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Business Demography Dynamics in Portugal: a Semi-parametric Survival Analysis

  • Alcina Nunes

    ()

    (Escola Superior de Tecnologia e de Gestão do Instituto Politécnico de Bragança)

  • Elsa Sarmento

    ()

    (Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia e da Inovação)

We address the post-entry performance of new Portuguese firms by investigating the structural characteristics of the hazard and survival functions, using semi-parametric survival analysis for the total economy and its broad sectors. In order to approach the prevalence of some stylized facts and determinants of new firm survival, a new entrepreneurship database was produced, using the administrative data of Quadros de Pessoal, following the Eurostat/OECD´s internationally comparable business demography methodology. In line with the literature, we find that firms that start small and experience faster post-entry growth, face a higher probability of survival. Firm’s current size dimension matters particularly for the Services sector probability of survival. In industries characterized by high entry rates, post-entry survival is more difficult. This happens mostly in Agriculture and the Construction sectors in Portugal. We find a different result from the literature, for the effect of industry growth in survival rates. Firms operating in industries which are growing faster, seem to suffer from a higher probability of failure. The combined effect of turbulence and entry and growth variables help explaining this unexpected effect of industry growth on survival probabilities. By correcting heterogeneity, we obtain stronger magnitudes of the hazard ratios found previously

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File URL: http://www.gee.min-economia.pt/RePEc/WorkingPapers/gee_papers_23.pdf
File Function: First version, 2010
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Paper provided by Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia e da Inovação in its series GEE Papers with number 0023.

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Length: 19 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2010
Date of revision: Sep 2010
Handle: RePEc:mde:wpaper:0023
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  1. Gort, Michael & Klepper, Steven, 1982. "Time Paths in the Diffusion of Product Innovations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(367), pages 630-53, September.
  2. P.A. Geroski & José Mata & Pedro Portugal, 2007. "Founding Conditions and the Survival of New Firms," DRUID Working Papers 07-11, DRUID, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Industrial Economics and Strategy/Aalborg University, Department of Business Studies.
  3. Brito, Paulo & Mello, Antonio S., 1995. "Financial constraints and firm post-entry performance," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 543-565, December.
  4. Mata, Jose & Machado, Jose A. F., 1996. "Firm start-up size: A conditional quantile approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1305-1323, June.
  5. Zoltan Acs & Sameeksha Desai & Leora Klapper, 2008. "What does “entrepreneurship” data really show?," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 31(3), pages 265-281, October.
  6. Cabral, Luís M B & Mata, José, 2001. "On the Evolution of the Firm Size Distribution: Facts and Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 3045, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Jovanovic, Boyan, 1982. "Selection and the Evolution of Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 649-70, May.
  8. Eric Bartelsman & John Haltiwanger & Stefano Scarpetta, 2009. "Measuring and Analyzing Cross-country Differences in Firm Dynamics," NBER Chapters, in: Producer Dynamics: New Evidence from Micro Data, pages 15-76 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Eric Bartelsman & Stefano Scarpetta & Fabiano Schivardi, 2005. "Comparative analysis of firm demographics and survival: evidence from micro-level sources in OECD countries," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(3), pages 365-391, June.
  10. Mata, Jose, 1993. "Entry and type of entrant : Evidence from Portugal," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 101-122, March.
  11. Luís Cabral, 2007. "Small firms in Portugal: a selective survey of stylized facts, economic analysis, and policy implications," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 65-88, April.
  12. Paloma López-García & Sergio Puente, 2006. "Business demography in Spain: determinants of firm survival," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0608, Banco de Espa�a.
  13. Mata, Jose & Portugal, Pedro, 1994. "Life Duration of New Firms," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(3), pages 227-45, September.
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