IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bba/j00001/v3y2024i3p1-24d213.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Determinants of terrorism in the MENA region: a Bayesian Model Averaging based approach

Author

Listed:
  • Zohra Aroussi

    (Faculty of Economic Sciences and Management of Sousse, University of Sousse, Sousse, Tunisia)

  • Mekki Hamdaoui

    (Higher Institute of Informatics and Management of Kairouan (ISIGK), Modeling, Financing and Economic Development (MOFID-LR21ES28), University of Kairouan, Kairouan, Tunisia)

  • Mounir Smida

    (Faculty of Economic Sciences and Management of Sousse, University of Sousse, Sousse, Tunisia)

Abstract

In this work we aim to identify potential determinants and seek to predict terrorism attack. Thus, to eliminate uncertainty linked to explanatory variables we used the BMA method. We show that, contrary to expectations terrorism in MENA region is no longer purely of economic origin but mainly due to political problems, education, financial development and countries’ demographic characteristics. Likewise, we find that national, international and global terrorism are not of same origins even they present many common roots. In the end, we show that it is possible to predict majority of attacks based on a small number of indicators measuring political risk, financial development and income inequalities.

Suggested Citation

  • Zohra Aroussi & Mekki Hamdaoui & Mounir Smida, 2024. "Determinants of terrorism in the MENA region: a Bayesian Model Averaging based approach," Journal of Economic Analysis, Anser Press, vol. 3(3), pages 1-24, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bba:j00001:v:3:y:2024:i:3:p:1-24:d:213
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.anserpress.org/journal/jea/3/3/63/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.anserpress.org/journal/jea/3/3/63
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kis-Katos, Krisztina & Liebert, Helge & Schulze, Günther G., 2011. "On the origin of domestic and international terrorism," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(S1), pages 17-36.
    2. Caruso, Raul & Schneider, Friedrich, 2011. "The socio-economic determinants of terrorism and political violence in Western Europe (1994–2007)," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(S1), pages 37-49.
    3. Roe, Mark J. & Siegel, Jordan I., 2011. "Political instability: Effects on financial development, roots in the severity of economic inequality," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 279-309, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Freytag, Andreas & Krüger, Jens J. & Meierrieks, Daniel & Schneider, Friedrich, 2011. "The origins of terrorism: Cross-country estimates of socio-economic determinants of terrorism," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(S1), pages 5-16.
    2. Andra Filote & Niklas Potrafke & Heinrich Ursprung, 2016. "Suicide attacks and religious cleavages," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 166(1), pages 3-28, January.
    3. Sarah Brockhoff & Tim Krieger & Daniel Meierrieks, 2012. "Looking Back on Anger: Explaining the Social Origins of Left-Wing and Nationalist-Separatist Terrorism in Western Europe, 1970-2007," Working Papers CIE 49, Paderborn University, CIE Center for International Economics.
    4. Blum, Matthias & de Bromhead, Alan, 2019. "Rise and fall in the Third Reich: Social advancement and Nazi membership," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    5. Kelejian, Harry H. & Mukerji, Purba, 2022. "Causal factors of terrorist attacks on countries, and corresponding spill-overs between them," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    6. Serfraz, Ayesha, 2017. "What is the effect of foreign direct investment inflows on economic growth in Pakistan? An empirical analysis in the light of religious sectarianism as catalyst for terrorism," ZÖSS-Discussion Papers 59, University of Hamburg, Centre for Economic and Sociological Studies (CESS/ZÖSS).
    7. Economou Athina & Kollias Christos, 2015. "Terrorism and Political Self-Placement in European Union Countries," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 21(2), pages 217-238, April.
    8. Bagchi, Aniruddha & Paul, Jomon A., 2018. "Youth unemployment and terrorism in the MENAP (Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan) region," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 9-20.
    9. Gries, Thomas & Meierrieks, Daniel, 2013. "Do banking crises cause terrorism?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 119(3), pages 321-324.
    10. Ismail, Aisha & Amjad, Shehla, 2014. "Determinants of terrorism in Pakistan: An empirical investigation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 320-331.
    11. Dorsett, Richard, 2013. "The effect of the Troubles on GDP in Northern Ireland," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 119-133.
    12. Shahzad, Umer & Sarwar, Suleman & Farooq, Muhammad Umar & Qin, Fengming, 2020. "USAID, official development assistance and counter terrorism efforts: Pre and post 9/11 analysis for South Asia," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    13. Flores Zendejas, Juan & Nodari, Gianandrea & Dávalos, Jorge, 2024. "Caudillo banking: political instability and banking fragility in Mexico, 1925-1929," Working Papers unige:180827, University of Geneva, Paul Bairoch Institute of Economic History.
    14. Minkler, Lanse & Prakash, Nishith, 2017. "The role of constitutions on poverty: A cross-national investigation," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 563-581.
    15. Apergis, Emmanuel & Apergis, Nicholas, 2016. "The 11/13 Paris terrorist attacks and stock prices: The case of the international defense industry," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 186-192.
    16. Ibrahim Mohamed Ali Ali & Imed Attiaoui & Rabeh Khalfaoui & Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2022. "The Effect of Urbanization and Industrialization on Income Inequality: An Analysis Based on the Method of Moments Quantile Regression," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 161(1), pages 29-50, May.
    17. Roe Mark J., 2012. "Capital Markets and Financial Politics: Preferences and Institutions," Capitalism and Society, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-40, November.
    18. Caruso, Raul & Schneider, Friedrich, 2013. "Brutality of Jihadist terrorism. A contest theory perspective and empirical evidence in the period 2002–2010," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 685-696.
    19. Xiaojuan He & Dervis Kirikkaleli & Melike Torun & Zecheng Li, 2021. "Modeling Economic Risk in the QISMUT Countries: Evidence From Nonlinear Cointegration Tests," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(4), pages 21582440211, October.
    20. Asongu, Simplice A. & Le Roux, Sara & Singh, Pritam, 2021. "Fighting terrorism in Africa: Complementarity between inclusive development, military expenditure and political stability," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(5), pages 897-922.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bba:j00001:v:3:y:2024:i:3:p:1-24:d:213. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ramona Wang (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.anserpress.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.