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Testing Market Efficiency: Evidence from the NFL Sports Betting Market

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As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
  1. > Industrial Organization > Industry studies > Sports, recreation and tourism > Gambling

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Cited by:

  1. Bryan C. McCannon, 2015. "Replacement Referees And Nfl Betting Markets," Journal of Gambling Business and Economics, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 9(2), pages 14-26.
  2. Dagaev, Dmitry & Stoyan, Egor, 2020. "Parimutuel betting on the eSports duels: Evidence of the reverse favourite-longshot bias," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
  3. Michael Sinkey & Trevon Logan, 2014. "Does the Hot Hand Drive the Market? Evidence from College Football Betting Markets," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 40(4), pages 583-603, September.
  4. Paul, Rodney J. & Weinbach, Andrew P., 2012. "Competitive balance in the NFL?," Edition HWWI: Chapters, in: Büch, Martin-Peter & Maennig, Wolfgang & Schulke, Hans-Jürgen (ed.), Zur Ökonomik von Spitzenleistungen im internationalen Sport, volume 3, pages 73-84, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
  5. Igan, Deniz & Pinheiro, Marcelo & Smith, John, 2011. ""White men can't jump," but would you bet on it?," MPRA Paper 31469, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Kevin Krieger & Clay Girdner & Andy Fodor & David Kirch, 2013. "The Power Of Wagering On Power Conferences," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 7(1), pages 13-26.
  7. Choi, Darwin & Hui, Sam K., 2014. "The role of surprise: Understanding overreaction and underreaction to unanticipated events using in-play soccer betting market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 107(PB), pages 614-629.
  8. Robert Arscott, 2023. "Market Efficiency and Censoring Bias in College Football Gambling," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 24(5), pages 664-689, June.
  9. Karen Croxson & J. James Reade, 2014. "Information and Efficiency: Goal Arrival in Soccer Betting," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 124(575), pages 62-91, March.
  10. David Johnstone, 2007. "Economic Darwinism: Who has the Best Probabilities?," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 62(1), pages 47-96, February.
  11. Kenneth H. Brown & Fred J. Abraham, 2002. "Testing Market Efficiency in the Major League Baseball Over-Under Betting Market," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 3(4), pages 311-319, November.
  12. Corey A. Shank, 2018. "Is the NFL betting market still inefficient?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 42(4), pages 818-827, October.
  13. Carsten Schmidt & Axel Werwatz, 2002. "How accurate do markets predict the outcome of an event? The Euro 2000 soccer championships experiment," Papers on Strategic Interaction 2002-09, Max Planck Institute of Economics, Strategic Interaction Group.
  14. William Dare & A. Steven Holland, 2004. "Efficiency in the NFL betting market: modifying and consolidating research methods," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1), pages 9-15.
  15. Stekler, H.O. & Sendor, David & Verlander, Richard, 2010. "Issues in sports forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 606-621, July.
    • Herman O. Stekler & David Sendor & Richard Verlander, 2009. "Issues in Sports Forecasting," Working Papers 2009-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
  16. Alexander Traugutt & Jarid Morton, 2022. "Is herding efficient? Evidence from the college football point spread market," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 42(3), pages 1673-1680.
  17. Ladd Kochman & Randy Goodwin & David Bray, 2015. "So Easy a Caveman Can Beat the Football Betting Market," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 60(2), pages 225-228, September.
  18. Lars Lefgren & Brennan Platt & Joseph Price, 2015. "Sticking with What (Barely) Worked: A Test of Outcome Bias," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(5), pages 1121-1136, May.
  19. Sathya Ramesh & Ragib Mostofa & Marco Bornstein & John Dobelman, 2019. "Beating the House: Identifying Inefficiencies in Sports Betting Markets," Papers 1910.08858, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2019.
  20. Andrikogiannopoulou, Angie & Papakonstantinou, Filippos, 2017. "Individual reaction to past performance sequences: evidence from a real marketplace," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 87997, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  21. Steven G. Sapra, 2008. "Evidence of Betting Market Intraseason Efficiency and Interseason Overreaction to Unexpected NFL Team Performance 1988-2006," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 9(5), pages 488-503, October.
  22. Ray Fair & John Oster, 2002. "College Football Rankings and Market Efficiency," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2377, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Aug 2007.
