Rebuilding strategies for food self-sufficiency: Portugal’s past patterns and future ambitions

This study analyses Portugal’s wheat productive capacity, exploring the reasons behind its recent steady decline despite achieving self-sufficiency in the 20th century. Using Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS), which proved to be highly effective in the development of forecasting models, the research provides valuable insights for countries facing similar challenges in defining production strategies. By employing this approach, decision-makers can improve resource allocation, ensure food security, and foster a resilient agricultural sector. The findings highlight the importance of understanding wheat production dynamics within the European Union and aligning national strategies with the Union’s goals and policies. The analysis indicates that achieving self-sufficiency is possible, supported by productivity improvements and increased cultivation areas. However, realizing significant production growth demands the adoption of sustainable strategies. This research contributes to shaping informed agricultural policies, enhancing decision-making processes, and promoting a more sustainable and efficient food production system to meet future challenges.