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Research on the Prediction of the likely Winners of the Euro 2008 Football Tournament

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  • Halicioglu, Ferda

Abstract

The objective of this research is to provide a statistical measurement to predict the likely winners of international football tournaments with particular reference to the Euro 2008 football tournament. This research argues that there exists a positive relationship between the competitive balance and success in international football tournaments. The level of the competitive balance in a domestic football league is measured by the seasonal coefficients of variation (CV) of the end-of-season points. The CV values are employed as ranking indicators between the contesting countries in international football tournaments to predict the likely winners. The seasonal CV values are computed from the top divison football leagues of participating countries of Euro 1996, Euro 2000, Euro 2004, and Euro 2008, in order to rank and to predict the likely winner of these tournaments. The results indicate that the higher the level of domestic competition the better chance of winning an international football tournament. The CV ranking is also compared to UEFA ranking and to the odds of some well known bookmakers in predicting the likely winners of the Euro 2008 football tournament. On the basis of the overall results, this research predicts that the likely winners of the Euro 2008 football tournament would be France, Spain or Germany.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 15567.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:15567

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Keywords: Competitive balance; Football; Ranking; UEFA; Sports forecasts.;

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References

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  1. Sloane, Peter J, 1971. "The Economics of Professional Football: The Football Club as a Utility Maximiser," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 18(2), pages 121-46, June.
  2. Brad R. Humphreys, 2002. "Alternative Measures of Competitive Balance in Sports Leagues," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 3(2), pages 133-148, May.
  3. Ferda HALICIOGLU, 2005. "The Degree Of Competition In The European Football Leagues: A Statistical Approach," Others 0508001, EconWPA.
  4. Peter J. Sloane, 2000. "The Regulation of Professional Team Sports," IASE Conference Papers 0003, International Association of Sports Economists.
  5. Peel, David A & Thomas, Dennis A, 1988. "Outcome Uncertainty and the Demand for Football: An Analysis of Match Attendances in the English Football League," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 35(3), pages 242-49, August.
  6. Joshua Utt & Rodney Fort, 2002. "Pitfalls to Measuring Competitive Balance With Gini Coefficients," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 3(4), pages 367-373, November.
  7. Jeffery Borland, 2003. "Demand for Sport," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(4), pages 478-502, Winter.
  8. Kelly Goossens, 2006. "Competitive Balance in European Football - Comparison by Adapting Measures: National Measure of Seasonal Imbalance and Top 3," IASE Conference Papers 0620, International Association of Sports Economists.
  9. Raymond Stefani, 1997. "Survey of the major world sports rating systems," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(6), pages 635-646.
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Cited by:
  1. Halicioglu, Ferda, 2012. "An empirical study of relationship between FIFA world ranking and domestic football competition level: the case of Turkey," MPRA Paper 35662, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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