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A Statistical Development of Fixed Odds Betting Rules in Soccer

Author

Listed:
  • Ian Milliner
  • Paul White
  • Don J. Webber

Abstract

Two simple but seemingly profitable betting rules for betting on the away win in association football are developed. One rule is consistent with avoiding those games in which there is a clear favourite. The second rule is based directly on modelling bookmaker odds and assessing the residuals under the fitted model. Contrary to previous research the betting rule using the residuals suggests avoiding betting on those games where there are large discrepancies between bookmaker odds and predicted-model odds.
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Suggested Citation

  • Ian Milliner & Paul White & Don J. Webber, 2009. "A Statistical Development of Fixed Odds Betting Rules in Soccer," Journal of Gambling Business and Economics, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 3(1), pages 89-99, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:buc:jgbeco:v:3:y:2009:i:1:p:89-99
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    Cited by:

    1. Carlos Gomez-Gonzalez & Julio del Corral, 2018. "The betting market over time: overround and surebets in European football," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 7(4), pages 129-136.
    2. Nawapon Nakharutai & Camila C. S. Caiado & Matthias C. M. Troffaes, 2019. "Evaluating betting odds and free coupons using desirability," Papers 1901.03645, arXiv.org.

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    JEL classification:

    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

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