IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jobhdp/v120y2013i1p62-72.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Peaking at the right time: Perceptions, expectations, and effects

Author

Listed:
  • Murtha, Brian R.

Abstract

We explore the concept of peaking at the right time. Study 1 is a content analysis of 325 National Football League articles identifying four key triggers that prompt proclamations of peaking at the right time: turnarounds, impressive prior events, winning streaks, and out-ofs. Study 2 experimental results reveal that turnarounds most strongly impact perceptions of peaking at the right time, anticipated performance, and expectations faced. However, nuanced differences occur across two time periods during the season. Studies 1 and 2 also indicate that observers expect teams to win their next games more often than actually happens. Study 3 demonstrates that teams prepare harder and make riskier game plans when their next opponent is peaking at the right time. Study 4 suggests that individuals more strongly desiring to peak at the right time than others will value various factors differently at different time points when envisioning upcoming seasons.

Suggested Citation

  • Murtha, Brian R., 2013. "Peaking at the right time: Perceptions, expectations, and effects," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 62-72.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jobhdp:v:120:y:2013:i:1:p:62-72
    DOI: 10.1016/j.obhdp.2012.09.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0749597812001203
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.obhdp.2012.09.003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Folkes, Valerie S, 1988. "The Availability Heuristic and Perceived Risk," Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Consumer Research Inc., vol. 15(1), pages 13-23, June.
    2. Roger C. Vergin & Michael Scriabin, 1978. "Winning Strategies for Wagering on National Football League Games," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 24(8), pages 809-818, April.
    3. Kolbe, Richard H & Burnett, Melissa S, 1991. "Content-Analysis Research: An Examination of Applications with Directives for Improving Research Reliability and Objectivity," Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Consumer Research Inc., vol. 18(2), pages 243-250, September.
    4. Alexander Chernev, 2011. "Semantic Anchoring in Sequential Evaluations of Vices and Virtues," Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Consumer Research Inc., vol. 37(5), pages 761-774.
    5. Carlson, Kurt A. & Shu, Suzanne B., 2007. "The rule of three: How the third event signals the emergence of a streak," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 104(1), pages 113-121, September.
    6. Forsythe, Robert & Forrest Nelson & George R. Neumann & Jack Wright, 1992. "Anatomy of an Experimental Political Stock Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(5), pages 1142-1161, December.
    7. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. "Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July.
    8. Mussweiler, Thomas & Strack, Fritz, 2001. "The Semantics of Anchoring," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 234-255, November.
    9. Camerer, Colin F, 1989. "Does the Basketball Market Believe in the 'Hot Hand'?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(5), pages 1257-1261, December.
    10. Gray, Philip K & Gray, Stephen F, 1997. "Testing Market Efficiency: Evidence from the NFL Sports Betting Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1725-1737, September.
    11. Gandar, John, et al, 1988. " Testing Rationality in the Point Spread Betting Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(4), pages 995-1008, September.
    12. Avery, Christopher & Chevalier, Judith, 1999. "Identifying Investor Sentiment from Price Paths: The Case of Football Betting," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72(4), pages 493-521, October.
    13. Gregory R. Durham & Michael G. Hertzel & J. Spencer Martin, 2005. "The Market Impact of Trends and Sequences in Performance: New Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(5), pages 2551-2569, October.
    14. Kassarjian, Harold H, 1977. "Content Analysis in Consumer Research," Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Consumer Research Inc., vol. 4(1), pages 8-18, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kevin Krieger & Justin L. Davis & James Strode, 2021. "Patience is a virtue: exploiting behavior bias in gambling markets," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 45(4), pages 735-750, October.
