IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bba/j00001/v2y2023i4p82-97d60.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Probability of Achieving NDC and Implications for Climate Policy: CO-STIRPAT Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Ick Jin

    (Director General, Economic Analysis Department of the National Assembly Budget Office, Seoul, Korea)

Abstract

This paper presents an analytical framework to assess the probability of achieving nationally determined contributions (NDC). The prediction model based on the Kaya identity is used to simulate the pathway of carbon emission until the target year. Applying the modified STIRPAT framework (named CO-STIRPAT) to data observed in South Korea shows that the probability that the predicted pathway with existing climate technology will stay above the NDC target pathway is significantly high. The result suggests that it is necessary to design a climate policy to improve energy intensity and carbon intensity by accelerating the advance in climate technology.

Suggested Citation

  • Ick Jin, 2023. "Probability of Achieving NDC and Implications for Climate Policy: CO-STIRPAT Approach," Journal of Economic Analysis, Anser Press, vol. 2(4), pages 82-97, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bba:j00001:v:2:y:2023:i:4:p:82-97:d:60
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.anserpress.org/journal/jea/2/4/38/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.anserpress.org/journal/jea/2/4/38
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. YoungSeok Hwang & Jung-Sup Um & JunHwa Hwang & Stephan Schlüter, 2020. "Evaluating the Causal Relations between the Kaya Identity Index and ODIAC-Based Fossil Fuel CO 2 Flux," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-20, November.
    2. Arnulf Grubler & Charlie Wilson & Nuno Bento & Benigna Boza-Kiss & Volker Krey & David L. McCollum & Narasimha D. Rao & Keywan Riahi & Joeri Rogelj & Simon Stercke & Jonathan Cullen & Stefan Frank & O, 2018. "A low energy demand scenario for meeting the 1.5 °C target and sustainable development goals without negative emission technologies," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 3(6), pages 515-527, June.
    3. Valentina Bosetti, Carlo Carraro and Marzio Galeotti, 2006. "The Dynamics of Carbon and Energy Intensity in a Model of Endogenous Technical Change," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 191-206.
    4. York, Richard & Rosa, Eugene A. & Dietz, Thomas, 2003. "STIRPAT, IPAT and ImPACT: analytic tools for unpacking the driving forces of environmental impacts," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 351-365, October.
    5. Joeri Rogelj & Michel den Elzen & Niklas Höhne & Taryn Fransen & Hanna Fekete & Harald Winkler & Roberto Schaeffer & Fu Sha & Keywan Riahi & Malte Meinshausen, 2016. "Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 °C," Nature, Nature, vol. 534(7609), pages 631-639, June.
    6. Ang, B.W. & Zhang, F.Q., 2000. "A survey of index decomposition analysis in energy and environmental studies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 25(12), pages 1149-1176.
    7. Mark Roelfsema & Heleen L. Soest & Mathijs Harmsen & Detlef P. Vuuren & Christoph Bertram & Michel Elzen & Niklas Höhne & Gabriela Iacobuta & Volker Krey & Elmar Kriegler & Gunnar Luderer & Keywan Ria, 2020. "Taking stock of national climate policies to evaluate implementation of the Paris Agreement," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-12, December.
    8. Ick Jin, 2018. "Is ESG a systematic risk factor for US equity mutual funds?," Journal of Sustainable Finance & Investment, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 72-93, January.
    9. Ang, B.W., 2006. "Monitoring changes in economy-wide energy efficiency: From energy-GDP ratio to composite efficiency index," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 574-582, March.
    10. Ick Jin & Yunhee Kim, 2017. "Analysis of the impact of achieving NDC on public climate finance," Journal of Sustainable Finance & Investment, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(4), pages 309-334, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yanwei Lyu & Yangyang Bai & Jinning Zhang, 2024. "Green finance policy and enterprise green development: Evidence from China," Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(1), pages 414-432, January.
    2. Li, Hongmei & Xu, Ruizhe, 2023. "Impact of fiscal policies and natural resources on ecological sustainability of BRICS region: Moderating role of green innovation and ecological governance," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Choi, Ki-Hong & Ang, B.W., 2012. "Attribution of changes in Divisia real energy intensity index — An extension to index decomposition analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 171-176.
