IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/agh/journl/v13y2013p65-82.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modeling of withdrawals from selected ATMs of the "Euronet" network

Author

Listed:
  • Henryk Gurgul

    (AGH University of Science and Technology in Cracow, Department of Applications of Mathematics in Economics)

  • Marcin Suder

    (AGH University of Science and Technology in Cracow, Department of Applications of Mathematics in Economics)

Abstract

This paper deals with the problem of withdrawals from Automated Teller Machines (ATMs), using daily data for selected ATMs installed by the Euronet network in the Polish provinces of Ma³opolska and Podkarpacie for the period from January 2008 to March 2012. The main aim of this paper is an estimation of the proper econometric models for withdrawals time series and attempt to forecast future demand on cash flow in ATMs in respect to their localization. This is necessary to establish a replenishment schedule. The results of computations suggest that models built on the basis of SARIMA methodology are useful tools for an modeling daily withdrawals time series. This kind of model can be applied independently of the localization of an ATM. The exercises for ex post data imply ex post forecast errors under 20%. This size of forecast errors is lower than the bias of actual replenishment scheduling.

Suggested Citation

  • Henryk Gurgul & Marcin Suder, 2013. "Modeling of withdrawals from selected ATMs of the "Euronet" network," Managerial Economics, AGH University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 13, pages 65-82.
    • Handle: RePEc:agh:journl:v:13:y:2013:p:65-82
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.managerial.zarz.agh.edu.pl/EM_on_line/Managerial%20Economics%2013%20%282013%29.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Galbraith & Greg Tkacz, 2007. "Electronic Transactions as High-Frequency Indicators of Economic Activity," Staff Working Papers 07-58, Bank of Canada.
    2. Wagner, Joachim, 1994. "The Post-entry Performance of New Small Firms in German Manufacturing Industries," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(2), pages 141-154, June.
    3. Mata, Jose & Portugal, Pedro & Guimaraes, Paulo, 1995. "The survival of new plants: Start-up conditions and post-entry evolution," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 459-481, December.
    4. Alcina Nunes & Elsa Sarmento, 2010. "Business Demography Dynamics in Portugal: A Semi-Parametric Survival Analysis," GEMF Working Papers 2010-10, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    5. Findley, David F, et al, 1998. "New Capabilities and Methods of the X-12-ARIMA Seasonal-Adjustment Program: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 169-177, April.
    6. Geoffrey R. Gerdes & May X. Liu & Darrel W. Parke & Jack K. Walton, 2005. "Trends in the use of payment instruments in the United States," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), vol. 91(Spr), pages 180-201.
    7. Jovanovic, Boyan & MacDonald, Glenn M, 1994. "The Life Cycle of a Competitive Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(2), pages 322-347, April.
    8. Acs,Zoltan J. & Audretsch,David B. (ed.), 1993. "Small Firms and Entrepreneurship," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521431156.
    9. Lon-Mu Liu, 1980. "Note---Analysis of Time Series with Calendar Effects," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 26(1), pages 106-112, January.
    10. Heli Snellman & Matti Viren, 2009. "ATM networks and cash usage," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(10), pages 841-851.
    11. Adam R. Brentnall & Martin J. Crowder & David J. Hand, 2008. "A statistical model for the temporal pattern of individual automated teller machine withdrawals," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 57(1), pages 43-59.
    12. Rajshree Agarwal & David B. Audretsch, 2001. "Does Entry Size Matter? The Impact of the Life Cycle and Technology on Firm Survival," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(1), pages 21-43, March.
    13. Paulo Rodrigues & Paulo Esteves, 2010. "Calendar effects in daily ATM withdrawals," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(4), pages 2587-2597.
    14. Alcina Nunes & Elsa Sarmento, 2010. "Business Demography Dynamics in Portugal: A Non-Parametric Survival Analysis," GEMF Working Papers 2010-09, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    15. Audretsch, David B & Mahmood, Talat, 1995. "New Firm Survival: New Results Using a Hazard Function," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(1), pages 97-103, February.
    16. C. Mirjam van Praag, 2003. "Business Survival and Success of Young Small Business Owners," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 03-050/3, Tinbergen Institute.
    17. Acs, Zoltan J. & Armington, Catherine, 2004. "The impact of geographic differences in human capital on service firm formation rates," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 244-278, September.
    18. Paolo Angelini & Andrea Generale, 2008. "On the Evolution of Firm Size Distributions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 426-438, March.
    19. Paloma López-García & Sergio Puente, 2006. "Business demography in Spain: determinants of firm survival," Working Papers 0608, Banco de España.
    20. Gene Amromin & Sujit Chakravorti, 2007. "Debit card and cash usage: a cross-country analysis," Working Paper Series WP-07-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    21. Thomas Astebro & Irwin Bernhardt, 1999. "The Winner's Curse of Human Capital," Working Papers 99-5, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    22. Findley, David F, et al, 1998. "New Capabilities and Methods of the X-12-ARIMA Seasonal-Adjustment Program," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 127-152, April.
