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Detecting origin fraud with trade data: the case of U.S. honey imports

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  • Ferrier, Peyton Michael

Abstract

Following the 2001 U.S. imposition of antidumping tariffs on imported honey from China and Argentina, industry press noted patterns of trade suggesting that honey was being transshipped to circumvent tariffs, origin fraud that was later uncovered in criminal cases. This article presents three approaches that use trade and production data to flag countries for possible instances of origin fraud and then compares these countries with those implicated in criminal cases and media reports. In our preferred empirical method, we also find that countries with higher corruption scores are more likely to show increases in suspicious trade patterns following the tariffs.

Suggested Citation

  • Ferrier, Peyton Michael, 2020. "Detecting origin fraud with trade data: the case of U.S. honey imports," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 65(01), January.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aareaj:342941
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.342941
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Ferrier, Peyton, 2008. "Illicit Agricultural Trade," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(2), pages 273-287, October.
    5. Darby, Michael R & Karni, Edi, 1973. "Free Competition and the Optimal Amount of Fraud," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 16(1), pages 67-88, April.
    6. Ferrier, Peyton Michael, 2008. "Illicit Agricultural Trade," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 37(2), pages 1-15.
    7. Ferrier, Peyton, 2019. "The Evolution of Federal Programs for Beekeepers and Pollinator Data," Choices: The Magazine of Food, Farm, and Resource Issues, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 34(4), November.
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