Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Testing the Option Vakue Theory of Irreversible Investment

Contents:

Author Info

  • Harchaoui, T.
  • Lasserre, P.

Abstract

This paper statistically tests the theory of irreversible investment under uncertainty. Using dynamic programming and contingent claims valuation alternatively, we derive the value of options to invest in capacity, where the projects are endogenous to the economic circumstances prevailing at the investment date. We then test whether capacity investment decisions made by Canadian copper mines are compatible with the theory. The result speak strongly in favor of option theory as a theory of real investment; in particular, we provide a test which rejects the Net Present Value criterion, and our model explains both investment size and timing satisfactorily from a statistical and from an economic point of view. En recourrant tour à tour à la programmation dynamique et à la méthode des actifs contigents, nous établissons la valeur de l'option d'effectuer des investissements irréversibles réels qui sont sensibles aux paramètres économiques prévalant au moment de la décision. Nous testons ensuite si des investissements en capacité de production effectués par des mines de cuivre canadiennes sont conformes aux implications de la théorie. Les résultats sont fortements en faveur de celle-ci; nos données rejettent le critère de la valeur actuelle nette et le modèle explique tant la taille que la date des investissements d'une manière statistiquement et économiquement satisfaisante.

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Download Info

To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Universite Aix-Marseille III in its series G.R.E.Q.A.M. with number 95b04.

as in new window
Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: 1995
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fth:aixmeq:95b04

Contact details of provider:
Postal: G.R.E.Q.A.M., (GROUPE DE RECHERCHE EN ECONOMIE QUANTITATIVE D'AIX MARSEILLE), CENTRE DE VIEILLE CHARITE, 2 RUE DE LA CHARITE, 13002 MARSEILLE.
Phone: 04.91.14.07.70
Fax: 04.91.90.02.27
Email:
Web page: http://www.greqam.fr/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING; INVESTMENTS;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Gordon, Robert J, 1992. "Measuring the Aggregate Price Level: Implications for Economic Performance and Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 663, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. George Koutoulas & Lawrence Kryzanowski, 1994. "Integration or Segmentation of the Canadian Stock Market: Evidence Based on the APT," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 27(2), pages 329-51, May.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Enrico Pennings & Carlo Altomonte, 2006. "The Hazard Rate of Foreign Direct Investment: A Structural Estimation of a Real-option Model," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(5), pages 569-593, October.
  2. Xin Guo & Jianjun Miao & Erwan Morellec, 2002. "Irreversible Investment with Regime Shifts," FAME Research Paper Series rp99, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
  3. Muehlenbachs, Lucija, 2012. "Testing for Avoidance of Environmental Obligations," Discussion Papers dp-12-12, Resources For the Future.
  4. Di Corato, Luca, 2010. "Profit Sharing under the Threat of Nationalization," Working Papers 58292, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Department of Economics.
  5. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00272041 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00343702 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Löfgren, Åsa & Millock, Katrin & Nauges, Céline, 2008. "The effect of uncertainty on pollution abatement investments: Measuring hurdle rates for Swedish industry," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 475-491, December.
  8. LOFGREN Asa & MILLOCK Katrin & NAUGES Céline, 2007. "Using Ex Post Data to Estimate the Hurdle Rate of Abatement Investments - An application to the Swedish Pulp and Paper Industry and Energy Sector," LERNA Working Papers 07.06.227, LERNA, University of Toulouse.
  9. Turvey, Calum G. & Toole, Andrew A. & Kropp, Jaclyn D., 2007. "An Empirical Examination of the Relationship Between Real Options Values and the Rate of Investment," 2007 1st Forum, February 15-17, 2007, Innsbruck, Austria 6606, International European Forum on Innovation and System Dynamics in Food Networks.
  10. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00261523 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Sumru Altug & Fanny S. Demers & Michel Demers, 2004. "Tax Policy and Irreversible Investment," CDMA Working Paper Series 200404, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
  12. Guido Fioretti, 2005. "A Model of Primary and Secondary Waves in Investment Cycles," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 24(4), pages 357-381, June.
  13. Insley, M.C. & Wirjanto, T.S., 2010. "Contrasting two approaches in real options valuation: Contingent claims versus dynamic programming," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 157-176, April.
  14. Robert Cairns, 2004. "Green Accounting for an Externality, Pollution at a Mine," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 27(4), pages 409-427, April.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fth:aixmeq:95b04. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Thomas Krichel).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.