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Is it a fallacy to believe in the hot hand in the NBA three-point contest?

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  • Miller, Joshua B.
  • Sanjurjo, Adam

Abstract

The NBA Three-Point Contest has been considered an ideal setting to study the hot hand, as it showcases the elite professional shooters that hot hand beliefs are typically directed towards, but in an environment that eliminates many of the confounds present in game action. We collect 34 years of NBA Three-Point Contest television broadcast data (1986–2020), apply a statistical approach that improves on those of previous studies, and find considerable evidence of hot hand shooting in and across individuals. Our results support fans’ and experts’ widely held belief in the hot hand among NBA shooters.

Suggested Citation

  • Miller, Joshua B. & Sanjurjo, Adam, 2021. "Is it a fallacy to believe in the hot hand in the NBA three-point contest?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:138:y:2021:i:c:s0014292121001240
    DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2021.103771
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Hot hand fallacy; Hot hand effect;

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • C93 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Field Experiments
    • D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles

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