IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/aluord/1608.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

End-of-year spending and the long-run employment effects of training programs for the unemployed

Author

Listed:
  • Fitzenberger, Bernd
  • Furdas, Marina
  • Sajons, Christoph

Abstract

This study re-estimates the employment effects of training programs for the unemployed using exogenous variation in participation caused by budget rules in Germany in the 1980s and early 1990s, resulting in the infamous "end-of-year spending". In addition to estimating complier effects with 2SLS, we implement a flexible control-function approach to obtain the average treatment effect on the treated (ATT). Our findings are: Participants who are only selected for budgetary reasons do not benefit from training programs. However, the ATT estimates suggest modest positive effects in the long run. Longer programs are more effective than shorter and more practice-oriented programs.

Suggested Citation

  • Fitzenberger, Bernd & Furdas, Marina & Sajons, Christoph, 2016. "End-of-year spending and the long-run employment effects of training programs for the unemployed," Freiburg Discussion Papers on Constitutional Economics 16/08, Walter Eucken Institut e.V..
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:aluord:1608
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/148609/1/874969093.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David Card & Jochen Kluve & Andrea Weber, 2010. "Active Labour Market Policy Evaluations: A Meta-Analysis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(548), pages 452-477, November.
    2. Frölich, Markus & Lechner, Michael, 2010. "Exploiting Regional Treatment Intensity for the Evaluation of Labor Market Policies," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(491), pages 1014-1029.
    3. Caliendo, Marco & Mahlstedt, Robert & Mitnik, Oscar A., 2017. "Unobservable, but unimportant? The relevance of usually unobserved variables for the evaluation of labor market policies," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 14-25.
    4. Michael Lechner & Ruth Miquel & Conny Wunsch, 2011. "Long‐Run Effects Of Public Sector Sponsored Training In West Germany," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 742-784, August.
    5. Ayal Kimhi, 1999. "Estimation of an endogenous switching regression model with discrete dependent variables: Monte-Carlo analysis and empirical application of three estimators," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 225-241.
    6. Martin Biewen & Bernd Fitzenberger & Aderonke Osikominu & Marie Paul, 2014. "The Effectiveness of Public-Sponsored Training Revisited: The Importance of Data and Methodological Choices," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 32(4), pages 837-897.
    7. Aderonke Osikominu, 2013. "Quick Job Entry or Long-Term Human Capital Development? The Dynamic Effects of Alternative Training Schemes," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(1), pages 313-342.
    8. Bernd Fitzenberger & Aderonke Osikominu & Robert Völter, 2008. "Get Training or Wait? Long-Run Employment Effects of Training Programs for the Unemployed in West Germany," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 91-92, pages 321-355.
    9. Merchant, Kenneth A., 1985. "Budgeting and the propensity to create budgetary slack," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 201-210, April.
    10. Jeffrey B. Liebman & Neale Mahoney, 2013. "Do Expiring Budgets Lead to Wasteful Year-End Spending? Evidence from Federal Procurement," NBER Working Papers 19481, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Katarina Richardson & Gerard J. Berg, 2013. "Duration Dependence Versus Unobserved Heterogeneity In Treatment Effects: Swedish Labor Market Training And The Transition Rate To Employment," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 325-351, March.
    12. Richard W. Blundell & James L. Powell, 2004. "Endogeneity in Semiparametric Binary Response Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 71(3), pages 655-679.
    13. Carolyn Heinrich & Peter Mueser & Kenneth Troske & Kyung-Seong Jeon & Daver Kahvecioglu, 2013. "Do Public Employment and Training Programs Work?," IZA Journal of Labor Economics, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 2(1), pages 1-23, December.
    14. Neale Mahoney, 2013. "Expiring Budgets and Wasteful Year-End Spending in Federal Procurement," 2013 Meeting Papers 705, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Andrews,Donald W. K. & Stock,James H. (ed.), 2005. "Identification and Inference for Econometric Models," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521844413.
    16. Kluve, Jochen, 2010. "The effectiveness of European active labor market programs," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 904-918, December.
    17. Heckman, James J, 1978. "Dummy Endogenous Variables in a Simultaneous Equation System," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(4), pages 931-959, July.
    18. Terza, Joseph V. & Basu, Anirban & Rathouz, Paul J., 2008. "Two-stage residual inclusion estimation: Addressing endogeneity in health econometric modeling," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 531-543, May.
    19. Bernd Fitzenberger & Stefan Speckesser, 2007. "Employment effects of the provision of specific professional skills and techniques in Germany," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 529-573, May.
    20. John Martin, 2015. "Activation and active labour market policies in OECD countries: stylised facts and evidence on their effectiveness," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-29, December.
