The heterogeneous effects of training incidence and duration on labor market transitions
AbstractThis paper estimates the impact of training incidence and duration on employment transitions accounting for the endogeneity of program participation and duration. We specify a very flexible bivariate random effects probit model for employment and training participation and we use Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques for estimation. We develop a simulation approach that uses the estimated coefficients and individual specific effects from the MCMC iterations to calculate the posterior distributions of different treatment effects of interest. Our estimation results imply positive effects of training on the employment probability of the treated, lying between 12 and 21 percentage points ten quarters after program start. The effects are higher for women than for men and higher in West Germany than in East Germany. Further, we find that the effect of training versus waiting underestimates the effect of training versus no training in the medium and long run by a third. Finally, our results show that longer planned enrolment lengths of three and four quarters as opposed to just two quarters lead to an increase in employment rates in the medium and long run by four to eleven percentage points. --
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research in its series ZEW Discussion Papers with number 10-077.
Date of creation: 2010
Date of revision:
evaluation; active labor market programs; dynamic non-linear panel data models; MCMC;
Other versions of this item:
- Fitzenberger, Bernd & Osikominu, Aderonke & Paul, Marie, 2010. "The Heterogeneous Effects of Training Incidence and Duration on Labor Market Transitions," IZA Discussion Papers 5269, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- J68 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Public Policy
- C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
- C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-11-13 (All new papers)
- NEP-HRM-2010-11-13 (Human Capital & Human Resource Management)
- NEP-LAB-2010-11-13 (Labour Economics)
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- Kluve, Jochen & Rinne, Ulf & Uhlendorff, Arne & Zhao, Zhong, 2012. "Endogenous Exit Bias in Training Programs for Unemployed Workers," IZA Discussion Papers 6565, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
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