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Estimation Of A Dynamic Discrete Choice Model Of Irreversible Investment

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  • Rocío Sánchez-Mangas

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Abstract

In this paper we propose and estimate a dynamic structural model of fixed capital investment at the firm level. Our dataset consists of an unbalanced panel of Spanish manufacturing firms. Two important features are present in this dataset. There are periods in which firms decide not to invest and periods of large investment episodes. These empirical evidence of infrequent and lumpy investment provides evidence in favour of irreversibilities and nonconvex capital adjustment costs. We consider a dynamic discrete choice model of irreversible investment with a general specification of adjustment costs including convex and nonconvex components. We use a two stage estimation procedure. In a first stage, we obtain GMM estimates of technological parameters. In the second stage, we obtain partial maximum likelihood estimates for the adjustment cost parameters. The estimation strategy builds on the representation of conditional value functions as a computable function of conditional choice probabilities. It is in the line of structural estimation techniques which avoid the solution of the dynamic programming problem.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Estadística y Econometría in its series Statistics and Econometrics Working Papers with number ws015628.

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Date of creation: Jun 2001
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Handle: RePEc:cte:wsrepe:ws015628

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  1. Aguirregabiria, V., 1997. "Estimation of Dynamic Programming Models with Censored Dependent Variables," UWO Department of Economics Working Papers 9711, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
  2. Oivind Anti Nilsen & Fabio Schiantarelli, 1996. "Zeroes and Lumps in Investment: Empirical Evidence on Irreversibilities and Non-Convexities," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 337., Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Nov 2000.
  3. repec:att:wimass:9106 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Hotz, J.V. & Miller, R.A. & Sanders, S. & Smith, J., 1992. "A Simulation Estimator for Dynamic Models of Discrete Choice," GSIA Working Papers 1992-13, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
  5. Victor Aguirregabiria & Cesar Alonso-Borrego, 2009. "Labor contracts and flexibility : evidence from a labor market reform in Spain," Economics Working Papers we091811, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía.
  6. Aguirregabiria, Victor, 1999. "The Dynamics of Markups and Inventories in Retailing Firms," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(2), pages 275-308, April.
  7. Ricardo J. Caballero & Eduardo M.R.A. Engel, 1996. "Explaining Investment Dynamics in U.S. Manufacturing: A Generalized (S,s) Approach," Documentos de Trabajo 12, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile.
  8. Richard Blundell & Steve Bond & Frank Windmeijer, 2000. "Estimation in dynamic panel data models: improving on the performance of the standard GMM estimator," IFS Working Papers W00/12, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  9. Ricardo J. Caballero & Eduardo M. R. A. Engel & John C. Haltiwanger, 1995. "Plant-Level Adjustment and Aggregate Investment Dynamics," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(2), pages 1-54.
  10. Alonso-Borrego, Cesar, 1998. "Demand for labour inputs and adjustment costs: evidence from Spanish manufacturing firms," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 475-497, December.
  11. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
  12. Ricardo J. Caballero, 1997. "Aggregate Investment," NBER Working Papers 6264, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Hotz, V Joseph & Miller, Robert A, 1993. "Conditional Choice Probabilities and the Estimation of Dynamic Models," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(3), pages 497-529, July.
  14. Richard Blundell & Steve Bond, 1999. "GMM estimation with persistent panel data: an application to production functions," IFS Working Papers W99/04, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  15. Rust, John, 1987. "Optimal Replacement of GMC Bus Engines: An Empirical Model of Harold Zurcher," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 999-1033, September.
  16. César Alonso-Borrego & Rocío Sánchez-Mangas, 2001. "Gmm Estimation Of A Production Function With Panel Data: An Application To Spanish Manufacturing Firms," Statistics and Econometrics Working Papers ws015527, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Estadística y Econometría.
  17. Giuseppe Bertola & Ricardo J. Caballero, 1991. "Irreversibility and Aggregate Investment," NBER Working Papers 3865, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Michael P. Keane & Kenneth I. Wolpin, 1994. "The solution and estimation of discrete choice dynamic programming models by simulation and interpolation: Monte Carlo evidence," Staff Report 181, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  19. Abel, Andrew B & Eberly, Janice C, 1996. "Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(4), pages 581-93, October.
  20. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
  21. Bertola, Giuseppe, 1998. "Irreversible investment," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 3-37, March.
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Cited by:
  1. Gebreeyesus, Mulu, 2009. "Inactions and Spikes of Investment in Ethiopian Manufacturing Firms: Empirical Evidence on Irreversibility and Non-convexities," MERIT Working Papers 061, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
  2. Gebreeyesus, Mulu, 2009. "Inactions and Spikes of Investment in Ethiopian Manufacturing Firms: Empirical Evidence on Irreversibility and Non-convexities," MERIT Working Papers 061, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).

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