  23. Justin Cox & Adam L. Schwartz & Bonnie F. Van Ness & Robert A. Van Ness, 2021. "The Predictive Power of College Football Spreads: Regular Season Versus Bowl Games," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 22(3), pages 251-273, April.
  24. David Paton & Leighton Vaughan Williams, 2005. "Forecasting outcomes in spread betting markets: can bettors use 'quarbs' to beat the book?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(2), pages 139-154.
  25. Linda M. Woodland & Bill M. Woodland, 2015. "The National Football League season wins total betting market: The impact of heuristics on behavior," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 82(1), pages 38-54, July.
  26. Philip W. S. Newall & Dominic Cortis, 2021. "Are Sports Bettors Biased toward Longshots, Favorites, or Both? A Literature Review," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-9, January.
  27. Rodney J. Paul & Andrew P. Weinbach, 2009. "Sportsbook Behavior in the NCAA Football Betting Market: Tests of the Traditional and Levitt Models of Sportsbook Behavior," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 3(2), pages 21-37, August.
  28. Norton, Hugh & Gray, Steve & Faff, Robert, 2015. "Yes, one-day international cricket ‘in-play’ trading strategies can be profitable!," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(S2), pages 164-176.
  29. Wunderlich, Fabian & Memmert, Daniel, 2020. "Are betting returns a useful measure of accuracy in (sports) forecasting?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 713-722.
  30. Whelan, Karl & Hegarty, Tadgh, 2023. "Forecasting Soccer Matches With Betting Odds: A Tale of Two Markets," MPRA Paper 116925, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  31. Linda M. Woodland & Bill M. Woodland, 2003. "The Reverse Favourite–longshot Bias and Market Efficiency in Major League Baseball: An Update," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(2), pages 113-123, April.
  32. Mills, Brian M. & Salaga, Steven, 2018. "A natural experiment for efficient markets: Information quality and influential agents," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 23-39.
  33. Adi Schnytzer & Guy Weinberg, 2008. "Testing for Home Team and Favorite Biases in the Australian Rules Football Fixed-Odds and Point Spread Betting Markets," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 9(2), pages 173-190, April.
  34. Corey A. Shank, 2019. "NFL betting market efficiency, divisional rivals, and profitable strategies," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 36(3), pages 567-580, September.
  35. Brian Hill, 2018. "Shadow and Spillover Effects of Competition in NBA Playoffs," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 19(8), pages 1067-1092, December.
  36. Caiado, Jorge & Vieira, Aníbal & Bonito, Ana & Reis, Carlos & Fernandes, Francisco, 2006. "Previsão da eficácia ofensiva do futebol profissional: Um caso Português," MPRA Paper 2185, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  37. Angie Andrikogiannopoulou & Filippos Papakonstantinou, 2018. "Individual Reaction to Past Performance Sequences: Evidence from a Real Marketplace," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(4), pages 1957-1973, April.
  38. Quitzau, Jörn & Vöpel, Henning, 2009. "Der Faktor Zufall im Fußball: Eine empirische Untersuchung für die Saison 2007/08," HWWI Research Papers 1-22, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
  39. Sebastian Bervoets & Bruno Decreuse & Mathieu Faure, 2014. "A Renewed Analysis of Cheating in Contests: Theory and Evidence from Recovery Doping," AMSE Working Papers 1441, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France, revised Jun 2015.
  40. Justin Davis & Andy Fodor & Luke McElfresh & Kevin Kreiger, 2015. "Exploiting Week 2 Bias in the NFL Betting Markets," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 9(1), pages 53-67.
  41. Kevin Krieger & Andy Fodor & Greg Stevenson, 2013. "The Sensitivity of Findings of Expected Bookmaker Profitability," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 14(2), pages 186-202, April.
  42. Kyle W. Hampton, 2007. "The Double‐Auction Gambling Market: An Experimental Examination," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(3), pages 493-532, July.
  43. Bill M. Woodland & Linda M. Woodland, 2000. "Testing Contrarian Strategies in the National Football League," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 1(2), pages 187-193, May.
  44. Benjamin Waggoner & Daniel Wines & Brian P. Soebbing & Chad S. Seifried & Jean Michael Martinez, 2014. "“Hot Hand” in the National Basketball Association Point Spread Betting Market: A 34-Year Analysis," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 2(4), pages 1-12, November.
