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Testing the Option Value Theory of Irreversible Investment

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  • Harchaoui, Tarek M
  • Lasserre, Pierre

Abstract

This article statistically tests the option theory of irreversible investment. Using contingent claims valuation, we derive the value of options to invest in capacity, where the projects are endogenous to the economic circumstances prevailing at the investment date. We then test whether decisions made by Canadian copper mines are compatible with the trigger price implied by the theory. Our model explains investment size and timing satisfactorily from a statistical and an economic point of view; simulations with a mean-reverting process suggest that the results do not depend crucially on the assumption that price follows a geometric Brownian motion.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association in its journal International Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 42 (2001)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Pages: 141-66

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Handle: RePEc:ier:iecrev:v:42:y:2001:i:1:p:141-66

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References

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  1. Gordon, Robert J, 1992. "Measuring the Aggregate Price Level: Implications for Economic Performance and Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 663, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. George Koutoulas & Lawrence Kryzanowski, 1994. "Integration or Segmentation of the Canadian Stock Market: Evidence Based on the APT," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 27(2), pages 329-51, May.
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Cited by:
  1. Guido Fioretti, 2005. "A Model of Primary and Secondary Waves in Investment Cycles," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 24(4), pages 357-381, June.
  2. Xin Guo & Jianjun Miao & Erwan Morellec, 2002. "Irreversible Investment with Regime Shifts," FAME Research Paper Series rp99, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
  3. Turvey, Calum G. & Toole, Andrew A. & Kropp, Jaclyn D., 2007. "An Empirical Examination of the Relationship Between Real Options Values and the Rate of Investment," 2007 1st Forum, February 15-17, 2007, Innsbruck, Austria 6606, International European Forum on Innovation and System Dynamics in Food Networks.
  4. Margaret Insley & Tony Wirjanto, 2008. "Contrasting two approaches in real options valuation: contingent claims versus dynamic programming," Working Papers 08002, University of Waterloo, Department of Economics.
  5. Löfgren, Åsa & Millock, Katrin & Nauges, Céline, 2007. "Using Ex Post Data to Estimate the Hurdle Rate of Abatement Investments - An Application to the Swedish Pulp and Paper Industry and Energy Sector," Working Papers in Economics 249, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
  6. Luca Di Corato, 2010. "Profit Sharing under the Threat of Nationalization," Working Papers 2010.5, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  7. Robert Cairns, 2004. "Green Accounting for an Externality, Pollution at a Mine," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 27(4), pages 409-427, April.
  8. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00272041 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00261523 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Sumru Altug & Fanny S. Demers & Michel Demers, 2004. "Tax Policy and Irreversible Investment," CDMA Working Paper Series 200404, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
  11. repec:hal:cesptp:halshs-00272041 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Carlo Altomonte & Enrico Pennings, 2004. "The Hazard Rate of Foreign Direct Investment: A Structural Estimation of a Real Option Model," Working Papers 259, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  13. Asa Löfgren & Katrin Millock & Celine Nauges, 2008. "The effect of uncertainty on pollution abatement investments: measuring hurdle rates for Swedish industry," Working Papers 24847, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, France.
  14. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00343702 is not listed on IDEAS
  15. Muehlenbachs, Lucija, 2012. "Testing for Avoidance of Environmental Obligations," Discussion Papers dp-12-12, Resources For the Future.

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