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Can We Predict The Outcome Of The International Football Tournaments : The Case Of Euro 2000?

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Author Info
Ferda Halicioglu (The University of Greenwich, London)

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Abstract

This paper statistically analyses and attempts to predict the most likely winners of the Euro 2000 football tournament on the basis of the seasonal coefficients of variation (CVs) of the end-of-season points, which were computed from the top division final standings of participating countries of Euro 2000. The CV values computed from over ten seasons for the respective countries were used as a sole measurement value to rank the countries and to determine the most likely winners of Euro 2000. According to the three scenarios (long-term, mid-term, and short-term) based on the respective CV values of fifteen countries, France appeared to be the most likely country to win Euro 2000 and was closely followed by Spain.

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Microeconomics with number 0503008.

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Date of creation: 11 Mar 2005
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpmi:0503008

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Related research
Keywords: Football; Ranking; UEFA; Sports forecasts.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C40 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - General
C49 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Other

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