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Hot Shots: An Analysis of the “Hot Hand†in NBA Field Goal and Free Throw Shooting

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  • Robert Lantis
  • Erik Nesson

Abstract

We investigate the hot hand using detailed data on free throws and field goals attempts for 12 NBA seasons. We find a small hot hand for free throws, which more than doubles for longer streaks of made free throws. Both offenses and defenses respond to field goals, but a made field goal does not change the probability that a player makes his next field goal attempt, and longer streaks of made field goals reduce the probability that a player makes his next field goal attempt. Finally, a made field goal reduces the team’s expected points on their next shot.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Lantis & Erik Nesson, 2021. "Hot Shots: An Analysis of the “Hot Hand†in NBA Field Goal and Free Throw Shooting," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 22(6), pages 639-677, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jospec:v:22:y:2021:i:6:p:639-677
    DOI: 10.1177/15270025211006889
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Wen‐Jhan Jane, 2023. "Hot hand or choking under pressure – Evidence from professional basketball," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 76(2), pages 223-254, May.

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