This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

A Model of Primary and Secondary Waves in Investment Cycles

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Guido Fioretti (University of Rome "La Sapienza" and University of Stuttgart)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

Schumpeter maintained that oscillations of macroeconomic variables are only the "secondary wave" of business cycles, a reflex of more fundamental "primary waves" at the microeconomic level caused by the innovative activity of entrepreneurs. Uniting Schumpeter's concern for innovation with Keynes' concern for uncertainty and expectations formation, this article focuses on the behaviour of entrepreneurs confronting uncertainty caused by innovation. Entrepreneurs' behaviour is reconstructed by modelling the functioning of their cognitive processes when innovations appear. Recognition of the possibilities opened up by a successful innovation generates a state of optimism in the minds of single entrepreneurs, which eventually propagates to the whole economy triggering an investments upswing. likewise, unsuccessful innovations can trigger a downswing.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://129.3.20.41/eps/mic/papers/0207/0207014.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Microeconomics with number 0207014.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: 18 Aug 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpmi:0207014

Note: Type of Document - PDF; pages: 34; figures: included. Author's home page is at
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://129.3.20.41

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (EconWPA).

Related research
Keywords: Uncertainty; Innovation; Investments; Cognitive Processes;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
O30 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Technological Change - - - General
E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Capital; Investment; Capacity
E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation
E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Michael D. Ryall, 1996. "Entrepreneurs: Self-Confident Agents Busting Self-Confirming Equilibria," Working Papers 96-08-068, Santa Fe Institute.
  2. Calcagnini, Giorgio & Saltari, Enrico, 2000. "Real and Financial Uncertainty and Investment Decisions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 491-514, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. George, Anita & Morisset, Jacques, 1995. "Does Price Uncertainty Really Reduce Private Investment? A Small Model Applied to Chile," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 27(6), pages 517-22, June.
    Other versions:
  4. Parameswaran Gopikrishnan & Vasiliki Plerou & Xavier Gabaix & H. Eugene Stanley, 2000. "Statistical Properties of Share Volume Traded in Financial Markets," Quantitative Finance Papers cond-mat/0008113, arXiv.org. [Downloadable!]
  5. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1993. "Income Distribution, Political Instability, and Investment," NBER Working Papers 4486, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Silverberg, Gerald & Lehnert, Doris, 1993. "Long waves and 'evolutionary chaos' in a simple Schumpeterian model of embodied technical change," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 9-37, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Kregel, J A, 1976. "Economic Methodology in the Face of Uncertainty: The Modelling Methods of Keynes and the Post-Keynesians," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 86(342), pages 209-25, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Ricardo J. Caballero, 1997. "Aggregate Investment," NBER Working Papers 6264, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Harchaoui, Tarek M & Lasserre, Pierre, 2001. "Testing the Option Value Theory of Irreversible Investment," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(1), pages 141-66, February.
    Other versions:
  10. Price, Simon, 1995. "Aggregate Uncertainty, Capacity Utilization and Manufacturing Investment," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 27(2), pages 147-54, February.
  11. Luigi Guiso & Giuseppe Parigi, 1999. "Investment And Demand Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(1), pages 185-227, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Driver, Ciaran & Moreton, David, 1991. "The Influence of Uncertainty on UK Manufacturing Investment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(409), pages 1452-59, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Witt, Ulrich, 1998. "Imagination and leadership - The neglected dimension of an evolutionary theory of the firm," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 161-177, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Mark E. Doms & Timothy Dunne, 1998. "Capital Adjustment Patterns in Manufacturing Plants," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(2), pages 409-429, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  15. Lane, David, et al, 1996. "Choice and Action," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 43-76, February.
    Other versions:
  16. Colin Camerer & Dan Lovallo, 1999. "Overconfidence and Excess Entry: An Experimental Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 306-318, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Goel, Rajeev K & Ram, Rati, 1999. "Variations in the Effect of Uncertainty on Different Types of Investment: An Empirical Investigation," Australian Economic Papers, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(4), pages 481-92, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Tobin, James, 1969. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Caballero, Ricardo J. & Pindyck, Robert S., 1992. "Uncertainty, investment, and industry evolution," Working papers 3460-92., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  20. Caballero, Ricardo J, 1991. "On the Sign of the Investment-Uncertainty Relationship," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 279-88, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Quah, D., 1993. "One Business Cycle and One Trend From(Many) Many Disaggregates," Papers 550, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
    Other versions:
  22. G. Fioretti, 1996. "A Concept of Complexity for the Social Sciences," Working Papers wp96144, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  23. Russell Cooper & John Haltiwanger & Laura Power, 1999. "Machine Replacement and the Business Cycle: Lumps and Bumps," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(4), pages 921-946, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  24. Ricardo J. Caballero & Eduardo M. R. A. Engel & John C. Haltiwanger, 1995. "Plant-Level Adjustment and Aggregate Investment Dynamics," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1995-2), pages 1-54. [Downloadable!]
  25. repec:fth:coluec:625 is not listed on IDEAS
Full references

Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? You too can volunteer with RePEc.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-25.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.