IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ags/eeaeje/249608.html

The Dynamic Links between Investment, Trade and Growth: Evidence from Ethiopia

Author

Listed:
  • Ambachew, Mekonnen Sisay

Abstract

The existing pool of evidence on the growth effects of investment and trade, as well as the reciprocal effects, is hardly sufficient, rendering their connections to remain inconclusive. The insufficiency of such studies is chronic when it comes to the Ethiopian economy. The investment, trade and growth connections in the Ethiopian economy have not been well researched, calling for such kinds of studies. Targeting at characterising the patterns of impact flows between investment, trade and growth in Ethiopia and contributing a little in filling some aspects of the lacuna, this study becomes a short-run causality analyses on their dynamic links using time series data over the period 1955-2003. According to the estimated VAR results, there is no feedback between any pair of the variables, out of the 3 hypothesised dynamic feedback links. Nonetheless, we have observed two uni-directional positive causalities that run from economic growth to enhanced trade openness and from the latter to investment. However, the evidence should not be interpreted as investment and trade do not contribute to growth. Rather, it could be signalling the low investment and trade performances of the country despite the unknown minimum thresholds of the rate of investment and trade openness for their respective impacts to be recognizable. Hence, measures that improve the performance of both activities, their linkages and the contribution of trade to investment could help the economy to build its productive capacity and then to grow faster.

