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Sentiment in the betting market on Spanish football

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Author Info

  • David Forrest
  • Robert Simmons

Abstract

We employ a sample of over 3000 bets available on matches from the top tier of Spanish football in an examination of the efficiency of betting odds offered in the on-line betting market. Odds appear to be influenced by the relative number of fans of each club in a match, with supporters of the more popular team offered more favourable terms on their wagers. We report similar findings for a sample of games from Scotland. The results contrast with studies of American sports betting markets but are consistent with competitive behaviour by profit maximizing bookmakers in a market where bettors can choose between several operators.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 40 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 119-126

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Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:40:y:2008:i:1:p:119-126

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Cited by:
  1. Igan, Deniz & Pinheiro, Marcelo & Smith, John, 2012. "Racial biases and market outcomes: "White men can't jump," but would you bet on it?," MPRA Paper 36069, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Egon Franck & Erwin Verbeek & Stephan Nüesch, 2008. "Prediction Accuracy of Different Market Structures – Bookmakers versus a Betting Exchange," Working Papers 0025, University of Zurich, Center for Research in Sports Administration (CRSA), revised 2009.
  3. B Buraimo & R Simmons, 2007. "A tale of two audiences: spectators, television viewers and outcome uncertainty in Spanish football," Working Papers 591121, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
  4. Strumbelj, E. & Sikonja, M. Robnik, 2010. "Online bookmakers' odds as forecasts: The case of European soccer leagues," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 482-488, July.
  5. repec:lan:wpaper:3573 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Arne Feddersen & Brad Humphreys & Brian Soebbing, 2013. "Sentiment Bias in National Basketball Association Betting," Working Papers 13-03, Department of Economics, West Virginia University.
  7. Hvattum, Lars Magnus & Arntzen, Halvard, 2010. "Using ELO ratings for match result prediction in association football," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 460-470, July.
  8. repec:lan:wpaper:3575 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Page, Lionel, 2009. "Is there an optimistic bias on betting markets?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 70-72, February.
  10. Igan, Deniz & Pinheiro, Marcelo & Smith, John, 2011. ""White men can't jump," but would you bet on it?," MPRA Paper 31469, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Sebastian Braun & Michael Kvasnicka, 2008. "Against All Odds? National Sentiment and Wagering on European Football," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2008-032, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  12. Nilsson, Håkan & Andersson, Patric, 2010. "Making the seemingly impossible appear possible: Effects of conjunction fallacies in evaluations of bets on football games," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 172-180, April.
  13. Andy Fodor & Michael DiFilippo & Kevin Krieger & Justin Davis, 2013. "Inefficient pricing from holdover bias in NFL point spread markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(17), pages 1407-1418, September.
  14. repec:lan:wpaper:3681 is not listed on IDEAS
  15. repec:lan:wpaper:3966 is not listed on IDEAS
  16. Raphael Flepp & Stephan Nüesch & Egon Franck, 2013. " Liquidity, Market Efficiency and the Influence of Noise Traders: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from the Betting Industry," Working Papers 341, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).
  17. Raphael Flepp & Stephan Nüesch & Egon Franck, 2013. " The Liquidity Advantage of Quote-driven Markets: Evidence from the Betting Industry," Working Papers 342, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).

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