Agri-Food Export Strategies in Free Trade Agreements - the Case Study of Serbia in the Serbia-China FTA

The objective of the research is the evaluation of the competitiveness of Serbia’s exports in the agro-food trade with China, with the aim of deciding on the appropriate export strategy within the 2024 Serbia-China Free Trade Agreement (FTA). Export competitiveness diagnostics comprises 2018-2022 trade performance indicators (trade flows, export diversification and technological classification and indices of trade specialisation, intra-industry trade and revealed comparative advantage), review of China's tariff concessions and analysis of supply trends in the agri-food sector. Revealed comparative advantage indices coupled with tariff concessions indicate a number of agri-food products with comparative advantage and good prospects in the Chinese market. However, other trade performance indicators point to serious weaknesses in Serbian agri-food exports to China, including high product concentration, overall net export competitive disadvantage, prevalence of primary products, and low intra-industry trade, resulted from significant supply constraints. These findings, coupled with the growing demand for healthier and more nutritious foods in China, point to an export strategy based on export diversification and product differentiation, rather than export volume. Research complements the literature on agri-food competitiveness and may be of interest to a number of agri-food economies in the era of proliferation of FTAs.