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A Statistical Development of Fixed Odds Betting Rules in Soccer

Author

Listed:
  • Ian Milliner
  • Paul White
  • Don J. Webber

Abstract

Two simple but seemingly profitable betting rules for betting on the away win in association football are developed. One rule is consistent with avoiding those games in which there is a clear favourite. The second rule is based directly on modelling bookmaker odds and assessing the residuals under the fitted model. Contrary to previous research the betting rule using the residuals suggests avoiding betting on those games where there are large discrepancies between bookmaker odds and predicted-model odds.
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Suggested Citation

  • Ian Milliner & Paul White & Don J. Webber, 2009. "A Statistical Development of Fixed Odds Betting Rules in Soccer," Journal of Gambling Business and Economics, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 3(1), pages 89-99, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:buc:jgbeco:v:3:y:2009:i:1:p:89-99
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    File URL: http://www.ubplj.org/index.php/jgbe/article/view/543
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ron Bird & Michael Mccrae, 2008. "Tests Of The Efficiency Of Racetrack Betting Using Bookmaker Odds," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Donald B Hausch & Victor SY Lo & William T Ziemba (ed.), Efficiency Of Racetrack Betting Markets, chapter 59, pages 593-603, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Fragiskos Archontakis & Evan Osborne, 2007. "Playing It Safe? A Fibonacci Strategy for Soccer Betting," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 8(3), pages 295-308, June.
    3. Avery, Christopher & Chevalier, Judith, 1999. "Identifying Investor Sentiment from Price Paths: The Case of Football Betting," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72(4), pages 493-521, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Nawapon Nakharutai & Camila C. S. Caiado & Matthias C. M. Troffaes, 2019. "Evaluating betting odds and free coupons using desirability," Papers 1901.03645, arXiv.org.
    2. Carlos Gomez-Gonzalez & Julio del Corral, 2018. "The betting market over time: overround and surebets in European football," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 7(4), pages 129-136.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fixed odds betting rules; away win; bookmakers’ probabilities;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

    Statistics

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