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Option Price Estimations and Speculative Trading In Knowledge Society

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  • Ovidiu TURCOANE

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Abstract

Derivatives market has known an enormous and continuous development from the late 1970s, thanks to the most celebrated Black-Scholes-Merton formula. The impact on global economy is also tremendous, but due to the high leverage of speculative option trading there is a perpetual danger of economic collapse. This paper gives a short description of knowledge society and proposes methods for option price estimation based on implied volatility, skewness and kurtosis. ‘Free-lunch’ is hardly achievable if one predicts the option price using the knowledgeable information from the market and there is almost impossible to speculate, rather than to hedge, when trading option.

Suggested Citation

  • Ovidiu TURCOANE, 2012. "Option Price Estimations and Speculative Trading In Knowledge Society," Informatica Economica, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 16(4), pages 131-141.
  • Handle: RePEc:aes:infoec:v:16:y:2012:i:4:p:131-141
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jurczenko, Emmanuel & Maillet, Bertrand & Negrea, Bogdan, 2002. "Skewness and kurtosis implied by option prices: a second comment," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24938, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Charles J. Corrado & Tie Su, 1996. "S&P 500 index option tests of Jarrow and Rudd's approximate option valuation formula," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(6), pages 611-629, September.
    3. Choy, Siu Kai & Wei, Jason, 2012. "Option trading: Information or differences of opinion?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 2299-2322.
    4. Robert C. Merton, 2005. "Theory of rational option pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Theory Of Valuation, chapter 8, pages 229-288 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Hayunga, Darren K. & Holowczak, Richard D. & Lung, Peter P. & Nishikawa, Takeshi, 2012. "Derivatives traders’ reaction to mispricing in the underlying equity," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 2438-2454.
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