  45. Jaiho Chung & Joon Ho Hwang, 2010. "An Empirical Examination of the Parimutuel Sports Lottery Market versus the Bookmaker Market," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 76(4), pages 884-905, April.
  46. Jeremy Sandford & Paul Shea, 2013. "Optimal Setting of Point Spreads," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 80(317), pages 149-170, January.
  47. Hendrik Bessembinder & Kalok Chan, 1998. "Market Efficiency and the Returns to Technical Analysis," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 27(2), Summer.
  48. Michael DiFilippo & Kevin Krieger & Justin Davis & Andy Fodor, 2014. "Early Season NFL Over/Under Bias," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 15(2), pages 201-211, April.
  49. Michael A. Roach, 2018. "Testing Labor Market Efficiency Across Position Groups in the NFL," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 19(8), pages 1093-1121, December.
  50. Yoon Tae Sung & Scott Tainsky, 2014. "The National Football League Wagering Market," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 15(4), pages 365-384, August.
  51. Jinook Jeong & Jee Young Kim & Yoon Jae Ro, 2019. "On the efficiency of racetrack betting market: a new test for the favourite-longshot bias," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(54), pages 5817-5828, November.
  52. Tobias J. Moskowitz, 2021. "Asset Pricing and Sports Betting," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(6), pages 3153-3209, December.
  53. Gross, Johannes & Rebeggiani, Luca, 2018. "Chance or Ability? The Efficiency of the Football Betting Market Revisited," MPRA Paper 87230, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  54. Franc J.G.M. Klaasen & Jan R. Magnus, 2006. "Are Economic Agents Successful Optimizers? An Analysis through Service Strategy in Tennis," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 06-048/2, Tinbergen Institute.
  55. Vandenbruaene, Jonas & De Ceuster, Marc & Annaert, Jan, 2023. "Does time series momentum also exist outside traditional financial markets? Near-laboratory evidence from sports betting," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
  56. Daniel Kuester & Shane Sanders, 2011. "Regional information and market efficiency: the case of spread betting in United States college football," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 35(1), pages 116-122, January.
  57. Baryla Jr., Edward A. & Borghesi, Richard A. & Dare, William H. & Dennis, Steven A., 2007. "Learning, price formation and the early season bias in the NBA," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 155-164, September.
  58. Steven D. Levitt, 2003. "How Do Markets Function? An Empirical Analysis of Gambling on the National Football League," NBER Working Papers 9422, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  59. Rodney Paul & Andrew Weinbach, 2011. "NFL bettor biases and price setting: further tests of the Levitt hypothesis of sportsbook behaviour," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 193-197.
  60. Ray Fair & John Oster, 2002. "College Football Rankings and Market Efficiency," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2377, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Aug 2007.
  61. Klaassen, F.J.G.M. & Magnus, J.R., 2006. "Are Economic Agents Successful Optimizers? An Analysis Through Strategy in Tennis," Discussion Paper 2006-52, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  62. Linda M. Woodland & Bill M. Woodland, 2001. "Market Efficiency and Profitable Wagering in the National Hockey League: Can Bettors Score on Longshots?," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 67(4), pages 983-995, April.
  63. Andy Fodor, 2014. "Does Jet Lag Create A Profitable Opportunity For Nfl Bettors?," Journal of Gambling Business and Economics, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 8(1), pages 41-52.
  64. Radzevick, Joseph R. & Moore, Don A., 2008. "Myopic biases in competitions," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 206-218, November.
  65. Andy Fodor & Michael DiFilippo & Kevin Krieger & Justin Davis, 2013. "Inefficient pricing from holdover bias in NFL point spread markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(17), pages 1407-1418, September.
  66. Hwang, Joon Ho & Kim, Min-Su, 2015. "Misunderstanding of the binomial distribution, market inefficiency, and learning behavior: Evidence from an exotic sports betting market," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 243(1), pages 333-344.
  67. David Forrest & Robert Simmons, 2008. "Sentiment in the betting market on Spanish football," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 119-126.
  68. Andy Fodor & Kevin Krieger & David Kirch & Andrew Kreutzer, 2012. "Informational Differences In Nfl Point Spread And Moneyline Markets," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 6(2), pages 1-11.
