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Herd behaviour and underdogs in the NFL

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Author Info

  • Sean Wever
  • David Aadland

Abstract

Previous research has failed to draw any clear conclusions about the efficiency of the billion-dollar gambling industry for National Football League (NFL) games. We build on previous research and expose a new market inefficiency, which is consistent with the well-documented notion of herd behaviour in behavioural finance. A differential strategy of betting on home and visitor underdogs with large closing lines can produce statistically significant positive returns.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/13504851.2011.568384
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 19 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 93-97

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Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:19:y:2012:i:1:p:93-97

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Cited by:
  1. Andy Fodor & Michael DiFilippo & Kevin Krieger & Justin Davis, 2013. "Inefficient pricing from holdover bias in NFL point spread markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(17), pages 1407-1418, September.

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