    23. Pei-Chou Lin & Deng-Shing Huang, 2008. "Technological Regimes and Firm Survival: Evidence Across Sectors and Over Time," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 175-186, February.
    24. Paulo Esteves, 2009. "Are ATM/POS Data Relevant When Nowcasting Private Consumption?," Working Papers w200925, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    25. Geroski, P. A., 1995. "What do we know about entry?," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 421-440, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Henryk Gurgul & Roland Mestel & Robert Syrek, 2013. "The testing of causal stock returns-trading volume dependencies with the aid of copulas," Managerial Economics, AGH University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 13, pages 21-44.
    2. K. Liczmanska & A.M. Wisniewska, 2013. "A strong brand as a determinant of purchase the case of sectors, where advertising in mass media is banned – on the example of the Polish spirits sector," Managerial Economics, AGH University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 13, pages 83-98.
    3. Zając, Paweł, 2013. "The New Approach to Estimation of the Hazard Function in Business Demography on Example of Data from New Zealand," MPRA Paper 68600, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2013.
    4. Henryk Gurgul & Machno Artur & Roland Mestel, 2013. "Modeling of returns and trading volume by regime switching copulas," Managerial Economics, AGH University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 13, pages 45-64.
    5. Pawel Zajac, 2013. "The New Approach to estimation of the Hazard Function in Business Demography on example of Data from New Zealand," Managerial Economics, AGH University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 13, pages 99-110.
    6. Joanna Duda, 2013. "The Role of Bank Credits in Investment Financing of the Small and Medium-sized Enterprise Sector in Poland," Managerial Economics, AGH University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 13, pages 7-20.
    7. Henryk Gurgul & Marcin Suder, 2013. "The Properties of ATMs Development Stages - an Empirical Analysis," Statistics in Transition new series, Główny Urząd Statystyczny (Polska), vol. 14(3), pages 443-466, September.
    8. Henryk Gurgul & Marcin Suder, 2016. "Calendar And Seasonal Effects On The Size Of Withdrawals From Atms Managed By Euronet," Statistics in Transition New Series, Polish Statistical Association, vol. 17(4), pages 691-722, December.
    9. Colombo, Massimo G. & Delmastro, Marco & Grilli, Luca, 2004. "Entrepreneurs' human capital and the start-up size of new technology-based firms," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1183-1211, November.
    10. Masatoshi Kato & Yuji Honjo, 2015. "Entrepreneurial human capital and the survival of new firms in high- and low-tech sectors," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 25(5), pages 925-957, November.
    11. Marcelo Resende & Vicente Cardoso & Luis Otávio Façanha, 2016. "Determinants of survival of newly created SMEs in the Brazilian manufacturing industry: an econometric study," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(4), pages 1255-1274, June.
    12. Elena Cefis & Orietta Marsili, 2005. "A matter of life and death: innovation and firm survival," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(6), pages 1167-1192, December.
    13. Colombelli, Alessandra & Krafft, Jackie & Vivarelli, Marco, 2016. "To Be Born Is Not Enough: The Key Role of Innovative Startups," IZA Discussion Papers 9733, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    14. Raquel Ortega-Argilés & Rosina Moreno, 2005. "Firm Competitive Strategies And The Likelihood Of Survival - The Spanish Case," ERSA conference papers ersa05p347, European Regional Science Association.
    15. Dimara, Efthalia & Skuras, Dimitris & Tsekouras, Kostas & Tzelepis, Dimitris, 2008. "Productive efficiency and firm exit in the food sector," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 185-196, April.
    16. Ugur, Mehmet & Trushin, Eshref & Solomon, Edna, 2016. "Inverted-U relationship between R&D intensity and survival: Evidence on scale and complementarity effects in UK data," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1474-1492.
    17. Mohammad Ali Jamali & Nor Ghani Md Nor, 2012. "Growth of Firms in Manufacturing Sector," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 13(1), pages 51-68, February.
    18. Alessandra Colombelli & Jackie Krafft & Marco Vivarelli, 2016. "To be born is not enough: the key role of innovative start-ups," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 277-291, August.
    19. Cefis, Elena & Marsili, Orietta, 2006. "Survivor: The role of innovation in firms' survival," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 626-641, June.
    20. Colombelli, Alessandra & Krafft, Jackie & Vivarelli, Marco, 2016. "New Firms and Post-Entry Performance: The Role of Innovation," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis LEI & BRICK - Laboratory of Economics of Innovation "Franco Momigliano", Bureau of Research in Innovation, Complexity and Knowledge, Collegio 201601, University of Turin.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ATMs withdrawals; replenishment scheduling; SARIMA modeling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G0 - Financial Economics - - General
    • G00 - Financial Economics - - General - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:agh:journl:v:13:y:2013:p:65-82. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Lukasz Lach (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/wzaghpl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.