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The Low-Hanging Fruit of the Single European Market: New Methods and Measures

Author

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  • Lionel Fontagné

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

  • Yoto V Yotov

    (Drexel University)

Abstract

We propose and construct novel measures of the effectiveness and potential of trade blocs, combining estimation with granular data and simulation with a New Quantitative Trade Model. We deploy our methods and new indexes to quantify the potential benefits from (i) further integration within the largest and most successful trade liberalization effort in the world -the Single European Market -and (ii) a possible enlargement. Three main results and implications stand out from our analysis. First, European integration has been very effective in promoting trade among its members, with heterogeneous effects across industries and member states. Second, and most novel and important, our estimates reveal that only half of the potential benefits from EU membership have been realized to date. Third, EU accession will generate very large gains from trade for the new joiners and moderate gains for existing members, with larger benefits for some small and peripheral EU members. Importantly, our methods enable us to construct confidence bounds for the effects of EU enlargement.

Suggested Citation

  • Lionel Fontagné & Yoto V Yotov, 2025. "The Low-Hanging Fruit of the Single European Market: New Methods and Measures," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-05048951, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:hal-05048951
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://pse.hal.science/hal-05048951v1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Peter H. Egger & Mario Larch & Yoto V. Yotov, 2022. "Gravity Estimations with Interval Data: Revisiting the Impact of Free Trade Agreements," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 89(353), pages 44-61, January.
    2. Anderson, James E. & Yotov, Yoto V., 2016. "Terms of trade and global efficiency effects of free trade agreements, 1990–2002," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 279-298.
    3. Agnosteva, Delina E. & Anderson, James E. & Yotov, Yoto V., 2019. "Intra-national trade costs: Assaying regional frictions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 32-50.
    4. Fontagné, Lionel & Yotov, Yoto V., 2024. "Reassessing the Impact of the Single Market and Its Ability to Help Build Strategic Autonomy," Single Market Economics Papers WP2024/25, Directorate-General for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs (European Commission), Chief Economist Team.
    5. Egger, Peter H. & Tarlea, Filip, 2015. "Multi-way clustering estimation of standard errors in gravity models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 144-147.
    6. Fontagné, Lionel & Freudenberg, Michael & Péridy, Nicolas, 1998. "Intra-Industry Trade and the Single Market: Quality Matters," CEPR Discussion Papers 1959, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Richard Baldwin & Daria Taglioni, 2006. "Gravity for Dummies and Dummies for Gravity Equations," NBER Working Papers 12516, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    9. Thierry Mayer & Gianluca Santoni & Vincent Vicard, 2023. "The CEPII Trade and Production Database," Working Papers 2023-01, CEPII research center.
    10. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H. & Larch, Mario & Yotov, Yoto V., 2015. "Economic integration agreements, border effects, and distance elasticities in the gravity equation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 307-327.
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    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions

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