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Inactions and Spikes of Investment in Ethiopian Manufacturing Firms: Empirical Evidence on Irreversibility and Non-convexities

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  • Gebreeyesus, Mulu

    ()
    (UNU-MERIT)

Abstract

This paper provides empirical evidence on the effect of irreversibility and non-convexities in adjustment costs on firm investment decision based on 1996-2002 firm level data from the Ethiopian manufacturing. It relies on a rich census based panel data set that gives the advantage of disaggregating investment into different types of fixed assets. We document evidence of a large percentage of inaction intermitted with lumpy investment, which is consistent with irreversibility and fixed costs but not with the standard convex adjustment costs. The inaction is higher and investment lumpier for small firms. We complement the descriptive analysis with two econometric methods: a capital imbalance approach and a machine replacement model. With the capital imbalance approach we estimate the investment response of firms to their capital imbalance using a non-parametric Nadaraya-Watson kernel smoothing method. With the machinery replacement approach using a proportional hazard model that takes unobserved heterogeneity into account, we estimate the probability of an investment spike conditional on the length of the interval from the last investment spike.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT) in its series MERIT Working Papers with number 061.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:unm:unumer:2009061

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Related research

Keywords: Investment; irreversibility and adjustment costs; manufacturing; Ethiopia;

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  1. Caballero, Ricardo J., 1999. "Aggregate investment," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 12, pages 813-862 Elsevier.
  2. World Bank, 2004. "World Development Indicators 2004," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 13890, October.
  3. Rocío Sánchez-Mangas, 2001. "Estimation Of A Dynamic Discrete Choice Model Of Irreversible Investment," Statistics and Econometrics Working Papers ws015628, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Estadística y Econometría.
  4. Øivind Anti Nilsen & Fabio Schiantarelli, 2003. "Zeros and Lumps in Investment: Empirical Evidence on Irreversibilities and Nonconvexities," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1021-1037, November.
  5. Abel, Andrew B & Eberly, Janice C, 1996. "Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(4), pages 581-93, October.
  6. Ricardo J. Caballero & Eduardo M. R. A. Engel & John C. Haltiwanger, 1995. "Plant-Level Adjustment and Aggregate Investment Dynamics," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(2), pages 1-54.
  7. Russell W. Cooper & John C. Haltiwanger, 2000. "On the Nature of Capital Adjustment Costs," NBER Working Papers 7925, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Giuseppe Bertola & Ricardo J. Caballero, 1991. "Irreversibility and Aggregate Investment," NBER Working Papers 3865, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Rothschild, Michael, 1971. "On the Cost of Adjustment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 605-22, November.
  10. Heckman, James & Singer, Burton, 1984. "A Method for Minimizing the Impact of Distributional Assumptions in Econometric Models for Duration Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 271-320, March.
  11. Austan Goolsbee & David B. Gross, 1997. "Estimating Adjustment Costs with Data on Heterogeneous Capital Goods," NBER Working Papers 6342, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Verona, Fabio, 2013. "Investment dynamics with information costs," Research Discussion Papers 18/2013, Bank of Finland.
  2. Farla, Kristine, 2013. "Determinants of firms' investment behaviour: A multilevel approach," MERIT Working Papers 055, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).

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