    21. Ham, John C & LaLonde, Robert J, 1996. "The Effect of Sample Selection and Initial Conditions in Duration Models: Evidence from Experimental Data on Training," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(1), pages 175-205, January.
    22. Chiburis, Richard C. & Das, Jishnu & Lokshin, Michael, 2012. "A practical comparison of the bivariate probit and linear IV estimators," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 762-766.
    23. Fredriksson, Peter & Johansson, Per, 2008. "Dynamic Treatment Assignment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 435-445.
    24. Barbara Sianesi, 2004. "An Evaluation of the Swedish System of Active Labor Market Programs in the 1990s," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 133-155, February.
    25. David Card & Jochen Kluve & Andrea Weber, 2018. "What Works? A Meta Analysis of Recent Active Labor Market Program Evaluations," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 16(3), pages 894-931.
    26. Fitzenberger, Bernd & Osikominu, Aderonke & Paul, Marie, 2010. "The Heterogeneous Effects of Training Incidence and Duration on Labor Market Transitions," IZA Discussion Papers 5269, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    27. Heckman, James J. & Lalonde, Robert J. & Smith, Jeffrey A., 1999. "The economics and econometrics of active labor market programs," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 31, pages 1865-2097, Elsevier.
    28. Andersson, Fredrik W. & Holzer, Harry J. & Lane, Julia & Rosenblum, David & Smith, Jeffrey A., 2013. "Does Federally-Funded Job Training Work? Nonexperimental Estimates of WIA Training Impacts Using Longitudinal Data on Workers and Firms," IZA Discussion Papers 7621, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    29. Joseph Terza, 2009. "Parametric Nonlinear Regression with Endogenous Switching," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(6), pages 555-580.
    30. Rivers, Douglas & Vuong, Quang H., 1988. "Limited information estimators and exogeneity tests for simultaneous probit models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 347-366, November.
    31. James J. Heckman & Sergio Urzua & Edward Vytlacil, 2008. "Instrumental Variables in Models with Multiple Outcomes: The General Unordered Case," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 91-92, pages 151-174.
    32. Fertig, Michael & Schmidt, Christoph M., 2000. "Discretionary Measures of Active Labor Market Policy: The German Employment Promotion Reform in Perspective," IZA Discussion Papers 182, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    33. Gary Solon & Steven J. Haider & Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2015. "What Are We Weighting For?," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 50(2), pages 301-316.
    34. Richard Blundell & Lorraine Dearden & Barbara Sianesi, 2005. "Evaluating the effect of education on earnings: models, methods and results from the National Child Development Survey," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 168(3), pages 473-512, July.
    35. Heckman, James, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
    36. Lung-Fei Lee, 1982. "Some Approaches to the Correction of Selectivity Bias," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 49(3), pages 355-372.
    37. Sianesi, Barbara, 2008. "Differential effects of active labour market programs for the unemployed," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 370-399, June.
    38. Li Y.P. & Propert K. J. & Rosenbaum P. R., 2001. "Balanced Risk Set Matching," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 870-882, September.
    39. Bernd Fitzenberger & Grit Muehler, 2015. "Dips and Floors in Workplace Training: Gender Differences and Supervisors," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 62(4), pages 400-429, September.
    40. Aakvik, Arild & Heckman, James J. & Vytlacil, Edward J., 2005. "Estimating treatment effects for discrete outcomes when responses to treatment vary: an application to Norwegian vocational rehabilitation programs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 125(1-2), pages 15-51.
    41. Card, David, 2001. "Estimating the Return to Schooling: Progress on Some Persistent Econometric Problems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(5), pages 1127-1160, September.
    42. repec:adr:anecst:y:2008:i:91-92:p:15 is not listed on IDEAS
    43. A. D. Roy, 1951. "Some Thoughts On The Distribution Of Earnings," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 3(2), pages 135-146.
    44. repec:adr:anecst:y:2008:i:91-92:p:08 is not listed on IDEAS
    45. Wooldridge, Jeffrey M., 2014. "Quasi-maximum likelihood estimation and testing for nonlinear models with endogenous explanatory variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(1), pages 226-234.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Miroslav Štefánik & Katarína Karasová & Ivana Studená, 2020. "Can supporting workplace insertions of unemployed recent graduates improve their long-term employability?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(2), pages 245-265, May.
    2. Machin, Stephen & McNally, Sandra & Terrier, Camille & Ventura, Guglielmo, 2020. "Closing the Gap between Vocational and General Education? Evidence from University Technical Colleges in England," IZA Discussion Papers 13837, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Jorge Rodríguez & Fernando Saltiel & Sergio Urzúa, 2022. "Dynamic treatment effects of job training," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(2), pages 242-269, March.
