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Modeling the determinants of exports and imports: assessment of the Macedonian competitive performances

Author

Listed:
  • Goce Petreski
  • Olivera Kostoska

    (Babes Bolyai University Cluj-Napoca)

Abstract

So far Macedonia has undergone an unsuccessful attempt to transition, distinguished by low growth rates, high unemployment, extensive poverty, balance of payments unfavorable position, technological lag etc. The external sector, as a core element to growth perspectives of a small open economy is critically dependant upon the export competitiveness. Consequently, this paper will address some critical points of the Macedonian economy, particularly the vulnerability of the external sector alongside with the price and trade liberalization. The set of analyses is to be carried out to explore the foreign trade structure, current account developments, as well as the major aspects of qualitative competitiveness. In addition, we have examined the impact of macroeconomic variables on exports and imports within the selected timeframe. We have therefore applied a comprehensive approach of dynamic modeling based upon a vector - autoregression model determined to control for endogeneity and set to estimate the long - run equilibrium relations, as well as the short-run dynamics of the key variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Goce Petreski & Olivera Kostoska, 2009. "Modeling the determinants of exports and imports: assessment of the Macedonian competitive performances," Management and Marketing Journal, University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 0(1), pages 36-58, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:aio:manmar:v:vii:y:2009:i:1:p:36-58
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    File URL: http://www.mnmk.ro/documents/2009/4_Petreski_Kostoska_FFF.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mr. Leslie Lipschitz & Mr. Donogh McDonald, 1991. "Real Exchange Rates and Competitiveness: A Clarification of Concepts, and Some Measurements for Europe," IMF Working Papers 1991/025, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Ark, Bart van & Stuivenwold, Edwin & Ypma, Gerard, 2005. "Unit labour costs, productivity and international competitiveness," GGDC Research Memorandum 200580, Groningen Growth and Development Centre, University of Groningen.
    3. Fagerberg, Jan, 1988. "International Competitiveness," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(391), pages 355-374, June.
    4. Edwards, Sebastian, 1992. "Trade orientation, distortions and growth in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 31-57, July.
    5. Haynes, Stephen E & Stone, Joe A, 1983. "Secular and Cyclical Responses of U.S. Trade to Income: An Evaluation of Traditional Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(1), pages 87-95, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mirdala, Rajmund & Semančíková, Jozefína & Ruščáková, Anna, 2019. "Determinants of Export and Import Functions in the EU Member Countries," MPRA Paper 99535, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Mabeta, Joshua, 2015. "Determinants of Non-Traditional Agricultural Exports Growth in Zambia: A Case of Cotton and Tobacco," Research Theses 243450, Collaborative Masters Program in Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    3. Soana Jaupllari (Teka) & Olta Zoto, 2013. "Understanding Industrial Innovation and Upgrade from Modularization’s Perspective," Journal of Knowledge Management, Economics and Information Technology, ScientificPapers.org, vol. 3(6), pages 1-10, December.
    4. Caner COLAK & Selman TOKPUNAR & Yasin UZUN, 2014. "Determinants of Sectoral Import in Manufacturing Industry: A Panel Data Analysis," Ege Academic Review, Ege University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 14(2), pages 271-281.
    5. Philip O. Alege & Evans S. Osabuohien, 2015. "Trade-Exchange Rate Nexus in Sub-Saharan African Countries," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 50(3), pages 151-167, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    exports; imports; competitiveness; vector - autoregression model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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