IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bas/econst/y2023i5p32-50.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Sectoral Growth Impacts of Bank Credit Allocation: The Role of COVID-19 Pandemic as Moderating Variable

Author

Listed:
  • Ikhsan Ikhsan
  • Khairul Amri

Abstract

Our study aims to investigate the effect of bank credit on sectoral output growth in Indonesia. The sectoral output comprises the agricultural, manufacturing, construction, wholesale & retail trades, and transport & storage sectors. We position the Covid-19 pandemic as a moderating variable between sectoral economic growth and bank credit. Using monthly time series data from 2015.M1 to 2020.M12, we employ hierarchical linear regression to estimate the functional relationship between variables. The study points out that bank credit positively affects sectoral output. In contrast, the covid-19 pandemic has had a negative effect. Nevertheless, the pandemic moderates the influence of bank credit on the manufacturing, construction, transport & storage sectors but not on the agriculture, wholesales & retail trades sectors.

Suggested Citation

  • Ikhsan Ikhsan & Khairul Amri, 2023. "Sectoral Growth Impacts of Bank Credit Allocation: The Role of COVID-19 Pandemic as Moderating Variable," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 5, pages 32-50.
  • Handle: RePEc:bas:econst:y:2023:i:5:p:32-50
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.iki.bas.bg/Journals/EconomicStudies/2023/2023-5/03_Khairul-Amri.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ahmed, S. M. & Ansari, M. I., 1998. "Financial sector development and economic growth: The South-Asian experience," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 503-517.
    2. Budy P. Resosudarmo & Abdurohman, 2018. "Is Being Stuck with a Five Percent Growth Rate a New Normal for Indonesia?," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(2), pages 141-164, May.
    3. Elnahass, Marwa & Trinh, Vu Quang & Li, Teng, 2021. "Global banking stability in the shadow of Covid-19 outbreak," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    4. Tonći Svilokos & Perica Vojinić & Meri Šuman Tolić, 2019. "The role of the financial sector in the process of industrialisation in Central and Eastern European countries," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 384-402, January.
    5. Gatti, Roberta & Love, Inessa, 2006. "Does access to credit improve productivity ? Evidence from Bulgarian firms," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3921, The World Bank.
    6. Anderson, Edward & d'Orey, Maria Ana Jalles & Duvendack, Maren & Esposito, Lucio, 2018. "Does Government Spending Affect Income Poverty? A Meta-regression Analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 60-71.
    7. Levine, Ross & Zervos, Sara, 1998. "Stock Markets, Banks, and Economic Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 537-558, June.
    8. Ali Madai Boukar & Olivier Mbock & Jean‐Marc Malambwe Kilolo, 2021. "The impacts of the Covid‐19 pandemic on employment in Cameroon: A general equilibrium analysis," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 33(S1), pages 88-101, April.
    9. Hui An & Qianmiao Zou & Mohamed Kargbo, 2021. "Impact of financial development on economic growth: Evidence from Sub‐Saharan Africa," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(2), pages 226-260, June.
    10. Ibrahim M. Awad & Mohammed S. Karaki, 2019. "The impact of bank lending on Palestine economic growth: an econometric analysis of time series data," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 5(1), pages 1-21, December.
    11. Marcello Pagnini & Paola Rossi & Valerio Vacca & Vincenzo Chiorazzo & Vincenzo D'Apice & Pierluigi Morelli & Giovanni Walter Puopolo, 2017. "Economic Activity and Credit Market Linkages: New Evidence From Italy," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 46(3), pages 491-526, November.
    12. Yazidu Ustarz & Ashenafi Beyene Fanta & Wai Ching Poon, 2021. "Financial development and economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa: A sectoral perspective," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 1934976-193, January.
    13. Jagadish Prasad Bist & Nar Bahadur Bista, 2018. "Finance–Growth Nexus in Nepal: An Application of the ARDL Approach in the Presence of Structural Breaks," Vikalpa: The Journal for Decision Makers, , vol. 43(4), pages 236-249, December.