    4. Agata Maida & Daniela Sonedda, 2019. "Getting out of the starting gate on the right foot: employment effects of investment in human capital," LABORatorio R. Revelli Working Papers Series 164, LABORatorio R. Revelli, Centre for Employment Studies.
    5. Stuart Baumann, 2019. "Putting It Off for Later: Procrastination and End of Fiscal Year Spending Spikes," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 121(2), pages 706-735, April.
    6. Stuart Baumann, 2015. "Putting it off for later," Edinburgh School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 260, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dauth, Christine & Lang, Julia, 2017. "Should the unemployed care for the elderly? : The effect of subsidized occupational and further training in elderly care," IAB-Discussion Paper 201713, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    2. Lang, Julia & Dauth, Christine, 2017. "Should the unemployed care for the elderly? The effect of subsidized occupational and further training in geriatric care," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168130, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. Cerqua, Augusto & Urwin, Peter & Thomson, Dave & Bibby, David, 2020. "Evaluation of education and training impacts for the unemployed: Challenges of new data," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    4. Thomas Kruppe & Julia Lang, 2018. "Labour market effects of retraining for the unemployed: the role of occupations," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(14), pages 1578-1600, March.
    5. Hagen, Tobias, 2016. "Econometric evaluation of a placement coaching program for recipients of disability insurance benefits in Switzerland," Working Paper Series 10, Frankfurt University of Applied Sciences, Faculty of Business and Law.
    6. Bernd Fitzenberger & Olga Orlanski & Aderonke Osikominu & Marie Paul, 2013. "Déjà Vu? Short-term training in Germany 1980–1992 and 2000–2003," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 289-328, February.
    7. Lechner, Michael & Wunsch, Conny, 2013. "Sensitivity of matching-based program evaluations to the availability of control variables," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 111-121.
    8. Christine Dauth & Julia Lang, 2019. "Can the unemployed be trained to care for the elderly? The effects of subsidized training in elderly care," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 543-555, April.
    9. Hagen, Tobias, 2016. "Econometric Evaluation of a Placement Coaching Program for Recipients of Disability Insurance Benefits in Switzerland," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145736, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    10. Mörk, Eva & Ottosson, Lillit & Vikman, Ulrika, 2021. "To work or not to work? Effects of temporary public employment on future employment and benefits," Working Paper Series 2021:12, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
    11. Caliendo, Marco & Mahlstedt, Robert & Mitnik, Oscar A., 2017. "Unobservable, but unimportant? The relevance of usually unobserved variables for the evaluation of labor market policies," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 14-25.
    12. Aderonke Osikominu, 2013. "Quick Job Entry or Long-Term Human Capital Development? The Dynamic Effects of Alternative Training Schemes," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(1), pages 313-342.
    13. Martin Biewen & Bernd Fitzenberger & Aderonke Osikominu & Marie Paul, 2014. "The Effectiveness of Public-Sponsored Training Revisited: The Importance of Data and Methodological Choices," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 32(4), pages 837-897.
    14. Marloes Lammers & Lucy Kok, 2021. "Are active labor market policies (cost-)effective in the long run? Evidence from the Netherlands," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(4), pages 1719-1746, April.
    15. Annabelle Doerr & Bernd Fitzenberger & Thomas Kruppe & Marie Paul & Anthony Strittmatter, 2017. "Employment and Earnings Effects of Awarding Training Vouchers in Germany," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 70(3), pages 767-812, May.
    16. David Card & Jochen Kluve & Andrea Weber, 2018. "What Works? A Meta Analysis of Recent Active Labor Market Program Evaluations," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 16(3), pages 894-931.
    17. Rainer Eppel & Helmut Mahringer, 2012. "Do wage subsidies work in boosting economic inclusion? Evidence on e," EcoMod2012 4065, EcoMod.
    18. Guido W. Imbens & Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2009. "Recent Developments in the Econometrics of Program Evaluation," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 47(1), pages 5-86, March.
    19. Katharina Dengler, 2019. "Effectiveness of sequences of classroom training for welfare recipients: what works best in West Germany?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(1), pages 1-46, January.
    20. Aderonke Osikominu, 2021. "The dynamics of training programs for the unemployed," IZA World of Labor, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), pages 277-277, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    training for the unemployed; budgetary conditions; administrative data; Germany;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • J68 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Public Policy
    • H43 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - Project Evaluation; Social Discount Rate

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:aluord:1608. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/euckede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.