Suggested Citation

  • Ambachew, Mekonnen Sisay, 2009. "The Dynamic Links between Investment, Trade and Growth: Evidence from Ethiopia," Ethiopian Journal of Economics, Ethiopian Economics Association, vol. 18(2), pages 132-132, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:eeaeje:249608
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.249608
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/249608/files/Ambachew%20Mekonnen_The%20Dynamic%20Links%20between%20Investment_%20Trade%20and%20Growth.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.249608?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Edwards, Sebastian, 1998. "Openness, Productivity and Growth: What Do We Really Know?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(447), pages 383-398, March.
    2. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Swaroop, Vinaya & Heng-fu, Zou, 1996. "The composition of public expenditure and economic growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 313-344, April.
    3. Yanikkaya, Halit, 2003. "Trade openness and economic growth: a cross-country empirical investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 57-89, October.
    4. Robert J. Barro, 2003. "Determinants of Economic Growth in a Panel of Countries," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 4(2), pages 231-274, November.
    5. Dollar, David & Easterly, William, 1999. "The Search for the Key: Aid, Investment and Policies in Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 8(4), pages 546-577, December.
    6. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Easterley, William R. & Pack, Howard, 2001. "Is investment in Africa too low or too high : macro and micro evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2519, The World Bank.
    7. Szirmai, Adam, 2008. "Explaining Success and Failure in Development," MERIT Working Papers 2008-013, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    8. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 407-443.
    9. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew Warner, 1995. "Economic Reform and the Process of Global Integration," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 1-118.
    10. Shantayanan Devarajan & William Easterly & Howard Pack, 2001. "Is Investment in Africa Too High or Too Low? Macro‐ and Micro‐evidence," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 10(suppl_2), pages 81-108.
    11. World Bank, 2006. "World Development Indicators 2006," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 8151, April.
    12. Bleaney, Michael & Greenaway, David, 2001. "The impact of terms of trade and real exchange rate volatility on investment and growth in sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 491-500, August.
    13. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(2), pages 407-437.
    14. Charles I. Plosser, 1992. "The search for growth," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 57-86.
    15. Reppas, Panayiotis A. & Christopoulos, Dimitris K., 2005. "The export-output growth nexus: Evidence from African and Asian countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 929-940, November.
    16. Gylfason, Thorvaldur, 1999. "Exports, Inflation and Growth," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 1031-1057, June.
    17. Grossman, Gene M. & Helpman, Elhanan, 1991. "Trade, knowledge spillovers, and growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(2-3), pages 517-526, April.
    18. Greenaway, David & Morgan, Wyn & Wright, Peter W, 1998. "Trade Reform, Adjustment and Growth: What Does the Evidence Tell Us?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(450), pages 1547-1561, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Eriṣ, Mehmet N. & Ulaṣan, Bülent, 2013. "Trade openness and economic growth: Bayesian model averaging estimate of cross-country growth regressions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 867-883.
    2. Charles Ackah, & Oliver Morrissey, 2007. "Trade Liberalisation is Good for You if You are Rich," Discussion Papers 07/01, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
    3. Ulaşan, Bülent, 2012. "Openness to international trade and economic growth: A cross-country empirical investigation," Economics Discussion Papers 2012-25, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    4. Aribah Aslam, 2020. "The hotly debate of human capital and economic growth: why institutions may matter?," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1351-1362, August.
    5. Ho Thuy Ai & Ping, Lin, 2018. "Impacts of fiscal policy on economic growth: Another look from institutional perspective," Economics Discussion Papers 2018-45, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    6. Samargandi, Nahla & Fidrmuc, Jan & Ghosh, Sugata, 2015. "Is the Relationship Between Financial Development and Economic Growth Monotonic? Evidence from a Sample of Middle-Income Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 66-81.
    7. Sumbal Fatima & Bateer Chen & Muhammad Ramzan & Qamar Abbas, 2020. "The Nexus Between Trade Openness and GDP Growth: Analyzing the Role of Human Capital Accumulation," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(4), pages 21582440209, November.
    8. Butkiewicz, James L. & Yanikkaya, Halit, 2005. "The Effects of IMF and World Bank Lending on Long-Run Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 371-391, March.
    9. Jeffrey A. Frankel, David Romer and Teresa Cyrus., 1995. "Trade and Growth in East Asian Countries: Cause and Effect?," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C95-050, University of California at Berkeley.
    10. Simplice A. Asongu & Voxi H. S. Amavilah & Antonio R. Andres, 2019. "Business Dynamics, Knowledge Economy, and the Economic Performance of African Countries," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 19/004, African Governance and Development Institute..
    11. Onafowora, Olugbenga A. & Owoye, Oluwole, 2024. "Trade openness, governance quality, and economic growth in Latin America and the Caribbean," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    12. Andreas Savvides & Theofanis P. Mamuneas & Thanasis Stengos, 2006. "Economic development and the return to human capital: a smooth coefficient semiparametric approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 111-132.
    13. Sebastián Fleitas & Andrés Rius & Carolina Román & Henry Willebald, 2013. "Contract enforcement, investment and growth in Uruguay since 1870," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 13-01, Instituto de Economía - IECON.
    14. Bretschger, Lucas, 2001. "Taking two steps to climb onto the stage: Capital taxes as link between trade and growth," Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Diskussionspapiere 05/2001, University of Greifswald, Faculty of Law and Economics.
    15. Morvillier, Florian, 2020. "Do currency undervaluations affect the impact of inflation on growth?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 275-292.
    16. Yobouet Thierry Bienvenu Gnangoin & Liangsheng Du & GuyRoland Assamoi & Akadje JeanRoland Edjoukou & Diby François Kassi, 2019. "Public Spending, Income Inequality and Economic Growth in Asian Countries: A Panel GMM Approach," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-15, November.
    17. Anton Gerunov, 2014. "Openness and Growth : An Empirical Investigation on a Panel of Countries over the Period 1999–2009," Yearbook of the Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Sofia University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Sofia University St Kliment Ohridski - Bulgaria, vol. 12(1), pages 107-125, March.
    18. Nathaniel P. S. Cook & Jason C. Jones, 2021. "The African Growth and Opportunity Act and growth in sub‐Saharan Africa: A local projection approach," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(1), pages 234-261, January.
    19. Florian Morvillier, 2018. "The role of exchange rate undervaluations on the inflation-growth nexus," Working Papers hal-04141804, HAL.
    20. Diaz-Bautista, Alejandro, 2002. "The role of telecommunications infrastructure and human capital: Mexico´s economic growth and convergence," ERSA conference papers ersa02p102, European Regional Science Association.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:eeaeje:249608. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eeaa2ea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.