The Economics of Commodity Futures Markets: A Survey
This article reviews some of the literature pertaining to futures markets. After briefly considering how the evolution of the institution of futures trading has required changing interpretations, we devote a longer section to the interplay between theory and evidence concerning intertemporal price relationships. While disputed and inconclusive interpretations persist, Working's theory of the price of storage and his revision of hedging doctrine are clear landmarks of progress in understanding these price relationships. We deal separately with hedging theory; then with the relation between futures and price variability; and finally with the stochastic attributes of futures prices.
Volume (Year): 39 (1971)
Issue (Month): 04 (December)
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- Stewart, Blair, 1949. "An Analysis of Speculative Trading in Grain Futures," Technical Bulletins 156265, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
- Stevenson, Richard A & Bear, Robert M, 1970. "Commodity Futures: Trends or Random Walks?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(1), pages 65-81, March.
- Howell, L. D., 1948. "Analysis of Hedging and Other Operations in Grain Futures," Technical Bulletins 170308, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
- Brand, Simon S., 1964. "The Decline in the Cotton Futures Market," Food Research Institute Studies, Stanford University, Food Research Institute, issue 03.
- Howell, L. D. & Watson, Leonard J., 1938. "Relation of Spot Cotton Prices to Prices of Futures Contracts and Protection Afforded by Trading in Futures," Technical Bulletins 166018, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
- Gruen, Fred H.G., 1960. "The Pros and Cons of Futures Trading for Woolgrowers," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 28(03), September.
- Ronald I. McKinnon, 1967. "Futures Markets, Buffer Stocks, and Income Stability for Primary Producers," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75, pages 844.
- Tomek, William G., 1971. "A Note on Historical Wheat Prices and Futures Trading," Food Research Institute Studies, Stanford University, Food Research Institute, issue 01.
- Lester G. Telser, 1958. "Futures Trading and the Storage of Cotton and Wheat," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 233.
- Brinegar, Claude S., 1970. "A Statistical Analysis of Speculative Price Behavior," Food Research Institute Studies, Stanford University, Food Research Institute.
- Smidt, Seymour, 1965. "A Test of the Serial Independence Price Changes in Soybean Futures," Food Research Institute Studies, Stanford University, Food Research Institute, issue 02.
- Powers, Mark J, 1970. "Does Futures Trading Reduce Price Fluctuations in the Cash Markets?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(3), pages 460-64, June.
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