    2. Avery, Derek R. & McKay, Patrick F. & Volpone, Sabrina D. & Malka, Ari, 2015. "Are companies beholden to bias? The impact of leader race on consumer purchasing behavior," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 85-102.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Greg Durham & Tod Perry, 2008. "The Impact of Sentiment on Point Spreads in the College Football Wagering Market," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 2(1), pages 1-27, May.
    2. Michael Sinkey & Trevon Logan, 2014. "Does the Hot Hand Drive the Market? Evidence from College Football Betting Markets," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 40(4), pages 583-603, September.
    3. Choi, Darwin & Hui, Sam K., 2014. "The role of surprise: Understanding overreaction and underreaction to unanticipated events using in-play soccer betting market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 107(PB), pages 614-629.
    4. Tobias J. Moskowitz, 2021. "Asset Pricing and Sports Betting," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(6), pages 3153-3209, December.
    5. Miller, Thomas W. & Rapach, David E., 2013. "An intra-week efficiency analysis of bookie-quoted NFL betting lines in NYC," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 10-23.
    6. Sathya Ramesh & Ragib Mostofa & Marco Bornstein & John Dobelman, 2019. "Beating the House: Identifying Inefficiencies in Sports Betting Markets," Papers 1910.08858, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2019.
    7. Bill M. Woodland & Linda M. Woodland, 2000. "Testing Contrarian Strategies in the National Football League," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 1(2), pages 187-193, May.
    8. Stekler, H.O. & Sendor, David & Verlander, Richard, 2010. "Issues in sports forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 606-621, July.
      • Herman O. Stekler & David Sendor & Richard Verlander, 2009. "Issues in Sports Forecasting," Working Papers 2009-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    9. Justin Cox & Adam L. Schwartz & Bonnie F. Van Ness & Robert A. Van Ness, 2021. "The Predictive Power of College Football Spreads: Regular Season Versus Bowl Games," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 22(3), pages 251-273, April.
    10. Quitzau, Jörn & Vöpel, Henning, 2009. "Der Faktor Zufall im Fußball: Eine empirische Untersuchung für die Saison 2007/08," HWWI Research Papers 1-22, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    11. Adi Schnytzer & Guy Weinberg, 2008. "Testing for Home Team and Favorite Biases in the Australian Rules Football Fixed-Odds and Point Spread Betting Markets," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 9(2), pages 173-190, April.
    12. Kevin Krieger & Andy Fodor & Greg Stevenson, 2013. "The Sensitivity of Findings of Expected Bookmaker Profitability," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 14(2), pages 186-202, April.
    13. Durand, Robert B. & Patterson, Fernando M. & Shank, Corey A., 2021. "Behavioral biases in the NFL gambling market: Overreaction to news and the recency bias," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    14. Schmidt, Carsten & Werwatz, Axel, 2002. "How accurate do markets predict the outcome of an event? The Euro 2000 soccer championships experiment," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2002,29, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    15. Joshua B. Miller & Adam Sanjurjo, 2019. "Surprised by the Hot Hand Fallacy? A Truth in the Law of Small Numbers," Papers 1902.01265, arXiv.org.
    16. Miller, Joshua B. & Sanjurjo, Adam, 2021. "Is it a fallacy to believe in the hot hand in the NBA three-point contest?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    17. David Paton & Leighton Vaughan Williams, 2005. "Forecasting outcomes in spread betting markets: can bettors use 'quarbs' to beat the book?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(2), pages 139-154.
    18. Angie Andrikogiannopoulou & Filippos Papakonstantinou, 2018. "Individual Reaction to Past Performance Sequences: Evidence from a Real Marketplace," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(4), pages 1957-1973, April.
    19. Miller, Joshua Benjamin & Sanjurjo, Adam, 2018. "A Cold Shower for the Hot Hand Fallacy: Robust Evidence that Belief in the Hot Hand is Justified," OSF Preprints pj79r, Center for Open Science.
    20. Michael DiFilippo & Kevin Krieger & Justin Davis & Andy Fodor, 2014. "Early Season NFL Over/Under Bias," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 15(2), pages 201-211, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jobhdp:v:120:y:2013:i:1:p:62-72. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/obhdp .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.