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Oil Price Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations


  • Carlos de Miguel
  • Baltasar Manzano
  • Jose M. Martin-Moreno


This paper analyzes the effects of oil price shocks on the characteristics of the business cycle and on welfare in a small open economy, such as in the case of the Spanish economy. The results show the ability of the model to reproduce the business cycle path of the Spanish economy, especially in those periods when shocks in the price of oil were most dramatic. Furthermore, the model reproduces other regularities of the Spanish business cycle. Finally, it is shown that the increases in the relative price oil had a negative and significant effect on welfare.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos de Miguel & Baltasar Manzano & Jose M. Martin-Moreno, 2003. "Oil Price Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 47-61.
  • Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:2003v24-02-a02

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Naohisa Hirakata & Nao Sudo, 2009. "Accounting for Oil Price Variation and Weakening Impact of the Oil Crisis," IMES Discussion Paper Series 09-E-01, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    2. Evangelia Papapetrou, 2013. "Oil prices and economic activity in Greece," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 46(4), pages 385-397, November.
    3. Carlos de Miguel & Baltasar Manzano, 2006. "Optimal Oil Taxation in a Small Open Economy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 9(3), pages 438-454, July.
    4. Oral, Isil & Santos, Indhira & Zhang, Fan, 2012. "Climate change policies and employment in Eastern Europe and Central Asia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6294, The World Bank.
    5. repec:bla:afrdev:v:29:y:2017:i:2:p:319-336 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Baltasar Manzano & Carlos de Miguel & JosÈ Mô MartÌn Moreno, "undated". "Oil Shocks and the Business Cycle in Europe," Studies on the Spanish Economy 215, FEDEA.
    7. Mehmet Balcilar & Reneé van Eyden & Josine Uwilingiye & Rangan Gupta, 2017. "The Impact of Oil Price on South African GDP Growth: A Bayesian Markov Switching-VAR Analysis," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 29(2), pages 319-336, June.
    8. Torsten Schmidt & Tobias Zimmermann, 2005. "Effects of Oil Price Shocks on German Business Cycles," RWI Discussion Papers 0036, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung.
    9. Martín-Moreno, José M. & Pérez, Rafaela & Ruiz, Jesús, 2014. "A real business cycle model with tradable and non-tradable goods for the Spanish economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 204-212.
    10. repec:zbw:rwidps:0031 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Tweneboah, George & Adam, Anokye M., 2008. "Implications of Oil Price Shocks for Monetary Policy in Ghana: A Vector Error Correction Model," MPRA Paper 11968, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Virjinia Jeliazkova, 2010. "Effects of the Dynamics of the Oil Price – Theoretical and Empirical Bases," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 2, pages 127-165.
    13. repec:eee:enepol:v:106:y:2017:i:c:p:536-546 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-421 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. repec:aen:journl:ej38-6-martinmoreno is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Tobias Zimmermann & Torsten Schmidt, 2005. "Effects of oil price shocks on German business cycles," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 212, Society for Computational Economics.
    17. Sanidas, Elias, 2014. "Four harmonic cycles explain and predict commodity currencies' wide long term fluctuations," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 135-151.
    18. JosÈ Mô MartÌn Moreno & Jes˙s Ruiz, "undated". "Bienes comerciables y no comerciables en la economÌa espanola: Un enfoque de ciclo real," Studies on the Spanish Economy 206, FEDEA.
    19. repec:eco:journ2:2017-06-17 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Tarek Atallah & Jorge Blazquez, 2015. "Quantifying the impact of coal on global economic growth and energy productivity in the early 21st century," ECONOMICS AND POLICY OF ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2015(2), pages 93-106.

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    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General


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