    14. IKHSAN & Cut Dian FITRI & Hafiizh MAULANA & Khairul AMRI, 2020. "Effect Of Inflation On Total Deposits And Financing Of Sharia Commercial Banks: A Monthly Data Evidence From Indonesia," Regional Science Inquiry, Hellenic Association of Regional Scientists, vol. 0(1), pages 103-114, June.
    15. Paul J. Burke & Martin D. Siyaranamual, 2019. "No one left behind in Indonesia?," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(3), pages 269-293, September.
    16. Mollah Aminul Islam & Muhammad Asif Khan & József Popp & Wlodzimierz Sroka & Judit Oláh, 2020. "Financial Development and Foreign Direct Investment—The Moderating Role of Quality Institutions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-22, April.
    17. Victor Chukwunweike Nwokocha & Ogochukwu Christiana Anyanwu & Ignatius Ani Madu & Christopher Emmanuel Nwankwo, 2021. "COVID-19 Pandemic and Small-Scale Industries in a Local Geographic Space of Nigeria: An Assessment of the Impact of Strategic Interfirm Alliance," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(2), pages 21582440211, June.
    18. Jeremy Franklin & May Rostom & Gregory Thwaites, 2020. "The Banks that Said No: the Impact of Credit Supply on Productivity and Wages," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 57(2), pages 149-179, April.
    19. Mert Topcu & Serap Çoban, 2017. "Financial development and firm growth in Turkish manufacturing industry: evidence from heterogeneous panel based non-causality test," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 1758-1769, January.
    20. Akinci, Gönül Yüce & Akinci, Merter & Yilmaz, Ömer, 2014. "Financial Development-Economic Growth Nexus : A Panel Data Analysis Upon Oecd Countries," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 55(1), pages 33-50, June.
    21. Lang, William W. & Nakamura, Leonard I., 1995. "'Flight to quality' in banking and economic activity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 145-164, August.
    22. Saida Daly & Mohamed Frikha, 2016. "Banks and economic growth in developing countries: What about Islamic banks?," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1168728-116, December.
    23. Cong Minh Huynh & Hoai Nam Tran, 2021. "Moderating effects of corruption and informality on the fiscal decentralization—economic growth nexus: Insights from OECD countries," Annals of Public and Cooperative Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 92(2), pages 355-373, June.
    24. Hu, Shiwei & Zhang, Yuyao, 2021. "COVID-19 pandemic and firm performance: Cross-country evidence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 365-372.
    25. Roberta Gatti & Inessa Love, 2008. "Does access to credit improve productivity? Evidence from Bulgaria1," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 16(3), pages 445-465, July.
    26. Miguel Tinoco-Zermeño & Francisco Venegas-Martínez & Víctor Torres-Preciado, 2014. "Growth, bank credit, and inflation in Mexico: evidence from an ARDL-bounds testing approach," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 23(1), pages 1-22, December.
    27. Michał Buszko & Witold Orzeszko & Marcin Stawarz, 2021. "COVID-19 pandemic and stability of stock market—A sectoral approach," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(5), pages 1-26, May.
    28. Demetris Koursaros & Nektarios Michail & Christos Savva, 2021. "Tell me where to stop: thresholds in the bank lending and output growth relationship," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(4), pages 1845-1873, April.
    29. Richard S Gray & Mohammad Torshizi, 2021. "Update to agriculture, transportation, and the COVID‐19 crisis," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 69(2), pages 281-289, June.
    30. Chen, Zhe & Wang, Zhengli & Jiang, Hai, 2019. "Analyzing the heterogeneous impacts of high-speed rail entry on air travel in China: A hierarchical panel regression approach," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 86-98.
    31. Jill Juergensen & José Guimón & Rajneesh Narula, 2020. "European SMEs amidst the COVID-19 crisis: assessing impact and policy responses," Economia e Politica Industriale: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, Springer;Associazione Amici di Economia e Politica Industriale, vol. 47(3), pages 499-510, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andrés Rodríguez‐Pose & Roberto Ganau & Kristina Maslauskaite & Monica Brezzi, 2021. "Credit constraints, labor productivity, and the role of regional institutions: Evidence from manufacturing firms in Europe," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(2), pages 299-328, March.
