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Fundamentals or Noise? Evidence from the Professional Basketball Betting Market

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  • Brown, William O
  • Sauer, Raymond D

Abstract

This paper uses the betting market for professional basketball games to address the issue of unexplained asset price volatility. A pricing model is presented that identifies two components in point spreads for professional basketball games. Both components--the market's estimate of relative team abilities and an idiosyncratic factor--are essentially unobserved but can be identified ex post. The structure of this market enables tests of competing hypotheses about point spread variation. The tests reject the hypothesis that variation in the two components represents irrelevant noise. The hypothesis that unobserved fundamentals account for this variation is consistent with the data. Copyright 1993 by American Finance Association.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by American Finance Association in its journal Journal of Finance.

Volume (Year): 48 (1993)
Issue (Month): 4 (September)
Pages: 1193-1209

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Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:48:y:1993:i:4:p:1193-1209

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Cited by:
  1. Brown, Gregory W. & Hartzell, Jay C., 2001. "Market reaction to public information: The atypical case of the Boston Celtics," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2-3), pages 333-370, May.
  2. Igan, Deniz & Pinheiro, Marcelo & Smith, John, 2011. ""White men can't jump," but would you bet on it?," MPRA Paper 31469, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Stekler, H.O. & Sendor, David & Verlander, Richard, 2010. "Issues in sports forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 606-621, July.
  4. Raymond Sauer & J. Waller & Jahn Hakes, 2010. "The progress of the betting in a baseball game," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 142(3), pages 297-313, March.
  5. Herman O. Stekler, 2007. "Sports Forecasting," Working Papers 2007-001, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting, revised Jan 2007.
  6. Baryla Jr., Edward A. & Borghesi, Richard A. & Dare, William H. & Dennis, Steven A., 2007. "Learning, price formation and the early season bias in the NBA," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 155-164, September.
  7. Arne Feddersen & Brad Humphreys & Brian Soebbing, 2013. "Sentiment Bias in National Basketball Association Betting," Working Papers 13-03, Department of Economics, West Virginia University.
  8. Igan, Deniz & Pinheiro, Marcelo & Smith, John, 2012. "Racial biases and market outcomes: "White men can't jump," but would you bet on it?," MPRA Paper 36069, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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