A Statistical Development of Fixed Odds Betting Rules in Soccer
AbstractTwo simple but seemingly profitable betting rules for betting on the away win in association football are developed. One rule is consistent with avoiding those games in which there is a clear favourite. The second rule is based directly on modelling bookmaker odds and assessing the residuals under the fitted model. Contrary to previous research the betting rule using the residuals suggests avoiding betting on those games where there are large discrepancies between bookmaker odds and predicted-model odds.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by University of Buckingham Press in its journal Journal of Gambling Business and Economics.
Volume (Year): 3 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 (April)
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Web page: http://www.ubpl.co.uk/
Other versions of this item:
- Ian Milliner & Paul White & Don Webber, 2008. "A statistical development of fixed odds betting rules in soccer," Discussion Papers 0807, University of the West of England, Department of Economics.
- L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Recreation; Tourism
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ron Bird & Michael McCrae, 1987. "Tests of the Efficiency of Racetrack Betting Using Bookmaker Odds," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(12), pages 1552-1562, December.
- Avery, Christopher & Chevalier, Judith, 1999. "Identifying Investor Sentiment from Price Paths: The Case of Football Betting," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72(4), pages 493-521, October.
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