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Estimating US Consumer Gains from Chinese Imports

Author

Listed:
  • Liang Bai
  • Sebastian Stumpner

Abstract

We estimate the size of US consumer gains from Chinese imports during 2004–2015. Using barcode-level price and expenditure data, we construct inflation rates under CES preferences, and use Chinese exports to Europe as an instrument. We find significant negative effects of Chinese imports on US prices. This effect is driven by both changes in the prices of existing goods and the entry of new goods, and it is similar across consumer groups by income or region. A simple benchmarking exercise suggests that Chinese imports led to a 0.19 percentage point annual reduction in the price index for consumer tradables.

Suggested Citation

  • Liang Bai & Sebastian Stumpner, 2019. "Estimating US Consumer Gains from Chinese Imports," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 1(2), pages 209-224, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aerins:v:1:y:2019:i:2:p:209-24
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/aeri.20180358
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    Cited by:

    1. Guilherme Schneider Rasador & Luciane Franke & Fernanda Cristina Wiebusch Sindelar, 2024. "US–China Trade War: an empirical evaluation regarding its impacts on Brazilian exports," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 883-906, October.
    2. David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon Hanson & Maggie R. Jones & Bradley Setzler, 2024. "Places versus People: The Ins and Outs of Labor Market Adjustment to Globalization," Working Papers 24-78, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    3. Dorn, David & Levell, Peter, 2024. "Labour market impacts of the China shock: Why the tide of Globalisation did not lift all boats," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    4. Carroll, Daniel R. & Hur, Sewon, 2020. "On the heterogeneous welfare gains and losses from trade," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 1-16.
    5. Jerbashian, Vahagn, 2021. "Trade in information technologies and changes in the demand for occupations," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    6. Baptiste Souillard, 2020. "Import Competition And Corporate Tax Avoidance: Evidence From The China Shock," Working Papers ECARES 2020-30, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    7. Lodge, David & Pérez, Javier J. & Albrizio, Silvia & Everett, Mary & De Bandt, Olivier & Georgiadis, Georgios & Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Lastauskas, Povilas & Carluccio, Juan & Parraga Rodriguez, Susana &, 2021. "The implications of globalisation for the ECB monetary policy strategy," Occasional Paper Series 263, European Central Bank.
    8. Olivier De Bandt & Juan Carluccio, 2022. "How globalisation affects inflation [La mondialisation et ses répercussions sur l’inflation]," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 240.
    9. Sébastien Houde & Wenjun Wang, 2022. "The Incidence of the U.S.-China Solar Trade War," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 22/372, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    10. Raphael Auer & Ariel Burstein & Sarah Lein & Jonathan Vogel, 2024. "Unequal Expenditure Switching: Evidence from Switzerland," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(5), pages 2572-2603.
    11. Carluccio, Juan & Gautier, Erwan & Guilloux-Nefussi, Sophie, 2023. "Dissecting the impact of imports from low-wage countries on inflation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    12. Dmitri Kirpichev & Enrique Moral-Benito, 2018. "The costs of trade protectionism: evidence from Spanish firms and non-tariff measures," Working Papers 1814, Banco de España.
    13. Akira Sasahara, 2022. "The Empirics of the China Trade Shock: A Summary of Estimation Methods and A Literature Review," Keio-IES Discussion Paper Series 2022-008, Institute for Economics Studies, Keio University.
    14. Ascari, Guido & Fosso, Luca, 2024. "The international dimension of trend inflation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    15. Yumin Hu & Luca Macedoni & Mingzhi (Jimmy) Xu, 2025. "Inequality and Market Power: Evidence from the United States and China," CESifo Working Paper Series 12181, CESifo.
    16. Kirill Borusyak & Xavier Jaravel, 2018. "The Distributional Effects of Trade: Theory and Evidence from the United States," 2018 Meeting Papers 284, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    17. Ha, Jongrim & Kose, M. Ayhan & Ohnsorge, Franziska & Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2023. "Understanding the global drivers of inflation: How important are oil prices?11We would like to thank Xuguang Simon Sheng, Guest Editor, and two anonymous reviewers for their detailed feedback. We also thank Zidong An, Carlos Arteta, Menzie Chinn, Kev," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PA).
    18. Hong Ma & Lingsheng Meng, 2023. "Heterogeneous impacts of the Section 301 tariffs: Evidence from the revision of product lists," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 56(1), pages 164-190, February.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • P33 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - International Trade, Finance, Investment, Relations, and Aid

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