    2. Silvia Muzi & Filip Jolevski & Kohei Ueda & Domenico Viganola, 2023. "Productivity and firm exit during the COVID-19 crisis: cross-country evidence," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 60(4), pages 1719-1760, April.
    3. Chen, Minjia & Guariglia, Alessandra, 2013. "Internal financial constraints and firm productivity in China: Do liquidity and export behavior make a difference?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 1123-1140.
    4. K A El-Wassal, 2005. "Stock Market Growth: An analysis of cointegration and causality," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 10(1), pages 37-58, March.
    5. Sánchez-Valadez, Manuel, 2012. "Decisiones financieras, competencia en el mercado y desempeño de las empresas: Evidencia empírica para Iberoamérica/Financial Decisions, Market Competition and Firm Performance: Empirical Evidence for," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 30, pages 359(36)-359, Abril.
    6. Nuri Ersahin, 2018. "Creditor Rights, Technology Adoption, and Productivity: Plant-Level Evidence," Working Papers 18-20, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    7. Florian LEON & Laurent WEILL, 2021. "Elections Hinder Firms’ Access to Credit," Working Papers of LaRGE Research Center 2021-03, Laboratoire de Recherche en Gestion et Economie (LaRGE), Université de Strasbourg.
    8. Oliver Asiamah & Samuel Kwaku Agyei, 2023. "Information sharing offices and economic growth in sub‐Saharan Africa," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 35(2), pages 211-225, June.
    9. Islam, Asif M. & Amin, Mohammad, 2023. "The gender labor productivity gap across informal firms," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    10. Osei-Tutu, Francis & Weill, Laurent, 2023. "Democracy favors access to credit of firms," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    11. Liu, Shasha & Yin, Shanshan & Yin, Chuan & Sheng, Yan, 2021. "Does the price of natural resources affect firms’ total factor productivity? Evidence from a natural experiment in China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 37-50.
    12. Vasanthakumar Bhat, 2015. "Water and Its Effect on Business Productivity: A Cross-Country Analysis," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(11), pages 4007-4020, September.
    13. Segarra Blasco, Agustí, 1958- & Teruel, Mercedes, 2010. "Are small firms more sensitive to financial variables?," Working Papers 2072/151623, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.
    14. António Afonso & M. Carmen Blanco-Arana, 2022. "Financial and economic development in the context of the global 2008-09 financial crisis," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 169, pages 30-42.
    15. Sheilla Nyasha & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2017. "Are Banks and Stock Markets Complements Or Substitutes? Empirical Evidence from Three Countries," Managing Global Transitions, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper, vol. 15(1 (Spring), pages 81-101.
    16. Hyland,Marie Caitriona,Islam,Asif Mohammed, 2021. "Gendered Laws, Informal Origins, and Subsequent Performance," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9766, The World Bank.
    17. Levine, Oliver & Warusawitharana, Missaka, 2021. "Finance and productivity growth: Firm-level evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 91-107.
    18. Roberto Ganau, 2016. "Productivity, Credit Constraints and the Role of Short-Run Localization Economies: Micro-Evidence from Italy," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(11), pages 1834-1848, November.
    19. Liu, Shanmin & Zhuo, Yangyuan & Shen, Xinyue & Cai, Mengda & Yang, Ye, 2023. "The impact of declined social insurance contribution rate on enterprise total factor productivity: Evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    20. Kingsley Opoku Appiah & Bismark Addai & Wesley Ekuban & Suzzie Owiredua Aidoo & Joseph Amankwah-Amoah, 2022. "Management research and the impact of COVID-19 on performance: a bibliometric review and suggestions for future research," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 1-20, December.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bas:econst:y:2023:i:5:p:32-50. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Diana Dimitrova (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ikbasbg.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.