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Playing It Safe? A Fibonacci Strategy for Soccer Betting

Author

Listed:
  • Fragiskos Archontakis

    (Universidad Politécnica de Valencia-CSIC)

  • Evan Osborne

    (Wright State University)

Abstract

Soccer betting in Europe has grown rapidly in the past two decades. It is well known that such sports betting markets can be analyzed similarly to financial markets. The present article differs from others in the literature in two respects. The first is that the outcome of betting interest is the draw. The second is the betting strategy, which relies on the Fibonacci sequence to generate bets. Using this approach on International Federation of Football Association World Cup Finals data, it is possible to earn economic profits through this strategy in expectation, albeit with fairly large risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Fragiskos Archontakis & Evan Osborne, 2007. "Playing It Safe? A Fibonacci Strategy for Soccer Betting," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 8(3), pages 295-308, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jospec:v:8:y:2007:i:3:p:295-308
    DOI: 10.1177/1527002506286775
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. William Goetzmann, 2003. "Fibonacci and the Financial Revolution," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm432, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Mar 2004.
    6. Pope, Peter F & Peel, David A, 1989. "Information, Prices and Efficiency in a Fixed-Odds Betting Market," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 56(223), pages 323-341, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lahvicka, Jiri, 2013. "The Fibonacci Strategy Revisited: Can You Really Make Money by Betting on Soccer Draws?," MPRA Paper 47649, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Dominic Cortis, 2015. "Expected Values And Variances In Bookmaker Payouts: A Theoretical Approach Towards Setting Limits On Odds," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 9(1), pages 1-14.
    3. Nicos Zafiris, 2016. "Is There Such A Thing As A Safe Bet ?," Journal of Gambling Business and Economics, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 10(1), pages 40-65.
    4. Buhagiar, Ranier & Cortis, Dominic & Newall, Philip W.S., 2018. "Why do some soccer bettors lose more money than others?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 85-93.
    5. Ian Milliner & Paul White & Don J. Webber, 2009. "A Statistical Development of Fixed Odds Betting Rules in Soccer," Journal of Gambling Business and Economics, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 3(1), pages 89-99, April.

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