  69. Lars Lefgren & Brennan Platt & Joseph Price, 2011. "Sticking with What (Barely) Worked," NBER Working Papers 17477, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  70. Rodney J. Paul & Andrew P. Weinbach, 2014. "Market Efficiency and Behavioral Biases in the WNBA Betting Market," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 2(2), pages 1-10, April.
  71. Miller, Thomas W. & Rapach, David E., 2013. "An intra-week efficiency analysis of bookie-quoted NFL betting lines in NYC," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 10-23.
  72. Rodney J Paul & Andrew Weinbach, 2012. "Wagering Preferences Of Nfl Bettors: Determinants Of Betting Volume," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 6(1), pages 42-55.
  73. Igan, Deniz & Pinheiro, Marcelo & Smith, John, 2012. "Racial biases and market outcomes: "White men can't jump," but would you bet on it?," MPRA Paper 36069, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  74. Quitzau, Jörn, 2005. "Faktor Zufall als Spielverderber: zur Prognostizierbarkeit von Fußballergebnissen – Wettmärkte als effizienter Informationslieferant," Research Notes 18, Deutsche Bank Research.
  75. Richard Borghesi, 2014. "The impact of the disposition effect on asset prices: insight from the NBA," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 38(4), pages 698-711, October.
  76. Richard Borghesi, 2008. "Widespread Corruption in Sports Gambling: Fact or Fiction?," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 74(4), pages 1063-1069, April.
  77. Greg Durham & Mukunthan Santhanakrishnan, 2012. "Point-Spread Wagering Markets' Analogue to Realized Return in Financial Markets," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 13(5), pages 554-566, October.
  78. Mark W. Nichols, 2014. "The Impact of Visiting Team Travel on Game Outcome and Biases in NFL Betting Markets," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 15(1), pages 78-96, February.
  79. Borghesi, Richard & Dare, William, 2009. "A test of the widespread-point-shaving theory," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 115-121, September.
  80. Desiree A. Desierto & John V.C. Nye & Jema M. Pamintuan, 2011. "The Demand for Unfair Gambles : Why Illegal Lotteries Persist," UP School of Economics Discussion Papers 201103, University of the Philippines School of Economics.
  81. Elisabete F. Simões Vieira, 2012. "Investor sentiment and market reaction: evidence on 2010 FIFA World Cup," International Journal of Economics and Accounting, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 3(1), pages 51-76.
  82. Murtha, Brian R., 2013. "Peaking at the right time: Perceptions, expectations, and effects," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 62-72.
  83. Andrew Healy, 2008. "Do Firms Have Short Memories?," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 9(4), pages 407-424, August.
  84. Fragiskos Archontakis & Evan Osborne, 2007. "Playing It Safe? A Fibonacci Strategy for Soccer Betting," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 8(3), pages 295-308, June.
  85. Bryan Boulier & H. O. Stekler & Sarah Amundson, 2006. "Testing the efficiency of the National Football League betting market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(3), pages 279-284.
  86. Sean Wever & David Aadland, 2012. "Herd behaviour and underdogs in the NFL," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 93-97, January.
  87. Daniel M. Chin, 2011. "A Test of Unbiasedness and Sports Book Profits in the NFL Point Spread Betting Merket Using Circadian Advantage," Journal of Gambling Business and Economics, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 5(3), pages 15-26, October.
  88. Kyle J. Kain & Trevon D. Logan, 2014. "Are Sports Betting Markets Prediction Markets?," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 15(1), pages 45-63, February.
  89. Klaassen, Franc J.G.M. & Magnus, Jan R., 2009. "The efficiency of top agents: An analysis through service strategy in tennis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 148(1), pages 72-85, January.
  90. Evan Osborne, 2001. "Efficient Markets? Don’t Bet on It," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 2(1), pages 50-61, February.
  91. Richard Borghesi, 2008. "Weather biases in the NFL totals market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(12), pages 947-953.
  92. Matthew Amor & William Griffiths, 2003. "Modelling the Behaviour and Performance of Australian Football Tipsters," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 871, The University of Melbourne.
  93. Ray C. Fair & John F. Oster, 2007. "College Football Rankings and Market Efficiency," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 8(1), pages 3-18, February.
  94. Avery, Christopher & Chevalier, Judith, 1999. "Identifying Investor Sentiment from Price Paths: The Case of Football Betting," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72(4), pages 493-521, October.
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