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Determinants of terrorism in the MENA region: a Bayesian Model Averaging based approach

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  • Zohra Aroussi

    (Faculty of Economic Sciences and Management of Sousse, University of Sousse, Sousse, Tunisia)

  • Mekki Hamdaoui

    (Higher Institute of Informatics and Management of Kairouan (ISIGK), Modeling, Financing and Economic Development (MOFID-LR21ES28), University of Kairouan, Kairouan, Tunisia)

  • Mounir Smida

    (Faculty of Economic Sciences and Management of Sousse, University of Sousse, Sousse, Tunisia)

Abstract

In this work we aim to identify potential determinants and seek to predict terrorism attack. Thus, to eliminate uncertainty linked to explanatory variables we used the BMA method. We show that, contrary to expectations terrorism in MENA region is no longer purely of economic origin but mainly due to political problems, education, financial development and countries’ demographic characteristics. Likewise, we find that national, international and global terrorism are not of same origins even they present many common roots. In the end, we show that it is possible to predict majority of attacks based on a small number of indicators measuring political risk, financial development and income inequalities.

Suggested Citation

  • Zohra Aroussi & Mekki Hamdaoui & Mounir Smida, 2024. "Determinants of terrorism in the MENA region: a Bayesian Model Averaging based approach," Journal of Economic Analysis, Anser Press, vol. 3(3), pages 1-24, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bba:j00001:v:3:y:2024:i:3:p:1-24:d:213
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kis-Katos, Krisztina & Liebert, Helge & Schulze, Günther G., 2011. "On the origin of domestic and international terrorism," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(S1), pages 17-36.
    2. Caruso, Raul & Schneider, Friedrich, 2011. "The socio-economic determinants of terrorism and political violence in Western Europe (1994–2007)," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(S1), pages 37-49.
    3. Roe, Mark J. & Siegel, Jordan I., 2011. "Political instability: Effects on financial development, roots in the severity of economic inequality," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 279-309, September.
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