IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/acc/malfin/v31y2016i106p29-48.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Effects of Changes in Oil Prices on Turkey’s Current Account Deficit

Author

Listed:
  • Selim Güngör

    (Gaziosmanpaşa University)

  • Lütfiye Sönmez

    (Gaziosmanpaşa University)

  • Özge Korkmaz

    (Bayburt University)

  • Süleyman Serdar Karaca

    (Gaziosmanpaşa University)

Abstract

The aim of this study is to examine the effect of changes inoil prices on turkey’s current account deficit the period of databelongs to 1992:1 to 2015:12. In this context, monthly brent oilprices and turkey’s monthly current account deficit data havebeen analysed with arch-garch models. According to the resultsobtained from this model has been shown to have an effecton the current account deficit will reduce oil prices and deficit onthe current account of the structural break has been determinedthat there is no significant effect.keywords: oil prices, current

Suggested Citation

  • Selim Güngör & Lütfiye Sönmez & Özge Korkmaz & Süleyman Serdar Karaca, 2016. "The Effects of Changes in Oil Prices on Turkey’s Current Account Deficit," Journal of Finance Letters (Maliye ve Finans Yazıları), Maliye ve Finans Yazıları Yayıncılık Ltd. Şti., vol. 31(106), pages 29-48, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:acc:malfin:v:31:y:2016:i:106:p:29-48
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.33203/mfy.312266
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/302233
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/https://doi.org/10.33203/mfy.312266?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gebhard Kirchgässner & Jürgen Wolters & Uwe Hassler, 2013. "Introduction to Modern Time Series Analysis," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, edition 2, number 978-3-642-33436-8, December.
    2. Huntington, Hillard G., 2015. "Crude oil trade and current account deficits," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 70-79.
    3. Chuku A. Chuku & Usenobong F. Akpan & Ndifreke R. Sam & Ekpeno L. Effiong, 2011. "Oil price shocks and the dynamics of current account balances in Nigeria," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 35(2), pages 119-139, June.
    4. Özlale, Ümit & Pekkurnaz, Didem, 2010. "Oil prices and current account: A structural analysis for the Turkish economy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4489-4496, August.
    5. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
    6. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    7. Sana Zaouali, 2007. "Impact of higher oil prices on the Chinese economy," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 31(3), pages 191-214, September.
    8. Melike Bildirici & Fazil Kayıkçı, 2012. "Global Imbalances in Current Account Balances," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 2(6), pages 1-7.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Balli, Esra & Nazif Çatık, Abdurrahman & Nugent, Jeffrey B., 2021. "Time-varying impact of oil shocks on trade balances: Evidence using the TVP-VAR model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    2. Yuksel BAYRAKTAR, & Taha EGRI, & Furkan YILDIZ, 2016. "A Causal Relationship Between Oil Prices Current Account Deficit, And Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis From Fragile Five Countries," EcoForum, "Stefan cel Mare" University of Suceava, Romania, Faculty of Economics and Public Administration - Economy, Business Administration and Tourism Department., vol. 5(Special I), pages 1-3, august.
    3. Jan Jakub Szczygielski & Chimwemwe Chipeta, 2023. "Properties of returns and variance and the implications for time series modelling: Evidence from South Africa," Modern Finance, Modern Finance Institute, vol. 1(1), pages 35-55.
    4. Umar, Muhammad & Mirza, Nawazish & Rizvi, Syed Kumail Abbas & Furqan, Mehreen, 2023. "Asymmetric volatility structure of equity returns: Evidence from an emerging market," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 330-336.
    5. Shively, Gerald E., 2001. "Price thresholds, price volatility, and the private costs of investment in a developing country grain market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 399-414, August.
    6. Chang, Chia-Lin, 2015. "Modelling a latent daily Tourism Financial Conditions Index," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 113-126.
    7. Alagidede, Paul & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2009. "Modelling stock returns in Africa's emerging equity markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(1-2), pages 1-11, March.
    8. Chang, Chia-Lin & Hsu, Hui-Kuang, 2013. "Modelling Volatility Size Effects for Firm Performance: The Impact of Chinese Tourists to Taiwan," MPRA Paper 45691, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Athanasia Gavala & Nikolay Gospodinov & Deming Jiang, 2006. "Forecasting volatility," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(6), pages 381-400.
    10. repec:wyi:journl:002087 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Asai, Manabu & McAleer, Michael, 2015. "Leverage and feedback effects on multifactor Wishart stochastic volatility for option pricing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 187(2), pages 436-446.
    12. Mai, Nhat Chi, 2022. "Tác động của lạm phát đến hoạt động của thị trường chứng khoán ở Việt Nam: Kiểm chứng bằng mô hình GARCH," OSF Preprints azcqd, Center for Open Science.
    13. Alex Huang, 2013. "Value at risk estimation by quantile regression and kernel estimator," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 225-251, August.
    14. Chia-Lin Chang & Shu-Han Hsu & Michael McAleer, 2018. "An Event Study Analysis of Political Events, Disasters, and Accidents for Chinese Tourists to Taiwan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-77, November.
    15. Ataurima Arellano, Miguel & Rodríguez, Gabriel, 2020. "Empirical modeling of high-income and emerging stock and Forex market return volatility using Markov-switching GARCH models," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    16. Dongweí Su, 2003. "Risk, Return and Regulation in Chinese Stock Markets," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Chinese Stock Markets A Research Handbook, chapter 3, pages 75-122, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    17. Chia-Lin Chang & Tai-Lin Hsieh & Michael McAleer, 2016. "Connecting VIX and Stock Index ETF," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 16-010/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 23 Jan 2017.
    18. Chia-Lin Chang & Yiying Li & Michael McAleer, 2018. "Volatility Spillovers between Energy and Agricultural Markets: A Critical Appraisal of Theory and Practice," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-19, June.
    19. Stentoft, Lars, 2005. "Pricing American options when the underlying asset follows GARCH processes," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 576-611, September.
    20. Jun Lu & Shao Yi, 2022. "Reducing Overestimating and Underestimating Volatility via the Augmented Blending-ARCH Model," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 9(2), pages 48-59, May.
    21. Nico Knuth & Andreas Nastansky, 2025. "Anwendung von Deep Learning in der Prognose der Volatilität des DAX: Ein Vergleich der Prognosegüte von GARCH und LSTM," Statistische Diskussionsbeiträge 59, Universität Potsdam, Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliche Fakultät.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:acc:malfin:v:31:y:2016:i:106:p:29-48. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Süleyman Kale (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/mfy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.