Ian Milliner (Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of the West of England, Bristol, UK) Paul White (Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of the West of England, Bristol, UK) Don Webber () (School of Economics, University of the West of England, Bristol)
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Two simple but seemingly profitable betting rules for betting on the away win in association football are developed. One rule is consistent with avoiding those games in which there is a clear favourite. The second rule is based directly on modelling bookmaker odds and assessing the residuals under the fitted model. Contrary to previous research the betting rule using the residuals suggests avoiding betting on those games where there are large discrepancies between bookmaker odds and predicted-model odds.
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Paper provided by University of the West of England, Department of Economics in its series Discussion Papers with number
0807.
Find related papers by JEL classification: D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
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