    2. Azad Haider, 2024. "The Determinants of Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Empirical Evidence from Canadian Provinces," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-21, March.
    3. Pillai N., Vijayamohanan & AM, Narayanan, 2019. "Energy Efficiency: A Sectoral Analysis for Kerala," MPRA Paper 101424, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Juan Wang & Tao Zhao & Xiaohu Zhang, 2017. "Changes in carbon intensity of China’s energy-intensive industries: a combined decomposition and attribution analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 88(3), pages 1655-1675, September.
    5. Zhang, Yan & Zhang, Jinyun & Yang, Zhifeng & Li, Shengsheng, 2011. "Regional differences in the factors that influence China’s energy-related carbon emissions, and potential mitigation strategies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 7712-7718.
    6. van Megen, Bram & Bürer, Meinrad & Patel, Martin K., 2019. "Comparing electricity consumption trends: A multilevel index decomposition analysis of the Genevan and Swiss economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 1-25.
    7. Cahill, Caiman J. & Ó Gallachóir, Brian P., 2012. "Combining physical and economic output data to analyse energy and CO2 emissions trends in industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 422-429.
    8. Wu, F. & Fan, L.W. & Zhou, P. & Zhou, D.Q., 2012. "Industrial energy efficiency with CO2 emissions in China: A nonparametric analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 164-172.
    9. Jaruwan Chontanawat, 2019. "Driving Forces of Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions Based on Expanded IPAT Decomposition Analysis: Evidence from ASEAN and Four Selected Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-23, February.
    10. Amador, João, 2012. "Energy content in manufacturing exports: A cross-country analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1074-1081.
    11. Zhongwu Zhang & Guokui Wang & Xiaojia Guo, 2022. "Long-Term and Short-Term Effects of Carbon Emissions on Regional Healthy Development in Shanxi Province, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-14, April.
    12. Joanne Evans & Massimo Filippini & Lester C. Hunt, 2013. "The contribution of energy efficiency towards meeting CO2 targets," Chapters, in: Roger Fouquet (ed.), Handbook on Energy and Climate Change, chapter 8, pages 175-223, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    13. Xing Zhou & Meihua Zhou & Ming Zhang, 2016. "Contrastive analyses of the influence factors of interprovincial carbon emission induced by industry energy in China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 81(3), pages 1405-1433, April.
    14. Xu, Shi-Chun & He, Zheng-Xia & Long, Ru-Yin, 2014. "Factors that influence carbon emissions due to energy consumption in China: Decomposition analysis using LMDI," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 182-193.
    15. Ang, B.W. & Goh, Tian, 2016. "Carbon intensity of electricity in ASEAN: Drivers, performance and outlook," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 170-179.
    16. Bhadbhade, Navdeep & Yilmaz, Selin & Zuberi, Jibran S. & Eichhammer, Wolfgang & Patel, Martin K., 2020. "The evolution of energy efficiency in Switzerland in the period 2000–2016," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    17. Shahiduzzaman, Md. & Alam, Khorshed, 2013. "Changes in energy efficiency in Australia: A decomposition of aggregate energy intensity using logarithmic mean Divisia approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 341-351.
    18. Su, Bin & Ang, B.W., 2012. "Structural decomposition analysis applied to energy and emissions: Some methodological developments," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 177-188.
    19. Klaus Hubacek & Kuishuang Feng & Bin Chen, 2011. "Changing Lifestyles Towards a Low Carbon Economy: An IPAT Analysis for China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-10, December.
    20. Fernández-Herrero, Laura & Duro, Juan Antonio, 2019. "What causes inequality in Material Productivity between countries?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1-16.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bba:j00001:v:2:y:2023:i:4:p:82-97:d:60. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ramona Wang (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.anserpress.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.