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A statistical development of fixed odds betting rules in soccer

Author

Listed:
  • Ian Milliner

    (Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of the West of England, Bristol, UK)

  • Paul White

    (Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of the West of England, Bristol, UK)

  • Don Webber

    () (School of Economics, University of the West of England, Bristol)

Abstract

Two simple but seemingly profitable betting rules for betting on the away win in association football are developed. One rule is consistent with avoiding those games in which there is a clear favourite. The second rule is based directly on modelling bookmaker odds and assessing the residuals under the fitted model. Contrary to previous research the betting rule using the residuals suggests avoiding betting on those games where there are large discrepancies between bookmaker odds and predicted-model odds.

Suggested Citation

  • Ian Milliner & Paul White & Don Webber, 2008. "A statistical development of fixed odds betting rules in soccer," Working Papers 0807, Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Bristol Business School, University of the West of England, Bristol.
  • Handle: RePEc:uwe:wpaper:0807
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    File URL: http://carecon.org.uk/DPs/0807.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2008
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ron Bird & Michael McCrae, 1987. "Tests of the Efficiency of Racetrack Betting Using Bookmaker Odds," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(12), pages 1552-1562, December.
    2. Avery, Christopher & Chevalier, Judith, 1999. "Identifying Investor Sentiment from Price Paths: The Case of Football Betting," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72(4), pages 493-521, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fixed odds betting rules; away win; bookmakers’ probabilities;

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

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