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A Statistical Development of Fixed Odds Betting Rules in Soccer

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Author Info

  • Ian Milliner
  • Paul White
  • Don J. Webber

Abstract

Two simple but seemingly profitable betting rules for betting on the away win in association football are developed. One rule is consistent with avoiding those games in which there is a clear favourite. The second rule is based directly on modelling bookmaker odds and assessing the residuals under the fitted model. Contrary to previous research the betting rule using the residuals suggests avoiding betting on those games where there are large discrepancies between bookmaker odds and predicted-model odds.

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

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File URL: http://www.ubplj.org/index.php/jgbe/article/view/543
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by University of Buckingham Press in its journal Journal of Gambling Business and Economics.

Volume (Year): 3 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 (April)
Pages: 89-99

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Handle: RePEc:buc:jgbeco:v:3:y:2009:i:1:p:89-99

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Web: http://www.jgbe.com/index_files/Page492.htm

Related research

Keywords: Fixed odds betting rules; away win; bookmakers’ probabilities;

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  1. Avery, Christopher & Chevalier, Judith, 1999. "Identifying Investor Sentiment from Price Paths: The Case of Football Betting," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72(4), pages 493-521, October.
  2. Ron Bird & Michael McCrae, 1987. "Tests of the Efficiency of Racetrack Betting Using Bookmaker Odds," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(12), pages 1552-1562, December.
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