), Modeling, Financing and Economic Development (MOFID-LR21ES28), University of Kairouan, Kairouan, Tunisia)

  • Mounir Smida

    (Faculty of Economic Sciences and Management of Sousse, University of Sousse, Sousse, Tunisia)

Abstract

In this work we aim to identify potential determinants and seek to predict terrorism attack. Thus, to eliminate uncertainty linked to explanatory variables we used the BMA method. We show that, contrary to expectations terrorism in MENA region is no longer purely of economic origin but mainly due to political problems, education, financial development and countries’ demographic characteristics. Likewise, we find that national, international and global terrorism are not of same origins even they present many common roots. In the end, we show that it is possible to predict majority of attacks based on a small number of indicators measuring political risk, financial development and income inequalities.

Suggested Citation

  • Zohra Aroussi & Mekki Hamdaoui & Mounir Smida, 2024. "Determinants of terrorism in the MENA region: a Bayesian Model Averaging based approach," Journal of Economic Analysis, Anser Press, vol. 3(3), pages 1-24, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bba:j00001:v:3:y:2024:i:3:p:1-24:d:213
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.anserpress.org/journal/jea/3/3/63/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.anserpress.org/journal/jea/3/3/63
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kis-Katos, Krisztina & Liebert, Helge & Schulze, Günther G., 2011. "On the origin of domestic and international terrorism," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(S1), pages 17-36.
    2. Roe, Mark J. & Siegel, Jordan I., 2011. "Political instability: Effects on financial development, roots in the severity of economic inequality," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 279-309, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Flores Zendejas, Juan & Nodari, Gianandrea & Dávalos, Jorge, 2024. "Caudillo banking: political instability and banking fragility in Mexico, 1925-1929," Working Papers unige:180827, University of Geneva, Paul Bairoch Institute of Economic History.
    2. Ibrahim Mohamed Ali Ali & Imed Attiaoui & Rabeh Khalfaoui & Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2022. "The Effect of Urbanization and Industrialization on Income Inequality: An Analysis Based on the Method of Moments Quantile Regression," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 161(1), pages 29-50, May.
    3. Xiaojuan He & Dervis Kirikkaleli & Melike Torun & Zecheng Li, 2021. "Modeling Economic Risk in the QISMUT Countries: Evidence From Nonlinear Cointegration Tests," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(4), pages 21582440211, October.
    4. Brandt, Patrick T. & George, Justin & Sandler, Todd, 2016. "Why concessions should not be made to terrorist kidnappers," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 41-52.
    5. Ballester, Laura & González-Urteaga, Ana & Shen, Long, 2024. "Green bond issuance and credit risk: International evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    6. Pooja Karnane & Michael A. Quinn, 2019. "Political instability, ethnic fractionalization and economic growth," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 435-461, April.
    7. Jomon A. Paul & Aniruddha Bagchi, 2019. "Civil Liberties and Terrorism in Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 275(2), pages 623-651, April.
    8. Lai, Karen M.Y. & Saffar, Walid & Zhu, Xindong (Kevin) & Liu, Yiye, 2020. "Political institutions, stock market liquidity and firm dividend policy: Some international evidence," Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1).
    9. Mahmoud Arayssi & Ali Fakih & Nathir Haimoun, 2019. "Did the Arab Spring reduce MENA countries’ growth?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(19), pages 1579-1585, November.
    10. Le, Anh-Tuan & Tran, Thao Phuong & Mishra, Anil V., 2023. "Climate risk and bank stability: International evidence," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 70.
    11. Freytag, Andreas & Krüger, Jens J. & Meierrieks, Daniel & Schneider, Friedrich, 2011. "The origins of terrorism: Cross-country estimates of socio-economic determinants of terrorism," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(S1), pages 5-16.
    12. Lee, Hui Shan & Cheng, Fan Fah & Chong, Shyue Chuan & Sia, Bik Kai, 2018. "Influence of Macroeconomics Factors and Legal Stability to the Insurance Growth in the ASEAN-5 Countries," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 52(2), pages 219-229.
    13. Ayadi, Rym & Arbak, Emrah & Ben-Naceur, Sami & De Groen, Willem Pieter, 2013. "Benchmarking the Financial Sector in the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean Countries and Projecting 2030 Financial Sector Scenarios," CEPS Papers 7868, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    14. Mamadou Bah & Nelson Abila, 2024. "Institutional determinants of insurance penetration in Africa," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 49(1), pages 138-179, January.
    15. Chris Doucouliagos & Jakob de Haan & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2022. "What drives financial development? A Meta-regression analysis [A new database of financial reforms]," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(3), pages 840-868.
    16. Minkler, Lanse & Prakash, Nishith, 2017. "The role of constitutions on poverty: A cross-national investigation," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 563-581.
    17. Kopp, Thomas & Dorn, Franziska, 2018. "Social equity and ecological sustainability: Can the two be achieved together?," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 357, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    18. Cherif, Mondher & Dreger, Christian, 2016. "Institutional Determinants of Financial Development in MENA countries," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 20(3), pages 670-680.
    19. Nicholas Apergis & Matteo Bonato & Rangan Gupta & Clement Kyei, 2016. "Does Geopolitical Risks Predict Stock Returns and Volatility of Leading Defense Companies? Evidence from a Nonparametric Approach," Working Papers 201671, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    20. Belloc, Filippo & Nicita, Antonio & Sepe, Simone M., 2014. "Disentangling liberalization and privatization policies: Is there a political trade-off?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 1033-1051.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bba:j00001:v:3:y:2024:i:3:p:1-24:d:213. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ramona Wang (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.anserpress.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.