IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bas/econst/y2016i3p118-136.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Issues and Challenges for Bankruptcy Risk Assessment in Bulgarian Companies

Author

Listed:
  • Atanas Delev

Abstract

The main purpose of this paper is to analyze the key issues and challenges in assessing the risk of bankruptcy in Bulgarian companies. The results of seven bankruptcy prediction models are analyzed. Significant differences were found between the forecasts that give certain models. The error of the second type of bankruptcy prediction models was analyzed. Certain models have satisfactory error values of the second type, while others have too high values of this error. There is a need of a bankruptcy prediction model that offers adequate performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Atanas Delev, 2016. "Issues and Challenges for Bankruptcy Risk Assessment in Bulgarian Companies," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 3, pages 118-136.
  • Handle: RePEc:bas:econst:y:2016:i:3:p:118-136
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ceeol.com/search/article-detail?id=356006
    Download Restriction: Fee access
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Laitinen, Erkki K., 1992. "Prediction of failure of a newly founded firm," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 323-340, July.
    2. Vidar Gudmundsson, Sveinn, 1999. "Airline failure and distress prediction: a comparison of quantitative and qualitative models," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 155-182, September.
    3. Abbas, Qaiser & Rashid, Abdul, 2011. "Modeling Bankruptcy Prediction for Non-Financial Firms: The Case of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 28161, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Julio Pindado & Luis F. Rodrigues, 2004. "Parsimonious Models of Financial Insolvency in Small Companies," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 51-66, February.
    5. Ohlson, Ja, 1980. "Financial Ratios And The Probabilistic Prediction Of Bankruptcy," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 109-131.
    6. Zmijewski, Me, 1984. "Methodological Issues Related To The Estimation Of Financial Distress Prediction Models," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22, pages 59-82.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pindado, Julio & Rodrigues, Luis & de la Torre, Chabela, 2008. "Estimating financial distress likelihood," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 61(9), pages 995-1003, September.
    2. Jones, Stewart & Wang, Tim, 2019. "Predicting private company failure: A multi-class analysis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 161-188.
    3. Kim, Soo Y. & Upneja, Arun, 2014. "Predicting restaurant financial distress using decision tree and AdaBoosted decision tree models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 354-362.
    4. Ciampi, Francesco, 2015. "Corporate governance characteristics and default prediction modeling for small enterprises. An empirical analysis of Italian firms," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(5), pages 1012-1025.
    5. Bhanu Pratap Singh & Alok Kumar Mishra, 2016. "Re-estimation and comparisons of alternative accounting based bankruptcy prediction models for Indian companies," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 2(1), pages 1-28, December.
    6. Dimitras, A. I. & Zanakis, S. H. & Zopounidis, C., 1996. "A survey of business failures with an emphasis on prediction methods and industrial applications," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 90(3), pages 487-513, May.
    7. Ruey-Ching Hwang & Jhao-Siang Siao & Huimin Chung & C. Chu, 2011. "Assessing bankruptcy prediction models via information content of technical inefficiency," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 263-273, December.
    8. Richardson, Grant & Taylor, Grantley & Lanis, Roman, 2015. "The impact of financial distress on corporate tax avoidance spanning the global financial crisis: Evidence from Australia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 44-53.
    9. Dimitras, A. I. & Slowinski, R. & Susmaga, R. & Zopounidis, C., 1999. "Business failure prediction using rough sets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 263-280, April.
    10. Bernard P.A. Santen & Auke de Bos, 2015. "The Effects of Legal Measures to Empower Supervisory Directors: Evidence from a Financial Distress Perspective," Journal of Management and Strategy, Journal of Management and Strategy, Sciedu Press, vol. 6(1), pages 45-61, February.
    11. Veres Ferrer, Ernesto Jesús & Labatut Serer, Gregorio & Pozuelo Campillo, Jose, 2009. "Hacia una ordenación de las pequeñas empresas atendiendo a su posible situación de fracaso/Towards a Ranking of Smaller Companies According to Their Failure Risk," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 27, pages 775(18á)-77, Diciembre.
    12. Jarmila Horváthová & Martina Mokrišová, 2018. "Risk of Bankruptcy, Its Determinants and Models," Risks, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 6(4), pages 1-22, October.
    13. Michele Bertoni & Bruno De Rosa & Laura Peressin, 2019. "Early Warning Systems: A Risk of Increasing Managerial Myopia?," Management, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper, vol. 14(4), pages 305-323.
    14. Alessandra Amendola & Marialuisa Restaino & Luca Sensini, 2013. "Corporate Financial Distress And Bankruptcy: A Comparative Analysis In France, Italy And Spain," Global Economic Observer, "Nicolae Titulescu" University of Bucharest, Faculty of Economic Sciences;Institute for World Economy of the Romanian Academy, vol. 1(2), pages 131-142, November.
    15. Trueck, Stefan & Rachev, Svetlozar T., 2008. "Rating Based Modeling of Credit Risk," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 1, number 9780123736833.
    16. John Y. Campbell & Jens Hilscher & Jan Szilagyi, 2008. "In Search of Distress Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(6), pages 2899-2939, December.
    17. Minhas Akbar & Ahsan Akbar & Petra Maresova & Minghui Yang & Hafiz Muhammad Arshad, 2020. "Unraveling the Bankruptcy Risk‒Return Paradox across the Corporate Life Cycle," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 12(9), pages 1-19, April.
    18. Elizabeth Demers & Philip Joos, 2007. "IPO Failure Risk," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(2), pages 333-371, May.
    19. Jacek Welc, 2016. "Empirical Safety Thresholds for Liquidity and Indebtedness Ratios on the Polish Capital Market," European Financial and Accounting Journal, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2016(3), pages 39-52.
    20. Koresh Galil & Neta Gilat, 2019. "Predicting Default More Accurately: To Proxy or Not to Proxy for Default?," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 19(4), pages 731-758, December.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • L25 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Performance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bas:econst:y:2016:i:3:p:118-136. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ikbasbg.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Diana Dimitrova (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ikbasbg.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.